NFL predictions: 4 keys to a Lions victory over the Cardinals in Week 5

Sep 22, 2024; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) passes in the first half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con The Detroit Lions (2-2) and Arizona Cardinals (1-3) will squa

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What is the story about?

The Detroit Lions (2-2) and Arizona Cardinals (1-3) will square off in Week 4, with both teams looking to get back on the winning track.

“New week, new opponent, Arizona,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said earlier this week. “These guys are playing hard. (Cardinals Head) Coach (Mike) LaFleur’s doing a really good job with them, man. They’ve been in all these games. […] So look, we’re going to get this team’s best. They’re going to be ready to go. They’re looking for a win, and so are we.”

Let’s take a closer

look at this matchup and predict how the Lions will earn a victory over the Cardinals in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

This week’s predictions preview is sponsored by the folks at FanDuel Sportsbook, who currently have the Lions listed at +2700 to win this year’s Super Bowl and 5.5-point favorites in Week 4.

Cardinals base schemes

For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 5 preview: Breaking down the Cardinals’ offensive and defensive schemes.

Prediction 1: Jameson Williams catalyst to offensive success

When wide receivers coach Scottie Montgomery discussed Jameson Williams’ performance through the first four games of the season, he was openly honest about the receiver’s missed opportunities. Many will view his comments as overly harsh or too critical, but this coaching staff doesn’t pull their punches and players often respond positively to that.

“Every target he had in that game should have been a catch,” Montgomery said. “If it hits you in the foot, fingertips, you jump up, and it hits you, you gotta catch it. He understands that part of it. But that is exactly what I’m talking about: You can’t be boom or bust in this league.”

Williams, who has been credited with five drops through four games, acknowledged Montgomery’s criticism and agreed that he can be better with his consistency, telling Will Burchfield of 97.1 The Ticket that “if I would grade it myself, it’s probably one of my worst starts to my career.”

While Williams failed to catch at least 50 receiving yards in each of the first three games, he hauled in six of his eight targets for 102 yards against the Panthers’ zone-shell defense last week. A bounce-back performance that offensive coordinator Drew Petzing believes could lead to more production.

“The first thing I’m going to evaluate is effort, assignment, energy, and intensity. And I think he’s doing a really nice job,” Petzing said of Williams. “He’s bounced back and made some really big plays for us. […] I’m pleased with where he is at, and I’m always going to say, ‘Hey, can you give us more? Can you make more plays? Can you have a bigger role?’ And I think he wants that.”

In the past, a zone-shell defense like the Cardinals run would have presented problems for Williams’ vertical style of play, but as he showed last week in Carolina, Williams can do more than stretch the defense.

The Cardinals’ Vic Fangio-style secondary (two-high split-safety shells with heavy Cover-3, -4 and -6 looks) can be difficult to throw against. But it’s also a difficult system to run, and if the players don’t execute their assignments correctly, it can get exposed and break down.

Williams is exactly the type of player who exposes those flaws in this zone.

Look for the Lions to lean on Williams early in this game, giving him an opportunity to stretch the safeties in the zone, make contested plays downfield, and respond to his critics. If he can come through—which players often do when challenged in this manner—he will force the Cardinals’ safeties to expand their coverage zones and open things up underneath for players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Prediction 2: Jared Goff picks apart the Cardinals’ zone defense

Last week against the Panthers, Jared Goff threw for 412 yards and a score, including a 49-yard catch to Williams and a 57-yarder to Isaac TeSlaa. The Cardinals’ zones are even looser.

Against the pass this season, the Cardinals are having a worse statistical season than the Lions’ secondary—and we all know how Detroit fans feel about their performance. Here’s a glance at some statistics to support this statement:

Pass defense DVOA: 31st
Pass yards allowed per play: 9.1 (32nd)
EPA per pass play: 0.29 (30th)
Explosive pass allowed: 32nd
Pressures forced: 37 (32nd) — for reference, the Lions have 75 (2nd)

With the Cardinals’ run defense looking solid (run defense DVOA: 10th), look for the Lions to keep the ball in Goff’s hands, moving away from an even run/pass split, and letting one of the NFL’s top passers (third in passing yards, fifth in passer rating, third in EPA vs. zone, second in PFF passing grade) go to work.

Prediction 3: Lions DBs step up to stop the run early

Despite having two talented running backs on the roster—third overall pick Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier—the Cardinals’ rushing output has been average:

Rushing DVOA: 13th
Rush yards per game: 100.5 (21st)
Rush yards per play: 3.9 (21st)
EPA per rush: -0.05 (14th)

Some of that lack of rushing production is because the Cardinals have trailed in most games and needed to rely on the passing attack, but the true catalyst has been their inability to produce explosive plays on offense. With the Cardinals not pushing the ball downfield, defenses have brought defenders closer to the line of scrimmage, resulting in the fewest explosive plays in the NFL and 29th in runs that gain 10+ yards, with just six on the season.

While the Cardinals’ rushing attack isn’t scary on paper, their game film raises some concerns. Arizona is at their best when deploying their outside-zone rushing attack, and because they have the talent to get to the edge, the Lions will need their defensive backs and linebackers to be heavily involved in stopping those stretch plays—an area they’ve struggled with lately.

For the Lions to take away the Cardinals’ rushing attack, they’ll need their entire defense—especially the defensive backs on the edge—focused on stopping the run early in this game, and if the Lions’ offense can also put up points, they’ll force Arizona into a situation where they’ll need to throw to keep up.

Prediction 4: Lions pass rush wins the game

The Lions’ biggest advanatge in this game is arguably Detroit’s pass rush vs.Arizona’s pass protection. If the Lions’ struggling defense can hang their hats on one part of their defense to build around, it should be their pass rush. Through four games, they’re near the top of the NFL in pass rushing production:

Pressures forced: 75 (2nd)
Pressure rate: 39.3% (8th)
Quick pressure rate: 39.3% (1st)
Non-blitz pressure rate: 27% (1st)
Time to pressure: 2.6 seconds (12th)
Sacks: 15 (1st)
Sack rate: 7.9% (6th)

“We have to feed off of them. And I told those guys, ‘I’m going to lean on y’all.’ Because of the evidence that’s been proven,” Lions defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard said. “These guys are playing at an elite level. […] When you have guys playing like that up front, we should be benefiting, feasting off of things like that.”

While the Cardinals offensive line has done a decent job of keeping Jacoby Brissett upright (allowing 53 pressures, 16th in the NFL, and just seven sacks, 10th best), they’ll have to overcome potentially losing two starters this week. Left tackle Paris Johnson (arguably their best OL) was placed on injured reserve after tearing his biceps last game, while right guard Isaiah Adams hasn’t practiced all week after injuring his ankle and is in danger of missing this game.

While Brissett has avoided sacks, he hasn’t performed well under pressure. Through four games this season, according to SumerSports, Brissett’s EPA when pressured ranks 29th in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks, and 40th when teams blitz him.

Look for the Lions to try to shorten the field with their secondary design, work to limit the rushing attack on the edges, and let their pass rushers win this game for them.