Magomed Ankalaev is the undisputed champion at light heavyweight, but that doesn’t mean he’s surpassed Alex Pereira in the eyes of the fans.
That’s kind of a silly statement to make, given Ankalaev won
a convincing decision over Pereira six months ago to take his UFC belt. Ahead of their rematch in Saturday’s UFC 320 main event, much of the intrigue surrounds the challenger, not the champion. Pereira has been one of the combat sports world’s most magnetic figures for the past few years, owing to his sensational speed run through the 185- and 205-pound divisions, and his ability to knock out anyone who dares to step into the cage with him.
Even if Ankalaev is victorious again, it’s fair to say the prevailing question coming out of UFC 320 will be what’s next for “Poatan” rather than who is the next contender at light heavyweight. With that thought in mind, MMA Fighting’s Alexander K. Lee, Damon Martin, and Jed Meshew got together to predict Pereira’s future and other pertinent questions from the first of two UFC pay-per-views in October.
1. Win or lose, where does Alex Pereira go from here?
Martin: There are a multitude of reasons I don’t like automatic rematches like this, but the biggest comes down to Alex Pereira being stuck in purgatory at light heavyweight if he loses.
So, regardless of the result, Pereira should start looking at a few potential superfights to close out his career. If he’s victorious, Pereira doesn’t have many challenges left for him at 205 pounds outside of a third fight against Ankalaev, and it’s tough to imagine that’s going to be a big draw. He’s already finished Jiri Prochazka twice and did the same to Khalil Rountree Jr., so that matchup at UFC 320 holds far less significance if Pereira is champion again.
So the best option for Pereira, no matter the result, is looking for those marquee fights that can sell. With a win, maybe Pereira reignites the interest in a showdown against Jon Jones at the UFC White House card. As much as Jones fighting Tom Aspinall makes the most sense, he’s no longer the heavyweight champion, so the biggest obstacle to a showdown against Pereira is gone. If he loses, maybe Pereira runs it back with Israel Adesanya one last time because why not?
Pereira has already accomplished so much in such a short period of time that what we have to imagine as the final few fights of his career should be fun and totally for him. Whatever that looks like, let “Poatan” pick his poison — the magnitude of those matchups is likely dependent on whether or not he’s riding high off a win or licking his chops off another loss.
Lee: This is going to sound a little silly, but… why not one last ride at middleweight?
It wasn’t thaaaaat long ago (OK, last September) that Pereira hinted he’d be willing to drop back down to 185 pounds for a fight with then-champion Dricus du Plessis. Much has changed since then, with Pereira having lost his light heavyweight title, and Jon Jones’s retirement seemingly clearing the path for Pereira to potentially fight Tom Aspinall down the road.
That said, if he’s willing to cut the weight one more time, I have to imagine he could be sold on fighting current middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev. You think Pereira wouldn’t love the idea of being the man to finally hand Chimaev his first loss? And he could do it, too. Sure, Chimaev could do to Pereira what he did to du Plessis, and nobody wants to see that, but Chimaev is also prone to eating punches, and if he takes a few of those from Pereira, it’s an entirely different conversation.
This scenario works best if Pereira goes 0-2 against Ankalaev, but if he does become champion again, maybe it’s Chimaev who can be convinced to change divisions.
Meshew: Make like the Jeffersons and move it on up.
I was among the most vocal opponents to this rematch being booked in the first place, not because I hate immediate rematches — I do — but because this is just so pointless. When Pereira lost the MMA rematch with Israel Adesanya, he did the sensible thing and just bailed on the weight class. Could he have had a third fight with Izzy and won? Sure! Was it necessary? Not in the least.
Instead, “Poatan” jumped up to 205 and immediately made the division fun again. Well, if ever there was a division in desperate need of a fun injection (funjection?) it’s heavyweight. Pereira should’ve just shrugged off the loss to Ankalaev and moved up to heavyweight. Not a single person would have been upset by that. Most would’ve welcomed it.
Fortunately, it’s not too late. If Pereira beats Ankalaev and reclaims the title, he “did the thing” and made up for his poor performance in the first fight. Good job, but now there is no one left to fight — all due respect to Carlos Ulberg. Time for heavyweight. And if he loses to Ankalaev, it’s the exact same thing. Pereira simply has nothing left to do at 205. It’s time for new adventures.
2. How does Cory Sandhagen beat Merab Dvalishvili?
Meshew: He sneaks a taser into the cage.
I’m making light of it, but Merab Dvalishvili is a huge problem, not just for Cory Sandhagen, but for everyone. The old adage is that “fatigue makes cowards of us all,” and no one in the history of MMA has been better at inflicting fatigue on his opponents.
