The San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys will meet on Sunday and continue a storied history between the two franchises. What was once a rivalry has turned into an avalanche, with the 49ers’ winning streak over the Cowboys spanning several years. Sunday is expected to be a high-scoring affair with two high-powered offenses, and Vegas believes it too, with the highest implied total of the weekend.
Former pass game coordinator and defensive backs coach for the Philadelphia Eagles under Vic Fangio,
Christian Parker took over as defensive coordinator for Dallas this season, and let’s just say things have not gone well. Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers know starting linebacker Dee Winters very well also. You can bet Shanahan and Brock Purdy will have the Cowboys’ linebackers in a bind constantly on Sunday.
What else will the 49ers look to exploit on Sunday? Here are three things to watch for Sunday.
The 49ers’ rushing attack
It may not feel like it, but the 49ers’ rushing attack is number one in several reliable metrics. Not only are the 49ers number one in EPA/play (0.14), success rate (52.1%), and total EPA (66.26; Buffalo is second at 53.09), but they also lead in EPA/ rush, with Buffalo at 0.05 and a league-high success rate on the ground of 50.4%.
Dallas’ defense ranks 27th in the NFL with an EPA/rush allowed of -0.02 and 25th in success rate allowed on the ground at 43.2%. After facing the worst run defense in the league in total rushing yards allowed last week, the 49ers face the second-worst run defense in Dallas with 1,327 rushing yards allowed and 4.99 rushing yards per attempt.
Even pushing to a heavier box count is unlikely, as Dallas has an 18.1% rate. That number is good for 30th in the NFL. That 40-carry number is in the 49ers’ sights for a second consecutive week.
49ers motion percentage
The 49ers hold a slight edge in motion percentage over the Miami Dolphins at 73.% to Miami’s 73.2% for the league high mark. It’s not just the amount of motion, but the types of motions, which include the often-used banana motions from Kyle Juszczyk. The advantages of the motion in the run game, to change number counts, and in the pass game to help identify coverages are a huge part of the offense.
Dallas is dead last with a 0.11 EPA allowed per play against motion. Good luck, Dallas. The 49ers rank fourth in motion at snap with 50.6%.
Dak Prescott against the 49ers’ preferred coverages
The 49ers are primarily a zone coverage defense, specifically Cover 3. Under Raheem Morris, the 49ers haven’t changed their defensive coverage base much, but there has been an increase in man coverage looks, even if the increase isn’t significant in comparison to zone looks.
Dak Prescott has punished Cover 3 with his third-highest EPA per play of 0.231. On 79 attempts, Prescott averages 7.9 YPA. Against Cover 0, which is a blitz coverage, Prescott struggled mightily with an EPA of -0.276, but he has only 29 attempts. The 49ers failed to pressure Michael Penix in Atlanta, and a similar output won’t go over well against Dallas and their offense.
Nick Bosa and DeForest Buckner must turn up the heat Sunday. Perhaps an Osa Odighizuwa revenge game?
