As a player who arrived in the organization in the 2016 draft, Keegan Akin is one of the longest-tenured Orioles. We have been hearing about him as a prospect and then seeing him as a major league player for more than a decade. After all of that, Akin came into 2026 as a platform year heading into free agency. His up-and-down Orioles tenure is likely ending on a down note after a season where he was pretty bad until a June injury turned out to require season-ending Tommy John surgery.
One thing that
I take as a given when considering relievers in general is the concept of year-to-year volatility. At least one guy is going to be better than people thought, and at least one guy is going to be worse than people thought. You might be able to make an educated guess which ends up being which, but you never really know. The same guy can fit both of these descriptions across multiple seasons.
Akin, over his time with the team, has embodied this about as well as anybody. After he failed his way out of the rotation in 2021, he was a speculative reliever conversion heading into 2022. He was pretty good! Then, out of nowhere, he was terrible in 2023, all while keeping pretty good peripheral stats. Akin returned to good results in 2024 – though the team had zero trust in him and was almost fanatical in only using him in low-leverage situations – and was also good in 2025, with concerning peripherals last year making him more of a question mark heading into 2026.
The alarm bells that were sounding in his under-the-hood metrics a year ago turned out to be for real. Akin missed the first month of the season due to a groin strain, then as he made his way back from the injured list, he showed how his season was going to go by giving up six runs in the span of an inning during a 17-1 blowout loss to the Red Sox on April 25. That was the first that we saw of Akin this season. What a disaster.
Every fan has their guys where what you mostly remember about them are the times that they stunk. I’ll be honest with you: Akin is one of those guys for me. The idea that Akin had three separate seasons where he had an ERA of 3.41 or lower escapes from my brain every time it goes in. I remember all of the times that he was bad. Akin giving up six runs in an inning is basically what I expected every time. He did it again this year, turning a close contest against the Nationals on May 16 into a 13-3 laugher by giving up six runs while getting only one out.
In a classic of the “Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?” genre, Akin was fine if you take out those two outings. He pitched 22 other games and allowed just four earned runs in those games. Maybe if he had July, August, and September to keep pitching, he would have been able to turn around the unsightly 5.68 ERA.
The Orioles probably would have given him chances to do that, following the pattern they established over multiple years with Cionel Pérez, who bombed early on only to keep sticking around on the roster and salvage his numbers somewhat. There are some good things on his Statcast page, namely that batters weren’t hitting the ball hard off of him because they were so infrequently squaring him up. There are also some not-so-good things: Akin was not making batters swing and miss, posting the lowest K/9 of his career, just 6.0. Some relievers can do well without that many strikeouts; teammate Albert Suárez is one of them. Many do not do so well.
Akin did not get to pitch the last three months to see whether he could improve things. His season was cut short when he injured his elbow at the end of June. This led to mid-July Tommy John surgery that will probably knock him out of action for nearly all, if not all, of the 2027 season as well. Akin will be 33 years old by the time he gets to seriously pitch again.
The injury in combination with the poor 2026 performance probably means that Akin will not end up ever getting the opportunity to get a real free agent contract. That was rough luck for him. Even one year for a few million would have been better than he got for most of his arbitration seasons.
Some team will probably at least extend Akin a minor league contract with a spring training invitation when 2028 rolls around. Maybe it will even be the Orioles. If he really liked it here, he might take it. There’s not much risk in handing out spring training invitations to see whether a guy has something left in the tank, as long as you correctly assess what he’s got in the tank before potentially giving him a big league roster spot again.
By season’s end, the role that the Orioles went into the season thinking would be Akin’s had been taken over by a completely different age-31 lefty, Josh Walker. Camden Chat colleague Andrea wrote about Walker yesterday. Somebody stinks or gets hurt or both and the roster moves on. Akin ended up on the wrong end of that for 2026 and that may be the final memory that we have of him as an Oriole.
