It is finally appropriate to use this video as we have reached Minnesota week!
The opening number is out for Purdue’s matchup with Minnesota, and FanDuel has the Boilermakers catching 2.5 points at home. Minnesota is currently listed at -2.5, with Purdue at +2.5, while the moneyline sits at Minnesota -134 and Purdue +114. The Golden Gophers enter the game 4-1, while Purdue is 2-3 following last week’s impressive 24-17 road victory over Illinois.
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The over/under is set at 50.5 points, and this is one of those totals that immediately catches my attention. Purdue has been involved in some serious shootouts this season, scoring at least 36 points in three of its first five games. The Boilermakers have already played games that finished with 82 points against Wake Forest and 90 points against UCLA. While Minnesota has played a much more defensive style, the Gophers have also scored 27 or more points in three of their last four games, including 27 against Washington and 41 against Akron.
I actually like the Over 50.5 in this matchup. The biggest reason is that Purdue’s offense finally showed some consistency against Illinois, putting up 24 points against one of the better defenses in the conference. Ryan Browne also played an efficient game through the air, throwing for 255 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions.
Minnesota, meanwhile, just scored 20 points against Michigan but had previously put up 27 against Washington and 41 against Akron. If Purdue can get into the high 20s and Minnesota can reach the mid-20s, we’re already looking at 50-plus points. A score somewhere in the neighborhood of 31-27 would be enough to cash the over.
The other thing worth watching is the movement on the spread.
Some markets opened Minnesota as high as 6.5-point favorites, but the number has moved all the way down to -2.5, with Purdue now getting significantly more respect from the betting market. That’s notable coming off the Boilermakers’ road win at Illinois.
Purdue also gets the benefit of playing this one at Ross-Ade Stadium, where kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET Saturday night.
For now, the numbers to watch are Minnesota -2.5, Purdue +2.5 and Over/Under 50.5. If I were looking at the board right now, Purdue +2.5 and Over 50.5 would be the two numbers that interest me most.
