The Portland Trail Blazers are going through a dip in their season, one of a half-dozen that have plagued them alongside several high spots. After consecutive losses to the Charlotte Hornets and Atlanta Hawks over the weekend, questions have popped up in the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag regarding several concerns, a couple of which are encapsulated by this offering:
Dave,
I can’t stand the offense when [Jerami] Grant takes over. I’m getting frustrated with Jrue [Holiday] as well. We slow down. It’s all isolation
based. What happened to the quick ball movement we’re supposed to have? And why isn’t [Head Coach Tiago] Splitter starting Scoot? He’s quick and he passes, he could fix half of this right now.
Why play the old guys so much? It’s our crutch right now.
Devon
So much to unpack here.
Portland’s offense was anemic this weekend. They tallied 93 and 101 points in their two games off of season averages of 115. That’s not a regression, that’s full-on Thelma and Louise off a cliff.
Before we leap to conclusions, though, we need to factor in the obvious causes. The Blazers are missing their two leading scorers, Deni Avdija and Shaedon Sharpe. Between them they account for 46 points per game, on average, or about 40% of Portland’s total production. That’s a huge number. It stands to reason that removing 40% of anybody’s offense will cause suffering and pain no matter who steps in that gap.
Acknowledging that, the question becomes, “What do we do?”
Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant have these characteristics:
- They’re veterans, having seen hundreds of NBA games for multiple teams under a variety of circumstances. They’re not going to get rattled or surprised.
- They’re scorers, each having averaged 20 per game at one point or another in their careers.
- They can score with the ball in their hands regardless of what else is going on. They are potential options in 100% of possessions, not just tailored and set-up ones.
Here is a list of all the other Blazers who played this weekend:
- Toumani Camara
- Donovan Clingan
- Kris Murray
- Vit Krejci
- Scoot Henderson
- Robert Williams III
- Matisse Thybulle
- Blake Wesley
- Sidy Cissoko
- Yang Hansen
- Javonte Cooke
To whom else on that list do those three characteristics apply? Williams and Thybulle are veterans but they’re neither high-scorers nor capable of getting their own shot at a high level. Henderson and Wesley can get shots but aren’t volume scorers or experienced. Camara and Clingan are opportunistic and can be devastating in the right circumstances, but neither one is a multifaceted scorer. In fact, pretty much everybody on the list has a serious hole in their offensive game that would preclude them from using possessions, and taking shots, in bulk.
That’s why it’s absolutely no surprise that, absent Sharpe and Avdija, Jrue Holiday and Jerami Grant have become Portland’s workhorses on offense.
It’s also unsurprising that defenses know this. They’re crowding Holiday and Grant as soon as they put the ball on the floor, daring them to make a move, trying to force them to pass. Who besides the veteran duo are opponents really scared of? Camara standing alone at the arc for sure. Clingan deep in the paint, especially off of the glass. Maybe Scoot on the drive, but even then they can play him for the shot for the same reason. Defenses aren’t scheming as much as they’re salivating.
This, not system or intent, is slowing down Portland’s motion and ball movement right now. I’m not saying it’s great otherwise! I’m saying there’s no chance to find quick moves or easy (completed) assists in the halfcourt right now unless the defense completely falls asleep. The dribbler has to make two moves to get enough of an edge to even think about a shot. Failing that, they’re going to pass to a player who will—putting it charitably—miss.
“Go young!” we say. “Get quicker!” It’s not going to help. You’re not forcing the defense to do more work even if the person holding the ball is technically a smidge faster. Vit Krejci, Kris Murray, and Sidi Cissoko can be impeded with a single defender. That makes the offense slower and more stagnant, not more fluid. Blake Wesley is lightning fast and can get free, but then what? Freedom to what end? He’s not capable of scoring 40. If he passes the ball, we’re right back where we started.
We’ll talk more about Scoot Henderson specifically tomorrow, but it’s worth noting that this hasn’t gotten better when he’s been on the floor, either in place of the veterans or alongside them. He shot 25% in the Charlotte game, 33% versus Atlanta. He combined for 7 assists and 5 turnovers in the two outings. That’s not any kind of solution, let alone a magic one. We can claim that development should be prioritized over winning. That’s not the team’s priority right now, but I understand the argument. It falls hollow when neither is happening.
Whatever Portland’s offense is supposed to be—and I have quibbles with it in normal times—this isn’t it. The Blazers have a limited number of initiators right now, all of whom outside of Holiday are mercurial. They have no finishers at all in the halfcourt save Grant. That’s where this story starts and ends. If a restaurant only has ground beef patties and cheddar in the cooler, I guess you better order a cheeseburger. You can try for pasta alfredo, but with those ingredients, it’s going to suck.
Right now, the answer to the question of whether the Blazers should go old or young is, “Neither.” They don’t have the right people out there to make it work either way. Until they do, the offense will continue to suffer and there’s not much they can do about it. If we’re going to complain about anything, it might be why the defense isn’t more consistent even in this offensive slump. But that’s a subject for another Mailbag entirely.
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible! And stay tuned tomorrow for Part 2: All About Scoot!
