Despite the strong spring enjoyed by Jose Fernandez, it’s safe to say that nobody saw last night coming. Fernandez barely made it onto MLB Pipeline’s list of Arizona prospects, coming in at #27. His promotion to the big league roster, came after just a single game at Triple-A. And it was as much because Jose was the only healthy position player available on the 40-man roster. None of which matters, after a debut for the ages. Whatever happens going forward – and it’s perhaps a little premature to start
booking Fernandez a spot in Cooperstown – he’ll always have that magical night at Chase. Let’s see where it ranks in baseball history.
Two home-runs
That’s the most obvious of feats. Baseball Reference lists just seven players in recorded baseball history to have gone deep twice in their MLB debut. Weirdly, one of those was a mere five days ago, the Guardians’ Chase DeLauter (though as Preston mentioned, he technically debuted in the post-season last year). The last NL debutant to do so was Trevor Story of the Rockies ten years ago. You might remember that game, because it came against the Diamondbacks, on Opening Day 2016. No NL rookie has achieved the feat anywhere else except for Chase Field. [Sarah Langs notes that Charlie Reilly was an 8th player, in 1889. But that was in the American Association, so demands an asterisk]
Among Arizona players, Jose is obviously the first to hit two homers in his first career game. Though he isn’t the first to do so in his first game for the D-backs. Most notably, Felipe Lopez did so on Opening Day 2006 – he did so from both sides of the plate that day (Tony Clark also had a LHB and RHB blast in same game). Nor is Jose the youngest Diamondback with a two-homer contest. Unsurprisingly, that honor belongs to Justin Upton. He had a pair of such games in May 2009, at the age of 21, a year younger than Fernandez. Teammate Alek Thomas also performed the feat in 2022, when he was about five months younger.
In terms of games, the previous quickest to have a double long-ball game for Arizona belonged to Conor Jackson. He did it in August 2005, during the sixth game of his career. Other Diamondbacks to do it in ten games or fewer were Mark Reynolds and Wyatt Mathisen. The last-named is probably why we shouldn’t get TOO excited yet about Fernandez. Mathisen’s entire MLB career lasted only 32 games, with only a single home-run hit outside that magical night in September 2020 – where he played third base, like Jose.
Win Probability
It wasn’t just the home-runs, it was when Fernandez hit them. In particular, the second, which turned a 5-4 deficit into a 7-5 lead. And with the D-backs down to their final four outs as well. All that adds up to a monstrous +64.1% of Win Probability added by Fernandez. For a first game, that smashes the previous high for Arizona by more than thirty percent. The previous best belonged to Stone Garrett – another “Who’s he?” in franchise history. He had a pair of key doubles in a 3-2 win at San Francisco, worth 34.8%. According to Baseball Reference, four players have posted a higher Win Probability in their debut, most recently Zach Remillard’s 69.7% for the White Sox in 2023. Guess who had a blown save in that game for Seattle, courtesy of Remillard? Paul Sewald…
To find the all-time high for an impactful debut, we must go back to 1939, and the Pirates’ Maurice Van Robays. His first game was worth a remarkable +102.2%, mostly due to a walk-off two-run double in the eleventh inning. His lasting contribution to baseball, however, is probably coming up with the name of the “eephus pitch“. But back to Fernandez. His +65.1% would have ranked sixth by any Diamondbacks’ hitter across all 162 games last season. Only one Arizona player has hit for a higher Win Probability during his first fifty career games. In his 42nd appearance, Jeff Salazar came off the bench with two outs in the ninth, for a three-run shot worth +74.0%.
Nine total bases
In addition to his two home-runs, Fernandez got things started with a single in his first major-league at bat. Curiously, of the seven two-homer debutants, Story is the only one who did not record another hit that night: I guess, when you’re hot, you’re hot! But it means that Jose’s nine total bases is tied for third as debuts go. The two who had more were Mark Quinn in 1999, who doubled in addition to his two homers, and J.P. Arencibia, who doubled and singled, so ended the night a triple away from the cycle in his first game. That would have been quite the feat in itself, of course. From what I can see, Elly de la Cruz holds the record there, hitting for the cycle in his fifteenth game.
