There are folks out there that love a good defensive slugfest. I am not one of them.
But even if I was, I’m not sure the 2025 Gator Bowl would qualify as such.
There was certainly one side that did its part: Missouri’s defense stymied Virginia all night. I know the Mizzou online collective were gnashing their teeth at the 19-play drive but I think that was a testament to how they weren’t giving Virginia anything and forcing their squad of 5th-and 6th-year guys to make plays in the clutch. Which they did.
But only scored 13 points. Why? Because Corey Batoon showed the hell up and forced them to be elite in order to scratch out a touchdown and two field goals.
But Mizzou? Nah. That wasn’t the product of some elite defensive performance. It was just a good ol’ offensive malpractice.
Without an offensive coordinator, the top two quarterbacks, two of their three most targeted receivers, their tight end, their starting center after the second drive, and their best receiver battling some illness, Drinkwitz cracked open the ‘21/‘22 vintage offense, where he ran three plays and couldn’t generate a competent passing attack.
But what else was he going to do? He didn’t have a quarterback who could read an SEC defense well enough to throw over the middle of the field (and the one time he did was an interception). He couldn’t just run Ahmad Hardy because – outside of the fluky 42-yard gain – Hardy was bottled up to the tune of 2.2 yards per carry. So the Tigers just flopped their way against a Top 25 defense – half of whom were 6th-year players – and hoped the defense could somehow win it for them.
And they didn’t.
Here’s the advanced box score:
As Mizzou fans we tend to focus on what Missouri was bad at and then blame the staff for them being bad. But, man, Virginia really stunk out the joint, too. Again, that 19-play drive was frustrating but not bad; all Eli Drinkwitz wants to do is run the clock down as fast as possible and then put in enough effort to win the game late, and having Virginia’s offense drain all that clock to end up keeping the score within one possession was fine by his game plan. And, remember, as terrible as it looked (because it was), Mizzou was still one elite play by a Virginia defensive back away from winning in the most improbable way possible.
UVA had near season lows across the board on all offensive aspects. 38 passes attempts for not even 200 yards is terrible. Not eclipsing 130 yards rushing on 39 carries is embarrassing. Missouri’s defense did its part to elite levels. Virginia’s defense showed up and did what was needed to make a limited offense look so inept it made Missouri fans question why they were watching this game in the first place.
When Missouri Has the Ball
Here were the per-play averages of Missouri’s offensive players before the 4th quarter:
- Zollers: 3.3 (per pass), 2.3 (per run)
- Hardy: 5.8 (counting the 42-yarder), 2.2 (not counting the 42-yarder)
- Roberts: 5.9
- Average yards to go on 3rd-down: 7.1
None of those are great options but running Matt Zollers was the worse option (but similar to running Hardy). If that was the calculus Drinkwitz was utilizing to determine what he would call, I’ll meet him way more than halfway and greet him with a “Fine?”. Thankfully, he bucked that math for the 4th quarter and finally let Hardy loose for four rushes that went for 25 yards (6.3 per play). Unfortunately, that was it, and then he benched him for the rest of the game.
Run the ball
Goal: At least a 41% rushing success rate.
Actual: 28.1% rushing success rate
Winner: Virginia
Protect The Ball
Goal: At least a neutral turnover margin.
Actual: 1 turnover each if you count the muffed punt (which I am)
Winner: Missouri
Finish Your Dang Drives
Goal: 6 scoring opportunities and finish with 4.7 points per scoring opportunity (28 points).
Actual: 5 scoring opportunities, 1.4 points per scoring opportunity (7 points).
Winner: Virginia
When Virginia Has the Ball
Missouri had its lowest havoc rate of the Drinkwitz era and still managed to force Virginia to turn into Superman to eke out 13 points.
