The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (8-5-0) @ Vegas Golden Knights (9-4-1)
The Time: 6:00pm ET
The Broadcast: MSGSN, Scripps, NHL Network, Devils Hockey Radio Network
Note the unusual start time. Today is Nevada Day, and the Golden Knights are celebrating with a weekday afternoon game. It’s odd, but it certainly beats the usual 10pm start time for games in Vegas.
Last Devils Game
On Wednesday, the Devils traveled to Colorado and lost to the Avalanche, 5-2. Connor Brown scored both goals, his first markers of the season. Jake
Allen got the start and made 40 saves on 45 shots.
Last Golden Knights Game
Vegas’s last game was on Tuesday, when they defeated the Ottawa Senators, 4-1. The win snapped the Golden Knights’ three-game losing streak, with Adin Hill getting the win while making 25 saves on 26 shots.
The First Dud In A While
The 5-2 final score from Wednesday’s contest was, plain and simple, a very poor game by the Devils. Yes, the score was tied 1-1 after two periods, but through 40 minutes, the Avalanche were handily controlling play. The floodgates finally burst open in the third, with Colorado scoring four times in a row and coasting from there.
The Avalanche outshot the Devils 45-22. According to Natural Stat Trick, New Jersey posted a ghastly Expected Goals% of just under 30%. There were moments here and there that New Jersey could be proud of, but overall, this really was the first dud in a while after a prolonged stretch of good hockey. Only Jake Allen and Connor Brown had unambiguously good games. Yes, Allen’s save percentage doesn’t look great, but he was the only reason this game wasn’t 10-1 after two periods. Allen had himself a very strong night, regardless of what the numbers say.
But in the end, I get it. Think about all the factors going against the Devils on Wednesday:
- Second half of a back-to-back
- Travel required
- Playing a well-rested team
- That well-rested team just so happening to be an elite group in the Colorado Avalanche
- In the thin air of Colorado
Going through Kurt’s game recap from Wednesday and the comments on that post, I saw the phrase “schedule loss” thrown around a lot. I wholeheartedly agree with that sentiment. Wednesday was a night where New Jersey was set up to fail, and while it’s certainly possible to win or at least come away with a loser point under those circumstances, I can’t be too hard on the Devils for how poor they looked. Every team has off-nights, and considering how much was working against them, Wednesday’s loss is one I’m content to write off as a schedule loss and move on from.
…so long as the Devils bounce back strong.
That’s the one thing that worries me, that the loss to the Avalanche kick starts a string of bad games. Tonight is going to be a very tough contest as well, going up against a strong Vegas team. I would not be surprised if New Jersey lost again, but at the very least, I expect a much better outing than on Wednesday. If the Devils lose a hard-fought, back-and-forth, 3-2 or 4-3 game or something, I won’t be happy but I can accept that. But if they lose again while looking like they did against the Avalanche, that will be disappointing and a bit of a concern.
Finishing The Trip Strong
All that being said, if the Devils can find a way to win this game, and maybe even get back to their dominant puck possession selves in the process, that would be a great sign. This was always going to be a brutal road trip. Not only is it a western swing, but it just so happens to be against three of the very best teams in the NHL. You could argue that Dallas, Colorado, and Vegas are the top three squads in the west. Throw in a back-to-back, and I don’t think anyone’s expectations were particularly high coming into the trip.
But the Devils not only won their opening contest of the road trip, they looked great while doing so. I’m of the opinion that New Jersey was a little leakier defensively than most people think, as while they gave up very few shots, the individual quality of those shots were quite high. Still, they outshot the Stars by a million and won 5-1, so it’s hard to complain too much. They laid an understandable egg against Colorado, and now they have a chance to go home with a winning road trip.
Vegas is a great team, but they are not unbeatable, as their recent three-game skid indicates. The Devils can absolutely steal a win from the Knights this evening. As mentioned, I won’t be too broken up if they lose. But I think the vibes would be through the roof if New Jersey collects four out of six points on this trip. All of us would have signed for that before this three-game journey began.
Power Outage
Colorado game aside, the Devils have been a play-driving machine over the first month of the season at 5-on-5. But for all their territorial dominance at even strength, the power play remains a big concern.
