The Detroit Lions are coming off back-to-back intense NFC North rivalry games and now head south to take on the struggling Miami Dolphins. Detroit enters the game on a three-game winning streak and looks to keep it alive before heading to Germany.
Last week, my predictions went one-for-three, with the Lions’ defense holding up their end of the bargain, but the offense wasn’t as explosive. Quarterback Jared Goff couldn’t throw as much as I wanted, and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown was limited as running
back Jahmyr Gibbs took over the game in the second half.
With us back at even, it’s time to get back on the winning side on Sunday. The odds are with FanDuel Sportsbook.
1. Jahmyr Gibbs 125+ rushing yards (+220)
Speaking of Gibbs, he should continue that hot streak heading into Week 9. The Dolphins’ run defense has been rough, ranked 31st in PFF with a 51 run-defense grade and 26th in DVOA against the run. While they’re allowing only 113 rushing yards per game, this offensive line could be the best unit they’ve faced this season. How the Lions offense finished the game against the Vikings last week, where they ran it down their throats, felt like a moment when everything clicked on the offensive line.
Miami has faced top-end running back talent this season in Christian McCaffrey and Kenneth Walker III, but Gibbs has turned his game up during the winning streak. He’s averaging 140 yards per game, and that’s up against one of the best defenses in the Vikings and a solid defense in the Green Bay Packers. Facing a defense that is struggling to stop the run, I think Gibbs has another stellar performance on Sunday.
Bet potential winnings: $10 -> $32
2. Malik Willis under 208.5 passing yards (-113)
Back-to-back matchups against struggling offenses, I think Detroit can take care of business defensively. Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis is averaging 181 passing yards a game, and despite the Lions being without cornerback D.J. Reed, this secondary has been improving during this win streak. The Dolphins’ passing attack also lacks playmakers, which should make it easier for the Detroit defense to defend.
The Lions secondary held the Vikings with a fully healthy offense of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and Kyler Murray to just 185 passing yards. Now, they face a team with Malik Washington and Greg Dulcich as their top options. No disrespect, but those players are not on the same level as the Vikings’ receiving core.
The Dolphins’ poor offensive line play will also help. Ranked 31st in pass blocking with a 53.6 PFF grade, going up against a Lions pass rush ranked third (79.9 grade) in PFF, Willis could have a long day in the pocket. He can move his legs to extend plays, but he might have to do that all game against Lions EDGE Aidan Hutchinson. I can’t see Willis having a dominant game against an improving defense that will play their hearts out for their star linebacker, Jack Campbell.
Bet potential winnings: $10 -> $18.85
3. Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown (+180)
Covering tight ends has been a problem for the Dolphins defense. Through seven games, they’ve allowed 483 yards and six touchdowns by tight ends. The Lions’ passing offense could be searching for answers if St. Brown has a limited snap count due to his injury, which opens the door for a touchdown for tight end Sam LaPorta.
LaPorta had a hot start to the season, scoring three touchdowns and getting 40+ yards per game in the first five games. The past two weeks have been a step back for LaPorta: four catches for 51 yards, with no touchdowns. Facing a team that almost averages a tight end touchdown every week, I think he finds the end zone here and has a solid performance on Sunday afternoon.
Bet potential winnings: $10 -> $28
If you want to turn these three single bets into a same-game parlay, the odds are +1438 and $10 -> $153.85
Record: 10-11
Brandon’s Bold Bet
If you want to go bold and build a big parlay that could pay well, put these three bets together in a parlay:
- Sam LaPorta over 48.5 yards (-113)
- Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ touchdowns (+145)
- Sione Vaki Alt rushing yards: 20+ (+114)
I talked earlier about the tight end struggles for the Dolphins, and LaPorta will not only find the end zone, but I think he finishes with over 50 yards. Miami is allowing an average of 69 yards against tight ends this season, so asking him to hit just under 20 yards below that seems possible. In every game where LaPorta has gotten over 50+ yards, he’s also scored, so my above prediction and this one go hand in hand.
As I mentioned earlier, the Dolphins’ run defense has been rough, and while I think Gibbs will have a good day, I see him finding the end zone not once, but twice this week. Detroit will lean on the ground game, and once they build a big enough lead, they will want to drain the clock and get the game over with. That opens the door for backup running back Sione Vaki to get more snaps and chances to rush for over 25 yards.
He’s coming off a career performance against the Vikings and is earning the Lions coaching staff’s trust and confidence to get the ball more. He will start to chip into Gibbs’ carry load a bit, but Gibbs is best when he is fresh and not overloaded, so this will help both of them achieve their goals. Playing this rough run defense again amplifies how much easier this should be for Vaki to hit. He is questionable with an ankle injury, so if you want to bet this, wait until the inactives are announced 90 minutes before kickoff.
Odds +770 and bet $10 -> $87.04
Record: 0-7
Do-it-all parlay
If you want to combine all six plays into a parlay and go big, here are the odds:
- Jahmyr Gibbs 125+ rushing yards
- Malik Willis under 208.5 passing yards
- Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown
- Sam LaPorta over 48.5 yards
- Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ touchdowns
- Sione Vaki Alt rushing yards: 20+
Odds +9168 and bet $10 -> $926.83
Record: 0-7
Use this information however you like. You can ignore it and watch the game, or, if you want to risk some money, follow these recommendations or test your own luck. Whatever you decide, please gamble responsibly and bet only money you can afford to lose.
