This offseason, the Orioles acted like a team focused on the present. They gave out a big contract to a slugger on the “wrong side” of thirty. They traded a pitcher with four years of control for an outfielder that will be gone in a year. And they swapped a package of four prospects and one pick for a pitcher they hope will work out. It was a lot of movement, and much of it was done with 2026 in mind.
But as the team’s president of baseball operations Mike Elias has explained throughout his tenure,
he doesn’t make moves without considering the ripple effects. Trading away too many young players at once in pursuit of a short-term advantage will weaken the future. And Elias has told the fanbase that the full teardown and rebuild of the organization we experienced from 2019-21 was a one-time thing. Moving forward, he wants to win at the big league level while maintaining a “pipeline” of talent that constantly replenishes the roster in Baltimore.
The degree to which all of that has panned out to this point can be argued. The Orioles organization certainly feels stronger now than it was when Elias entered the fold. But the team’s lack of a playoff win and their steep dropoff in 2025 may have left a sour taste in the mouth of those that are tired of Elias’ theory of team building. A bounce back in the season ahead, including a deep-ish playoff run, could win him back some supporters.
On paper (which is all we have until games start), the Orioles are a solid major league squad entering the 2026 campaign. Most outlets project them for 85-87 wins, which would represent at least a 10-win improvement from 2025. If they are competitive, you would imagine Elias will supplement them with a few in-season additions that could add to that total. So in Elias’ mind, he has checked the box of building a competitive big league roster.
As the O’s have improved in the majors, the focus locally has understandably shifted away from the minors. But the talent level down on the farm is just as crucial to Elias’ philosophy. They don’t need to have the absolute top-ranked prospects, as they did when the likes of Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman were coming up, but the organization does need to churn out worthwhile youngsters in order to avoid any of those lengthy dips in form up in Baltimore.
So, how does the future look? Not bad!
Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers are widely considered Top 100 prospects. Basallo has already signed a long-term deal to be a slugger in the middle of the Orioles lineup for years to come. He’s got a solid .333/.455/444 line this spring. Beavers had a huge season in Triple-A last year, forcing those in the industry to take notice. Both of them are among the favorites to win Rookie of the Year, which would net the Orioles a draft pick in the process.
Don’t forget about Coby Mayo, a former top prospect in his own right, has plenty of years of team control remaining. Suddenly, the 24-year-old looks like one of the most important players on the team. He is going to get lots of playing time with Jordan Westburg on the shelf. So far this spring he is 8-for-19 with only one strikeout.
Outfielder Nate George and pitcher Trey Gibson won’t make as immediate of an impact, but they have both made it onto radars around the league in the last year. Some outlets have them listed among their “Top 100” prospects, or thereabouts. The Orioles have given each a taste of big league camp this year and they are viewed as future impact players for the club
Some newer faces are also flashing. Ike Irish, the O’s top pick in last year’s draft, is 4-for-4 in big league camp. Wehiwa Aloy, another high pick from 2025, is 2-for-3 with a walk and has gotten rave reviews out of camp. And there is, of course, the crazy line from Vance Honeycutt; 5-for-6 with four home runs.
On top of that, we are still waiting for the wave of talent to come from the Orioles, led by Elias, finally getting involved in Latin America. Basallo is the first major arrival, but more are coming. Lefty Luis De León could make it to Baltimore this summer. Infielder Aron Estrada could be here the year after. And big righty Esteban Mejia is one to watch with his big fastball. Oh, and the Orioles just signed one of the best classes of international free agents back in January.
Although it is an imperfect measure (and a few months out of date at this point), FanGraphs attempts to quantify the value of each minor league system. It is based on their perceived quality of each prospect. The Orioles have the most players that FG actually considers to be prospects, and they have the seventh-most valuable farm system in all of baseball. The average value of those prospects is below average, indicating that the Orioles are loaded up on fringier talents, but those sorts of players can be useful depth or packaged together for an impact player.
The main goal of Elias and the Orioles has to be to win games at the major league level. They didn’t do that enough in 2025, which forced them to adjust their approach to this past offseason. We saw a more aggressive version of the team’s front office. But they did it without abandoning the future. In fact, the players coming down the pike are pretty exciting. Hopefully they will be supplementing a contending team in the years to come.