New Jersey went 0-for-3 against Colorado on Wednesday, including failing to score on roughly half a minute of 5-on-3 time at the end of the second period. I’m not sure if that game turns out to be any different if they convert, but I have to believe the Devils’ chances of squeezing at least a point out of that game would’ve gone up dramatically. Remember, the game was still knotted at 1-1 when the Devils went on the power play, and then got that 5-on-3. The second penalty carried over into the third period, so imagine if New Jersey could play with a lead in the final 20 minutes. Again, it’s very possible they still would have lost, but the power play failures are what truly sealed their fate.
Entering play today, the Devils are rocking a power play conversion rate of 17.5%. That’s good for 22nd in the league, which is not truly awful, but it’s certainly not good either. For a team as talented as New Jersey, that figure is unacceptable.
Now, brace yourselves. I’m about to give you some stats that I think a lot of you will be shocked by. I know I was.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Devils’ underlying numbers on the power play are pretty terrific:
Shocked?
And it’s not just NST either. According to Hockey Stats, the Devils have an xG/60 rate of 8.6 on the power play, tied for seventh-best in the league with both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Ducks. Post Hockey is lower on the Devils, tabbing them at an xG/60 rate of 7.61, down at 13th in the league. The important thing to note about Post Hockey’s numbers is that, if I’m reading the stats correctly, they adjust for shooting talent. So it makes sense that their model would have New Jersey much lower than Natural Stat Trick and moderately lower than Hockey Stats. Still, 13th-best seems higher than I would have expected.
I’m sorry, but as much of a believer as I am in analytics, I cannot endorse these numbers. There is no way the Devils’ process is the 4th-best in the league. Heck, 8th is way too high for me as well, and 13th is better but still a tad rich. From what I’ve watched of the power play this year, there is a serious problem with the process. PP1 consists mainly of The Hughes brothers and Jesper Bratt playing catch on the perimeter, with Jack and Luke occasionally taking medium-danger shots that mostly get blocked or go wide. On the rare occasions those three include Nico Hischier and Luke Evangelista on the inside of the formation, it’s either broken up quickly or fumbled away. There’s not nearly enough movement, not nearly enough decisiveness, and not nearly enough shooting threats to actually make this power play run.
PP2, on the other hand, has much less talent but provides way better process. Players like Timo Meier and Arseny Gritsyuk operate with confidence and decisiveness, providing the shooting threats the man advantage needs. Dougie Hamilton quarterbacking the unit works, and players like Evan Rodrigues and Anthony Mantha complement the unit as well. There’s an intentionality on PP2 that is missing on PP1, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the vast majority of New Jersey’s glowing process numbers come from the second unit.
In any case, the top power play unit is pretty busted at the moment, and it’s on the coaching staff to figure it out. There is way too much talent here for this unit to be as bad as it is.
Round Two For Hellebuyck?
The Devils did not practice yesterday, so we didn’t get any indication on who would start in net this evening. We’ll have to wait for morning skate today to get that answer. But I’m going to assume it will be the newest Devil, Connor Hellebuyck. The future Hall of Famer was strong in his debut with the club on Tuesday, stopping 17 of 18 shots in the victory.
What impressed and surprised me the most was just how Hellebuyck always seemed to be one step ahead of the play. The Stars didn’t get that many looks at the net on Tuesday, but as I mentioned earlier, when they did get their looks there was a healthy amount of danger sprinkled in. Maybe I’ve just gotten so used to watching the likes of Vitek Vanecek and Mackenzie Blackwood and Akira Schmid and Jacob Markstrom and even Jake Allen over the past few years. But something that really struck me when watching Hellebuyck was how often he made me go “…Oh…that was it?”. When the Stars would fire a prime chance at Hellebuyck, instead of flailing around to get into position at the last minute like all the other Devil goalies, Hellebuyck seemed to already be waiting for the shot. He read each play so well, he managed his positioning so well, and he controlled his rebounds so well that even the premium shots looked relatively nonthreatening. One moment I’m clenching up at a one-timer from the inner slot, and the next moment I’m watching the shot harmlessly settle into Hellebuyck’s chest for a stoppage, as if it was always destined to be that way.
And I would go “…Oh…that was it?”.
