Real Madrid’s 2-1 victory at the Camp Nou saw Los Blancos convert two of their four big chances, while Barcelona failed to score from their two. Going into this weekend’s matches, Madrid had converted 38.5% (15 of 39) of their big chances in La Liga this season, compared with 42.5% (26 of 61) for Barcelona.
While still trailing their rivals, Madrid has significantly cut the gap. Four matches into the season, Barcelona sat at 46.2% (12 of 26) while Madrid were at 31.6% (6 of 19). Over the last six
league matches, Madrid are converting 45% of their big chances into goals, with Barcelona at 40%.
A major part of that improvement has been Kylian Mbappé, who after a slow start is now converting 40.9% (9 of 22) of his big chances in league play. Yan Diomandé is converting 50% (2 of 4) of his big chances in the Spanish first division, significantly better than Vinícius’s 16.7% (1 of 6).
Big-chance conversion is not a metric to be taken lightly when it comes to success. As shown in the graph below, Madrid’s three highest big-chance conversion rates over the last decade (46.2% in 2019/20, 43.6% in 2021/22 and 44.7% in 2023/24) coincide with their three La Liga title wins over that period. In 2020/21, when Atlético Madrid lifted the trophy, Los Colchoneros (48.2%) significantly outperformed Barcelona (41.0%) and Madrid (40.9%) in big-chance conversion.
What was particularly impressive about Madrid’s defensive performance in the latest Clásico is that Barcelona entered the match averaging a phenomenal 6.6 big chances per match (the highest in the top five leagues) and 6.0 big chances in the Champions League (tied with PSG for first; Madrid are third at 5.7 per match) this season. Holding Hansi Flick’s team to only two big chances speaks volumes about the defensive work done by José Mourinho’s side, led by the backline as well as Jude Bellingham (5 of 5) and Aurélien Tchouaméni (6 of 8), who won 11 tackles during the match — 10 of them on Madrid’s side of the pitch.
As shown in the graph below, Madrid’s 3.9 big chances per match heading into this weekend is the highest total at the club in any La Liga season over the past decade. That chance creation is led by Arda Güler (10, 2nd in La Liga) and Jude Bellingham (5, 8th in La Liga), both of whom rank in the top 10 for big chances generated in Spain’s top flight.
Starting with the 2017/18 season, Madrid have finished 1st or 2nd in La Liga for total big chances in all but two campaigns. In 2018/19, following the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo, they finished third with an average of 2.7 big chances per match, trailing Barcelona (3.4) and Sevilla (2.8). In 2023/24 they finished with 3.2 big chances per match, slightly behind Girona (3.4) and Barcelona (3.3) — the only season in that stretch in which neither Madrid nor Barcelona led La Liga in big chances.
Madrid’s 38.5% big-chance conversion rate so far this season in league play is above the 36.5% average among clubs from the top five leagues. Last season Los Merengues slightly outpaced the average conversion rate of teams in the top five leagues (38.1% vs. 37.5%). What seems clear is that continuing to close the gap with Barcelona in converting big chances will be crucial for Madrid to win La Liga this season.
