After struggling through April, Gabe Speier took a trip to the Injured List to let a little inflammation in his shoulder subside. What’s happened since then is a puzzle: His stuff looks better than ever, but while his ERA is a gorgeous 2.05, his xERA, FIP, and SIERA are at all-time highs for his Mariners career.
Despite having a down year overall, the April part is easy to dismiss as having been affected by his injury. Those who are obsessed with a single idea will try to blame this on Speier’s time
in the World Baseball Classic this spring, but he dismisses that, saying, “I felt really good in spring. I felt really good in the WBC.”
Personally, I was more concerned by the “impulsive” haircut he got just before the season started. His traditional look calls to mind a Waffle House line cook, holding the whole restaurant together, punching every ticket, desperate to get his ten so he can smoke a cigarette. It’s the perfect lefty reliever energy.
The haircut cleaned him up, like someone who’d recently joined the military. It clashed, and I think the bad April results were downstream of that.
Since coming back from the IL, as his hair has grown out, his power’s coming back with it. It’s just not leading to as good of results as you’d expect.
Over parts of seven seasons, Speier had never had a month in which his average fastball topped 96 mph. Until now. In his first game back from the IL, on May 26, he was at 94.4, which is in line with his career norms. But then the next game was up to 95.3. Then 95.8. It kept climbing so that by June 21, he was at 97.8 mph, including throwing the two fastest pitches of his career. Nine of his ten fastest pitches ever have come in the past four weeks. His sinker hasn’t gotten quite that obscene, but it too is coming in hotter than it ever has.
While velo’s always a paramount goal, Speier says this wasn’t something he was working on specifically and seemed as surprised as anyone: “Mostly just feeling good, I’d say.”
Velo matters for everyone, but we’ve seen the difference it can make for Speier in particular. The difference between his breakout 2023 and his stepback 2024 was the difference between 95 and 93. The primary cause there was health. But the velo was the first step down the causal chain, and then the results. Seeing him at 96 tantalizes, even if the results haven’t shown up yet.
But it’s odd that he hasn’t been able to harness his new velocity into better results. Despite the extra tick, he hasn’t been as dominant as you’d expect, striking out just 16.7% of batters while walking 9.3% since returning from the IL.
One possibility is that the Mariners aren’t taking the best advantage of that velocity, dialing his four-seamer usage back from last year when it worked so well despite being slower.
Making a change isn’t that odd for Speier. For a three-pitch pitcher, he’s evolved more than you’d think. In his first conversation with the Mariners after getting picked up in November 2022, Pete Woodworth immediately suggested throwing his sinker to lefties more. It was a major change that fueled his breakout season. In 2025, his plan shifted, increasing his four-seamer usage to (successfully) try to detonate the platoon disadvantage against righties.
He’s always used both fastballs, which he knows is important since each is better for playing off the other. But at this point, he’s less involved in the strategy and happy just to trust his catchers. “I honestly rely on my catcher and what they’re calling,” he said. “I don’t really second-guess what they’re putting down.” Watch him on the mound, and try to count how many times he shakes off catcher. It’s one of the benefits of the high-leverage role he’s worked himself into: “They’ve run through the lineup a few times by the time I get out there.”
What they’re calling these days is close to an equal distribution. Each of his four-seamer, sinker, and slider are coming in between 29% and 39% of the time. Perhaps pushing the four-seamer button a little more will help.
But maybe the pitch mix they’re calling for suggests that the team isn’t worried. There’s reason to think they’re right. The two keys I’m always watching for Gabe, his chase rate and first-pitch-strike rate are worse this year too, but not by as much as his strikeouts and walks. They’re about halfway between his bad 2024 and his excellent 2025. So maybe the team is betting that his success is lurking underneath the surface and keeping his pitches in equal balance will help tip hitters off balance.
I’m betting he’s going to get better regardless of the pitch mix. The velo is the first-order change, so the results should follow, but I’d definitely put more money on that bet if they started calling for the four-seamer more too. It’s not a sure thing, but I’m buoyed by the fact that his hair continues to grow as well.