Obviously I’ve watched Hellbuyck over the years, but I haven’t taken the time to really study him. It’s only one game, but after watching him play for the Devils for the first time, and taking into account every stat and scouting report I could get my hands on about why Hellebuyck is so great, I can certainly understand it. His hockey IQ is stellar. It’s the equivalent of someone like Luke Evangelista, who might not skate fast (below 50th percentile in all skating speed metrics per NHL Edge), but who plays fast thanks to how smart he is and how quickly he processes. But unlike Evangelista, Hellebuyck is also gifted physically with monstrous size. When a goalie is borderline telepathic like Hellebuyck, AND they have a massive frame, it is very, very difficult to get pucks behind him.
All of that to say, even though it’s only one game, it was a terrific one. And I am thrilled Hellebuyck is a Devil. Assuming his second outing with the club really does come tonight, I expect another strong outing from New Jersey’s franchise netminder.
The Golden Triangle
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Vegas Golden Knights are, once again, one of the best teams in the league. And it also shouldn’t surprise anyone to see who is leading the charge. Vegas is getting contributions up and down the lineup, but Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Mitch Marner are the spearheads of a potent Golden Knights attack.
Eichel leads the way with seven goals and 20 points in 14 games. Next is Stone, with eight goals (leading the team) and 16 points in 14 games. Marner is in third with two goals and 13 points in 12 games. The only other Knight in double figures in points is Ivan Barbashev, with an odd 1-9-10 statline. But considering Barbashev is logging 16:17 of ice time per game while the big three are up in the 18-20 minute range, Barbashev definitely falls under the “support” camp rather than the core.
On the backend, Vegas’ defense corps has been a bit disappointing from a point production standpoint. Their usual number one, Shea Theodore, has only registered a pair of goals and five points through 14 contests. Vegas’ second in command, Noah Hanifin, has that same exact statline as well. If the defensemen pick their game up, Vegas’ Golden Triangle could turn into a Golden Pentagram Pentagon. And if that happens, then the Pacific Division and the rest of the league will really be in trouble.
Under The Hood
Aside from the traditional production, Vegas’ underlying metrics are in good-not-great territory through the first month of play:
Unlike last year when Vegas had superb advanced metrics but didn’t have the results to show for it (in the regular season at least), Vegas has been outkicking their coverage a little bit, rocking the sixth-best points percentage in the league entering play today.
Taking a look at some of the individual line combinations over at Moneypuck, many of Vegas’ forward combinations look quite good from a process standpoint. But a secret weapon of sorts appears to be the Tomas Hertl-Trevor Connelly combination. Hertl and Connelly are both a part of the top two lines on the Golden Knights according to Moneypuck’s 5-on-5 xG% numbers. In about 24 minutes with Braeden Bowman, the trio is posting a pretty silly 91.7% xG mark. In just over 29 minutes with Victor Olofsson, they’re rocking an xG% of 71.4%. Those are tiny sample sizes, but at this early stage, a pattern is emerging.
Connelly and Hertl have each played 14 games so far. Connelly has four goals and nine points, while Hertl has five goals and eight points. Decent point production, but certainly not elite. However, the Devils need to hope that their results don’t catch up with their process until after New Jersey leaves town. Eichel, Stone, and Marner need to be page one of the gameplan tonight. But Hertl and Connelly have earned the right to appear on page two.
A Tale Of Two Special Teams Units
Another interesting battle tonight might be the special teams battle. We’ve already went over New Jersey’s power play struggles, but they might get a chance to right the ship against Vegas this evening. The Knights come in with a penalty kill success rate of 67.6%, all the way down at 26th in the league. If ever there was a time to snap out of it, tonight might be the Devils’ opportunity.
On the other side, New Jersey better be careful not to take too many penalties. For as bad as the Golden Knights’ PK has been, their PP is making up a lot of the slack. Vegas enters with a power play conversion rate of 25.6%, good for eighth-best in the NHL. Against New Jersey’s 24th-ranked PK (72.4%), Vegas could wreak havoc.
One of the keys to this game for New Jersey absolutely has to be staying disciplined. Two points could be decided over it.
Projected Lineup
Here’s how the Golden Knights lined up in their most recent game:
And because Vegas is absolutely committed to their emoji lineup bit, here is the Rosetta Stone to understanding the above tweet:
Expect much the same tonight.
Your Take
What are you anticipating out of tonight’s game? Do you think the Devils will bounce back after their dud in Colorado? Who on the team do you think will have a big game? Who on the Golden Knights will you be keeping an eye on the most? As always, thanks for reading!
