Why be miserable? If you like wallowing in the decline of empire, there is plenty of that to found elsewhere. If being bummed out by the weather is for you, look outside. At least here there are still
eight inches of snow on the ground, it was -13 during the Super Bowl, and the ice on Lake Erie is getting blown around so much I can’t try to walk to the islands. Finally, there is sports. The American ice dancing couple definitely got hosed (I say as a guy who watched about two minutes of that) and the effervescent Jessie Diggins is battling through broken ribs.
Here is a #NoNegativity space. Xavier’s season hasn’t exactly been a tour de force. The at-large bid is absolutely not going to happen. Even if X wins out and loses in the Big East tournament final they’ll come up short. However, as Bryan pointed out on the pod, Xavier has excelled at keeping games against good teams close (except when they don’t, but shh). Let’s stay positive, though, and assume assume X is on a run of good form and can play close games. If they do that at the BET all they need to do is…
Avoid UConn
Let’s be honest, Xavier isn’t going to beat UConn. The Musketeers have lost to the Huskies by a total of 55 this season. That’s not a couple of bad bounces or a call here or there, that’s just getting bludgeoned. So let’s not play those guys again. Let’s just assume (and this is admittedly a bit of an assumption) that UConn is the one seed. That means X needs to stay out of the 8/9 game. Missing the 4/5 would also help, but the great news is that we may have already accomplished that!
Then, someone else has to beat UConn before the final. Currently ninth is Providence, who has taken UConn to OT and lost by six. Currently fourth is Seton Hall, who only lost by five in the only matchup so far. Creighton is fifth and got waxed the first team. Still there is some reason for hope here. Currently eighth? Xavier. Let’s avoid that.
Move up the standings
Xavier absolutely can’t land in that 8/9 game. That’s a death sentence. We also don’t want them to lose games to slide down, because that isn’t that much fun. Thankfully, moving up isn’t an impossible ask. Xavier is eighth at 4-9. Creighton is a distant fifth at 7-7, so that is likely beyond reach.
In between lie DePaul (5-9) and Georgetown (5-8). Both of those teams are very much within reach. X lost to DePaul, but beat Georgetown in a game most notable for Ed Cooley losing his rag and hitting a small child with a water bottle. Xavier is projected by KenPom to go 4-3 the rest of the way. Georgetown is projected to go 3-4 and DePaul split at 3-3. Steal Butler away sound good to anyone?
Close games
It basically comes down to Xavier winning close ones. If they land the six seed they get Marquette in that 6/11 game. Not an easy task, but an achievable one. Next would be St. John’s, whom X has played well twice, then someone from that 3/7/10 bunch in the semi-final. Xavier can be in those games and has shown it, they just need a full 40. Win that in you’re in the final and praying it isn’t UConn.
Finish seventh and the first game currently would be Butler. Winning that would be hilarious. The third seed right now is Villanova. Xavier has not played them yet, but the Wildcats under Kevin Willard are hot right now and have quietly been very good. Win that and you get 2/6/11 and then once again pray that UConn isn’t waiting in the final. Again, this is doable if X can win those close ones
Finish in the 8/9 game and you start looking at the Crown bracket.