The simplest answer is Sandhagen needs to do everything in his power to keep this fight standing and off the fence. That’s obviously easier said than done, but he did have a good bit of success with his defensive wrestling against Umar Nurmagomedov. And if we’re being honest, it was Umar’s striking that posed an issue in that fight, with the threat of the takedowns. Merab does not present the same danger on the feet.
If I’m in Cory’s corner, the plan is constant motion, don’t be a stationary target for Merab’s shots, and tag him to the belly every chance you get. Basically, don’t punch him in the head, but work over the midsection in the hope Merab slows down from having Energizer Bunny levels of cardio to simply Michael Bisping levels of cardio.
Martin: With a perfectly executed game plan and zero mistakes.
The chances of this happening are rather unlikely, which is why Dvalishvili is an overwhelming favorite to retain his title and leave UFC 320 as champion. But Sandhagen has weapons that could give Dvalishvili problems, especially if this fight stays standing. At distance, Sandhagen is a sniper with a great variety of weapons, and that often includes some tricky moves like a jumping knee or a spinning wheel kick.
But really, it’s not the flashy stuff that can win him the fight, although that’s certainly possible. Realistically, Sandhagen needs to stick to the fundamentals and force Dvalishvili to get desperate. If Sandhagen can stuff a couple of takedowns, circle off the cage, and then maybe hurt the champion with a series of body shots, he might force Dvalishvili to get a little desperate.
Sandhagen has to show patience, but he also has to take advantage of those rare moments when he puts Dvalishvili on his back foot or actually stuns him with a strike. In other words, go for the kill during any opening you might get. The last thing Sandhagen wants is to let Dvalishvili start building momentum because then he’s going to be standing in the middle of the highway with a Georgian tractor-trailer bearing down on him, and in that case, he might just end up as street pizza.
Lee: With a legendary amount of partially earned confidence.
Sandhagen literally has nothing to lose. Yes, he’s earned this opportunity due to his consistency and his exciting fighting style, but it’s also true that Dvalishvili has a shortage of fresh title challengers at the moment. Sandhagen has been the guy you have to beat to get to the guy, and now the gatekeeper receives his own chance to dethrone Dvalishvili. And he really, really, really believes he can do it.
This isn’t just wishful thinking. We’ve seen Sandhagen defeat high-level competition. He just jacked up Deiveson Figueiredo’s knee, he busted up Song Yadong’s face, and he sent veterans Frankie Edgar and Marlon Moraes to the shadow realm without a moment’s hesitation. Simply put, he brings a level of sheer brutality to the cage that Dvalishvili hasn’t dealt with in some time.
I’m not straight-up picking Sandhagen (for the reasons outlined by my colleagues above), but his championship opportunity has been a long time coming, and I’m confident he’ll give Dvalishvili a scare or two in the fight even if it eventually goes The Machine’s way.
3. Who is the No. 1 contender at light heavyweight after Saturday night?
Lee: Somehow, some way, it’s going to end up being Carlos Ulberg.
Ulberg headed into UFC Perth with the promotion’s longest active winning streak at 205 pounds and he extended that number to nine with a quick main event knockout of Dominick Reyes. Despite that, Ulberg lags way behind Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree as far as name value goes, but if the matchmakers are looking for fresh blood in the division, then Ulberg is it.
I’m also banking on Prochazka and Rountree possibly bludgeoning each other into a lengthy medical suspension, thus making Ulberg the last man standing to face either Ankalaev or Rountree. And if that’s not a ringing endorsement for Ulberg, and the state of the light heavyweight division right now, I don’t know what is.
Meshew: Prochazka.
My large adult son is basically the Justin Gaethje of light heavyweight. The style that made him beloved and got him to the top of the sport was completely insane, and eventually cost him. Being a chaos merchant means that eventually the chaos comes back to bite you, and Jiri just happened to run into the Lord of Boops (Poatan) who is a nightmare for him.
Because Jiri is a crazy person, he blamed the first loss on dark magic, but after the second loss, “BJP” figured out he can’t be a total psycho at all points in time; he started to adjust. Now we’re in the second stage of Jiri’s career, where he’s still chaotic, but more controlled. He’s going to dust up Khalil Rountree on Saturday and then, regardless of what happens in the main event, he’s next. Because if Ankalaev wins, well, duh, and if Pereira wins, see Response 1.
Two-time light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka incoming.
Martin: Khalil Rountree Jr., because why not?
A one-time title contender who nobody believed deserved a title shot actually held his own against Alex Pereira for several rounds before eventually being finished. His encore to that fight was just beating up former UFC light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill in a one-sided ass kicking. Rountree is a powerful but still technical striker with dynamite in both hands, and that could spell doom for somebody like Prochazka, who plays defense about as well as my Cincinnati Bengals.
If Rountree can take advantage of an opening — and let’s be honest, Prochazka is going to give him one at some point — he just has to make the most of it, score a finish and then put himself in a position to fight for the championship in 2026.
