Midway through June, I believe it is time we can all believe that the postseason is a real possibility for the St. Louis Cardinals this year. FanGraphs agrees, putting the Cardinals above a 50% chance to play in October, but we would still be smart to temper overall expectations for this season. The overall strategy remains to build towards the future and Chaim Bloom has been clear that the team is more likely to subtract than add to the major league roster at the Trade Deadline.
Even though Bloom
will still look to deal from the active roster, he has not been shy to shake things up as he has gone a different direction in recent weeks. Beyond the promotion of Blaze Jordan for a tough-to-watch Nolan Gorman, he called up Jimmy Crooks and demoted Victor Scott II in order to stay competitive but future-focused. Rather than dumpster dive on the waiver wire, Bloom has used upper minors talent to supplant the major league roster in order to evaluate yet still hope to catch lightning in a bottle.
Since expiring contracts like Dustin May and JoJo Romero could (should?) be traded regardless of postseason position, Bloom would likely be searching for prospect return rather than big league talent back. If it were a major league player, I would think it would be similar to Hunter Dobbins or Richard Fitts in terms of team control. Because the Cardinals minor league system is so talented, I would prefer this way of dealing as 26-man trades open up spots for the organization’s guys to get their chance.
In a big league sell-off, opportunity awaits for Cardinals prospects
Out: Dustin May
In: Hunter Dobbins
Duh. Let’s get this one out of the way. It may not be the coolest, but it is the simplest and cleanest move for a guy like Dobbins to get his extended look. Another righty with lower strikeout rates, yes, but he can also touch 97mph with a solid splitter and breaking ball that could be further unlocked for more whiff.
If an extension could be worked out with May, I would be open to that conversation. The questions around the 2027 season make me wary of a one-year addition, but anything going into his age-30 season and beyond is also a yellow flag for me. I had hoped for a two-year deal at the time of signing, but in this mutual option reality, it makes the most sense to get decent return for a solid rental starter.
Honorable mentions for this spot would be Brycen Mautz (seen later) and Quinn Mathews. I would like to see Mathews get his shot since he will have to be added to the 40-man this offseason anyway. In a May to Dobbins scenario, Mathews or Mautz could end up taking on the Dobbins spot starter role until something more long-term opens up.
Out: JoJo Romero
In: Brycen Mautz
I am still not sure if the Cardinals held onto Romero too long or if his value is just what it is as a solid backend lefty reliever. However, he is still in St. Louis and pitching fine but is on the expiring deal that makes him expendable, even if the team remains competitive. Rather than replace him with a waiver wire lefty, Mautz could make his return to the majors in a relief role.
After getting his first start wiped out by rain, the Cardinals kept him active for a bulk relief role before sending him back to Memphis. He has remained in the rotation since the demotion and has kept his strikeout stuff in his shorter outings. Mautz has not gone over five innings in a month, so a bullpen role is an easy way to manage his workload but give him more major league experience.
The left-handed relief options have been thin for the Cardinals, seemingly by design in recent years. When they return to consistent relevance, I would hope a high-leverage lefty would be priority, either through development, trade, or with the pocketbook.
Out: Ryne Stanek
In: Tink Hence
Unlike May, Ryne Stanek actually got a more realistic two-year deal, with the Cardinals holding a $6 million club option for the question mark of a 2027 season. They could realistically hold onto him if he becomes a lockdown eighth inning guy, especially if Bloom cashes out on Riley O’Brien as he could then slide into the closer role for a team still holding a postseason spot. After that blowup against Minnesota, though, I think we are all on the train of finding Stanek somewhere to go besides St. Louis.
Assuming he is dealt somewhere desperate for an experienced bullpen arm, I am giving Tink Hence his opportunity to crack the majors. It may be the plethora of Bowman 1st cards talking, but the Cardinals need to give Hence his shot at the big league level before fully throwing in the towel on the former top prospect. He is working in the minors still and has flashed mid-90s on his fastball while coming out the bullpen. Like the others, Tink is on the 40-man so, if healthy, give him his shot.
After getting his feet wet as a reliever this year and assuming he stays healthy through the season, Tink could then shift his focus back to the starting rotation or stay in a consistent reliever work pattern if he was effective in relief.
Out: Riley O’Brien
In: Max Rajcic
In the season’s first two months, if you mentioned trading Riley O’Brien you were an uneducated baseball person because there is no way you trade the best closer in baseball. Well, the 31-year-old with health and consistency issues has demonstrated some of his tight-roping tendencies in recent weeks as his effectiveness waned. Even with four years of control remaining, taking advantage of O’Brien being on the mound and performing at a high level is the best move.
