Life comes at you fast in college football and fortunes can change in an instant. Just over two weeks ago, the Penn State Nittany Lions were considered national title contenders. Drew Allar came into the year as a Heisman hopeful and James Franklin had a buyout so big he seemed untouchable, not that anyone would have reason to fire a coach of a top-5 team poised to make a run at the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff.
But after pushing their matchup vs then-#6 Oregon to OT and even
jumping out to a lead, the Lions came up short at home in double OT. They followed that up with a classic east-to-west hangover loss to UCLA, who found new life after firing DeShaun Foster. It was perhaps the worst loss we’ve seen in college football in a generation, being the first time in 40 years a top-10 team lost to a team 0-4 or worse.
Even so, at 3-2 the Lions were capable of righting the ship and salvaging the season. They returned home to take on Northwestern in a get right game before looking ahead to a home stretch that included a trip to Iowa City and top-10 showdowns with Ohio State and Indiana that could vault them right back into the national title conversation.
Instead, PSU stumbled against Northwestern and in the process, lost starting QB Drew Allar for the season. National title hopes dashed. Any remaining dreams of a Heisman resurgence against OSU and IU gone. And less than 24 hours later, James Franklin out as well.
So now, the Hawkeyes fresh off an historic 37-0 drubbing of Wisconsin, have seen their season narrative take another twist. Two weeks ago, this home matchup against a top-5 team seemed like an insurmountable obstacle in a newfound quest to top seven wins on the season. Losses to ISU and Indiana with an injury to Mark Gronowski seemed to spell doom and gloom with PSU and Oregon on the docket at home with trips to USC and Nebraska looming large.
But that top-5 Penn State team is now 3-3 with a backup QB, an interim head coach and a program in turmoil. With that turmoil, Iowa opened as 1.5-point favorites at home vs the Lions according to FanDuel Sportsbook Sunday morning. That was before James Franklin was paid nearly $50M to not coach anymore.
After Franklin’s firing, the line has moved up to Iowa -3.5 with the over/under hanging around 38.5 total points. What was poised to be an opportunity for Kinnick to relive the glory days and draw blood against a top-10 opponent on under the lights is now just another night game in a long string this season where Iowa is expected to win.
If they do, the narrative on this season will once again shift. Pre-season expectations from the fanbase of 9-3 may become a realistic possibility again with home dates against Minnesota and MSU as well as the big showdown against #8 Oregon. Of course, at the rate things are shifting in the Big Ten, who’s to say the Ducks will be ranked at all in two weeks and Dan Lanning won’t laying around on his own pile of cash?
Here’s a quick look at the early details for Saturday’s matchup with Penn State.
Date: Saturday, October 18th
Time: 6:05 pm CT
Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions (3-3, 0-3) at Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2, 2-1)
Location: Kinnick Stadium – Iowa City, Iowa
TV: Peacock
Initial Weather Forecast: Partly cloudy with temps in the mid-50s, 40% chance of rain early before clearing
FanDuel Opening Line: Iowa – 3.5, O/U 38.5
As a reminder to fans heading to Kinnick on Saturday, this is the annual spirit game where fans stripe the stadium. Pack your rain jackets and ponchos accordingly should this early forecast hold.
