On September 1, 2020 the Red Sox, in the midst of a crazy year in every sense of the word, decided to go for broke with a completely unhinged tweet:
The text on the tweet read “iykyk,” which stands for, “If you know, you know.” The Red Sox were referencing the team resetting the luxury tax in 2021. By not spending much in the offseason and offloading a few players at the 2020 deadline, the Red Sox were able to reset the penalty the team would pay for exceeding the luxury tax — also known as a the competitive
balance tax — in 2021.
At the moment Chaim Bloom was hired as GM, the Red Sox flipped the switch from “wanting to win” to “wanting efficiency.” While Theo Epstein often preached about building a “$100-million development machine,” for the Sox of 2020 and onward the goal was not just to have a supply of young (cheap) players coming up from the minors to fill needs, but to do that while staying under the luxury tax. Last year, the photo of John Henry and the cigar was supposed to indicate they were back.
Now that the Sox have recovered from the loss of Alex Bregman (since he’s changing his number to 3 is there going to be a Br3gman thing going on?) is adherence to the luxury tax going to be Craig Breslow’s downfall as it was for his predecessor?
Where we are
RosterResource puts the Red Sox at a Luxury Tax payroll at $265 million. For those keeping track at home, the tax thresholds for 2026 are $244 million, $264, $284, and $304. The Red Sox crossed the first threshold for the 2025 season and, before signing Suárez, were set to fall under the lowest threshold to once more “reset.”
One theme that was repeated many times this offseason was that, while the Sox have paid the second threshold of tax several times, they had not entered a season at that level. Instead, the Sox payroll would typically be somewhere between the first and second thresholds before the trade deadline and then go over while acquiring reinforcements in July.
So when the Red Sox were at about $243 million on Saturday when the news broke that the Chicago Cubs found a new third baseman, one legitimate thought was that Boston was done. Or at least done pending a trade of someone like Jarren Duran who would take a chunk of salary ($7.7 million) with him. Of course that wouldn’t clear room to add a big name free agent. Post-Willson Contreras, the budget to stay under the penalty threshold was limited. Even staying under the second threshold was unlikely, again, without moving Duran. (I’m just using Duran because he’s an outfielder — a surplus position, if there can ever be such a thing — who is making enough money to make a difference. I don’t want to see them trade him, even if I think it’s unlikely he’s on the Sox forever.)
Full throttle
Ranger Suárez was the 9th-rated free agent for FanGraphs and the 10th for MLB Trade Rumors. This is not a one-year pillow contract. It’s not a $2.5 million sixth inning guy who mostly shows up for mop-up work. This deal is a real commitment.
Reactionary or not, this one move catapulted the Sox into fifth in free agent spending this offseason. So long, Rockies. Boston has moved all the way up.
Next Steps
There is definitely a world in which the Red Sox trade Jarren Duran or whoever purely for salary relief and to get back under that second threshold. But that’s a dangerous game. Unless they find someone willing to take a good chunk of the Masataka Yoshida contract, it’s going to be hard to move a player owed money and, say, get that additional infielder.
Masa is not a bad player, he’s just a bad fit. Money aside, he’s a left-handed DH who doesn’t really hit for power. He’s not fast and can’t play left field. But he’s got bat-to-ball skills and can make contact rather than strike out when needed. That’s just a difficult player for this club to fit on the 26-man roster, especially at the price.
There is a bit not to like about Eugenio Suárez, but I had him down for a qualified smash as an Alex Bregman alternative. He is forecast to get 3 years and $63 million by MLBTR, and that’s not a deal I’d be super happy with. He’s old, posts a low-OBP, and doesn’t play third base particularly well (like a former occupant of the hot corner). But he’s got power. And he wouldn’t cost players via trade. It’s not ideal to pursue a 35-year-old who is looking at the end just over the horizon, and who wants a contract that takes him there. But if it’s not offered? Maybe he accepts less.
Marcelo Mayer might be the future. But he doesn’t have to be the present too. Mayer/Romy/Nate Eaton/David Hamilton are all in the mix to handle some outfield and first base, and then second and third (when needed) while also giving Trevor Story some time off. That’s a deep rotation of players. I don’t think they all even fit on the roster at one time.
Bo Bichette also looms large. Do the Red Sox really go wild and sign up for the better part of a decade with Bo Bichette at second base and a crew lead by Mayer at third? Sonny Gray likely comes off the books next season. Ranger and Bo would both be in the long-term plans. Although then we’re talking about going over the third luxury tax threshold in 2026 and dropping back to the second in 2027. Which feels unlikely unless Breslow already has the green light and was playing the market.
Signing Ranger Suárez might be the last big move for the Sox. We simply don’t know but have to hope that it is not. The signing might have been spurred by missing out on Alex Bregman and needing to act fast. Signing Bo Bichette too? That’s definitely a plan. With Bregman being such a late signing in 2025 as Breslow’s first major free agent deal, it’s hard to know if the team was waiting out the market or simply lucked out last year and their guy was still available. If Ranger Suárez and another player are signed, both after January 1, we really might be watching a clever, if frustrating, strategy unfold: The Craig Breslow Wait Them Out Challenge.