Here’s a fun breakdown of Virginia’s offensive success rate by down:
- 1st-Down: 31.3% success rate
- 2nd-Down: 20.8% success rate
- 3rd-Down: 54.2% success rate
- 4th-Down: 66.7% success rate
Meanwhile, here’s Mizzou:
- 1st-Down: 34.8% success rate
- 2nd-Down: 29.4% success rate
- 3rd-Down: 25.0% success rate
- 4th-Down: 0.0% success rate
And that’s the difference between a 6th-year quarterback and a freshman quarterback playing in his 6th game.
Bottle Up The Run
Goal: No more than a 42% rushing success rate.
Actual: 30.8% rushing success rate
Winner: Missouri
HAVOC
Goal: At least a 20% havoc rate.
Actual: 5% havoc rate
Winner: Virginia
The Little Things
Mizzou wound up being slightly better in yards per play than Virginia but obviously suffered in the “points per scoring opportunity” category. Also…look at that average starting field position advantage for UVA. Yikes.
On the demerit front…remember when Darris Smith was trying to choke out that offensive lineman? That was weird. Otherwise the numbskullery was at a minimum for both sides. The Trost false start on 4th-down stunk but I’m sure Mizzou wouldn’t have been able to do much if they had converted.
Extra Points
I was really hoping Luper or Peeler would get a crack at calling plays. Because why not? What was there to lose? Instead we got a reminder of how bad Drinkwitz is as an offensive coordinator when he’s also responsible for the entire team. Bottom tier stuff here, Drink, let’s not do it again.
You saw the success rates per down above, here are the raw yardage numbers. Again, Chandler Morris had to slap on an S-emblazoned cape on 3rd-down for Virginia to do anything and it’s impressive that he was able to do so consistently.
Missouri, meanwhile, was completely helpless outside of 1st down.
Virginia percentage of total yards by quarter:
- 1st: 24.4%
- 2nd: 30.6%
- 3rd: 27.8%
- 4th: 17.2%
Missouri percentage of total yards by quarter:
- 1st: 43.6%
- 2nd: 14.3%
- 3rd: 5.0%
- 4th: 37.1%
And here’s your last updated chart of which players generated 1st downs. It was another terrible 1st-down creation game and Mizzou lost, in part, because they only created 12 1st-downs. Ahmad Hardy was the king, with Jamal Roberts a MUCH distant 2nd, and Pribula throwing to Coleman in 3rd.
Conclusion
8-5 is a good year, don’t ever turn your nose up at such a record. I’m certainly not going to.
But man…I did not enjoy it.
I liked Ahmad Hardy. I enjoyed how elite Mizzou’s defense was and continues to be. But there were like…two games that I actually enjoyed. The obvious one being kansas, the other being the insanity known as “Auburn-Missouri”.
I’m glad the season is done. I would feel a lot better if this actual bridge year managed to keep some of the contributing pieces to build towards a potential breakthrough next year but, alas, that won’t be the case.
Eli Drinkwitz is at a bit of a crossroads right now. Even with the extension and the back-to-back ten win seasons followed by a “down year” of 8-wins, the manner in which the team lost and – specifically – struggled with offense, has seemingly soured the positive taste that Mizzou fans have of their football team over the past three years.
It doesn’t have to be this way. Maybe the new OC hire that I do not like works out. Maybe some portal receivers break through. Maybe he finally finds a quarterback.
But until Drink can do that, the Mizzou Football Experience (TM) is a little stinky right now, and the offense needs to pick it up, especially with 9-game SEC schedules coming down.
This season could have been much more than 8 wins but some rare portal misses and a struggling passing game held it back. Such is life.
Thank you all for joining me on yet another football season, my seventh covering the football Tigers in this capacity. And thank you to the 27ish of you that read this weekly breakdown of the games. It’s not everyone’s thing and a little too prog-rock at times but that’s what I’m here for.
Thanks, 2025, for at least beating kansas at football and making it nine straight seasons of bowl eligibility. Here’s looking to all the positivity in the world for 2026.