Assuming Bloom will not be able to get a major-league ready closer in return and if Stanek gets traded, the ninth inning is questionable at best. In the best case scenario, Matt Svanson is back to form and can slide into the closer role to end the year, thus leaving the middle innings open for a revolving door of tryouts. Getting one of those spots for me is starter turned reliever Max Rajcic.
Like Mathews, Rajcic could be selected in the Rule 5 draft if he is not added to the 40-man roster this offseason so, if you are following along, my wish is to give him that shot now and see if he is worth the protection in the winter. The righty has seen a massive jump in his stuff across the board this year, commanding the strike zone better than before while striking out over a batter an inning. Racjic has hit a blip in the past couple outings, but his overall body of work is worthy of a deeper look.
My honorable mention here goes to Luis Gastelum. The righty also needs to be added to the 40-man this offseason and has a devastating changeup that can be used against righties or lefties, allowing Marmol to play matchups despite the handedness. Gastelum has been trending in a better direction lately than Rajcic, but I could see both of these guys making their debuts at some point later this season.
Out: Lars Nootbaar
In: Joshua Baez
My article on Lars Nootbaar last Sunday went a few different directions and I am ultimately settled on whatever Chaim does involving Noot, I’ll just nod my head and say okay. In the winter, I needed Noot healthy so the Cardinals could trade him ASAP. Now that he IS healthy, he is mashing baseballs like his peripheral stats always said he could. He has only been back for a few games so far, but we know more about Nootbaar than we do say… Joshua Baez.
Even though he is the oldest on the team, Noot is only 28-years-old and has a year of control remaining. His veteran leadership is a 180 compared to that of Arenado and Goldschmidt, so Noot’s personality figures to play well with the young clubhouse if Bloom decides to keep him around for this year and into next. Should Bloom go the other way, though, Joshua Baez is as close to knocking on the door to the majors as anyone with his seemingly daily Memphis moonshots.
The 22-year-old Baez completely transformed his offensive approach last season and bolted into top prospect lists after maintaining those changes in the 2026 season. After hitting 24 homers in his first 232 games, Baez has smoked 38 homers in the 177 game since while also wreaking havoc on the bases. He trimmed his K-rate to 20% last season, but it has trickled back into the 30% range, although that has not sapped Baez from his power stroke. As of Saturday morning, Baez has 19 homers to tie him for the lead in all of Triple-A. He also has another 12 stolen bases and has generally graded as a solid defender in the corner outfield. Memphis has been deploying him in centerfield more often lately, so Baez could become a major league outfielder even if Noot is held onto.
Out: Justin Bruihl
In: Cooper Hjerpe
This last one is a cheapie because the article title is trade chips and Justin Bruihl is more of a cut candidate unless another team gets desperate for lefty help. I know Justin Bruihl has “done well lately” but I agreed to a point. In our VEB group text, Jake said “Justin Bruihl has a 2.70 ERA since May 3rd”, which is correct. The Cardinals have been playing well since then, so I looked at his outings. My response, “Not by accident for Bruihl. The only close games were extra innings in Cincy and Friday Cubs game. Their record in his games 3-10.”
No slight to Bruihl as he has done his job and was helped by the team giving him the best opportunity to succeed. He is like a referee or umpire: you don’t notice them unless they really mess up. When the Cardinals are consistently in close games, Bruihl has to pitch in those spots more often. In order to prevent that from happening, I decided to promote Cooper Hjerpe to the bigs to give the Cardinals a chance to stay competitive even while using their youngsters.
I am on the record as not being as high on Hjerpe as others, and that is mostly due to his unorthodox delivery that yes, Chris Sale can do, but few others replicate. The lefty was durable in college but has missed significant time with different arm injuries these past couple seasons. Hjerpe is now rehabbing and while he has not pitched above Double-A, he is, again, on the 40-man roster so move him on up.
I did not include any catchers because I do not know the interest around the league in Pedro Pages or Yohel Pozo, nor do I see the Cardinals moving on from Ivan Herrera and Jimmy Crooks for the rest of the season, barring injury. If they do, then Leo Bernal will move on up and then the catching freight train continues rolling. I believe Bloom will avoid dealing from the catching depth this season and will let the backstops sort themselves out throughout the year.
I still expect the Cardinals to remain competitive throughout the rest of this season and even make slight additions on the waiver wire as the year goes on. I do not necessarily see all the above trade candidates as locks to be moved, but I do believe Bloom will make a move or two. In those trades, I foresee prospects as being priority, so the replacements on the roster will have to come from within.
Did I miss any trade candidates? Any non-roster guys you believe should get a shake?
Thanks as always!
