The last time Missouri beat a Top 10 team on the road was 2013, when they took down #7 Georgia 41-26.
That was not a full strength Georgia, mind you. And also not a Kirby Smart Georgia. This was a Mark Richt Georgia that was consistently contending for SEC titles but a few steps down from consistent national title contender.
And they were missing starting running backs, receivers, linemen…they were super beat up.
But! Missouri beat them anyway! And with a backup quarterback for half the game!
It can
be done but it’s tough to do. And if Missouri wants to stay in this new-found Playoff talk, then they can really only lose one, maybe two games for the rest of the year (and two would be pushing it).
Need I remind you, both Texas and Georgia are still on the docket. And a feisty as hell Kentucky. And Oklahoma.
Anyway. Let’s talk about this week’s most difficult matchup possible!
When Missouri Has the Ball
This game will be a strength-on-strength/weak-on-weak matchup for both teams, and the weak-on-weak is when Mizzou 33rd-ranked offense goes up against Ole Miss’ 57th ranked defense. Despite Pete Golding being a defensive coordinator by trade, the Rebel defense is surprisingly leaky, being nearly equally unable to stop the run (115th run defense) or the pass (79th) on a reliable basis. They allow offenses to be efficient (111th), explosive (127th), finish with over 4 points per opportunity (102nd), and are happy to have opposing offenses convert 3rd-downs (123rd). We’ve seen Missouri win the past two games by going hardcore in the pass and the run, but thankfully, Ole Miss is the type of defense where you can, well, do whatever you want. That’s southern hospitality for you!
I’m sure these previews seem repetitive at this point, but the way Missouri wins games on offense is pretty straight forward at this point.
Generate Explosives
This is how Missouri moves the ball in 2026. There is some efficiency in the pass game but, overall, the Tigers needs explosives to rack up their yards. Let’s set the expectation for what should be a massive shootout at 10 explosive plays generated.
Convert Third Downs
The best way to keep Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss offense from hurting you is to keep them on the sideline. Missouri’s 3rd-down conversions have gotten slightly better over the past few weeks and that will have to hold up against a terrible 3rd-down defense. Let’s shoot for at least a 60% success rate on 3rd-down.
Finish Your Dang Drives
Always at least 5 points per scoring opportunity. Missouri is currently averaging 4.61 on the year but over 5 points over the past two weeks. Let’s make it three weeks in a row!
When Ole Miss Has the Ball
It’s a good thin we sang Corey Batoon’s praises because the toughest test of the year (so far) is right around the corner. Few defenses do well against Heisman-caliber quarterbacks, but that’s what Batoon is scheming against %this week. Oh, also, the Ole Miss run game is 5th in the country with a 53.7% success rate and 17th in passing thanks to a 51.3% success rate. They aren’t a super explosive group (104th overall) so there is a chance that the Tigers could force a screw up over 13-14 plays. But few defenses have slowed down Ole Miss so far. Coach Batoon, time to earn that praise for yet another week.
Win 3rd Downs
As superhuman as Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebel offense seem to be, they are surprisingly pedestrian on 3rd-downs. 55th overall to be specific, but 38th in 3rd-and-short, 59th in 3rd-and-medium, and 117th in 3rd-and-7+ yards. That’s a good place to start! Holding them to under 40% success rate on 3rd-down would be a great indicator of overall defensive success.
Turn Them Over!
Ole Miss’ offensive line has been fantastic at limiting havoc plays so Mizzou will have to get handsy on some passes and generate some surprise opportunities for its offense. Ole Miss is willing to help that out, at least: the Rebel offense has played in a manner where they should have given up 7.3 turnovers so far and have actually given up 7, so the result matches the play. Additionally, their turnover margin ranks 76th in the country, so there will be opportunities to take advantage of. +2 turnover margin is the goal here.
Conclusion
Ole Miss is like a more extreme version of Florida, where the defense is quite a bit worse than the Gators while the offense is much better. And has a quarterback that can actually throw. And move. And, oh yeah, it’s on the road.
Eli Drinkwitz has never played against Ole Miss as Missouri’s coach, but he is 10-18 on the road, 9-24 against teams ranked higher in SP+, 8-20 against ranked teams, 1-12 against teams that finish ranked in the Top 10 of SP+, but is an even 6-6 in games that kick off at 2:30p central. So it’s not all bad!
Here’s to hoping all the walking wounded for last week are healed, the offense can take advantage of some noticeable gaps, and the defense can do enough to disrupt the Ole Miss attack. Win this and the potential positivity for this season gets raised noticeably. Lose and the Playoff is mostly out of the picture.
No pressure.
