Rutgers basketball has picked up two wins against Big Ten opponents and has a record of 2-2 since Big Ten play resumed. Both victories exhibited a few similar trends that may reveal the key for Rutgers to secure
a few more wins during the rest of the season.
There are a few obvious similarities that need to be addressed. First of all, Tariq Francis had a 30-point game in both of those games. It is really hard to beat any team that has one player reach this mark. The second one is free throws. Again, it is really tough to beat any team in college basketball when you allow them to attempt 27 shots or more at the free-throw line. According to a study done by the NCAA in 2018, teams that shoot above 20.6 free throws per game win on average 54.6 percent of their games. That number only goes up from there.
However, there were a few other statistics that are worth noting. For example, turnovers. The Scarlet Knights committed 7 turnovers against Oregon and 6 against Northwestern. Even in their game against Ohio State, where Rutgers did better than expected, they only committed 8 turnovers. However, in losses such as their Players Era Tournament loss to Notre Dame, their embarrassing loss to Central Connecticut State at home, and their crushing loss to in-state rival Seton Hall, they had 10 turnovers or more. If Rutgers can keep its turnovers under 9 in each game, their chances of winning go up dramatically.
Another similiar statline in each game was their three-point shooting. Against Oregon, Rutgers hit 33 percent of its three-pointers. They shot 32 percent against Northwestern. The Knights do not shoot that many threes compared to other teams. They don’t have much in terms of quality three-point shooters. However, if they can hit them with at least some level of regularity in a single game, that gives them their best chance to win. Rutgers does not have a truly consistent three-point game yet, but if it can find some consistency from three against lower-tier Big Ten opponents, that might lead to it pulling off some wins.
In addition to finding consistency in their three-point game, since Rutgers does not shoot that many three-pointers in general, they have to perform extremely well in the two-point shots they attempt. In their wins against Oregon and Northwestern, and their near miss against Ohio State, they hit 40 percent or more on their total field goals. However, in their blowout losses against Illinois, Seton Hall, and Michigan, they shot less than 37 percent on their total field goals. To do this, Rutgers must find consistency in hitting much tougher shots than most other teams. This isn’t exactly a formula for generating a lot of wins; however, with Rutgers current team structure, this is what they have to do to pull off Big Ten victories.
Consistency in these areas isn’t going to turn the Knights into a star team that can take down anybody on any given day. However, it could make it so that Rutgers is consistently competitive against teams in the lower quarter of the Big Ten. After setting expectations very low to start the year, any sort of formula for any sort of success is a welcome one.
