Wins Above Replacement is a statistic that aims to give proper value to every part of what a baseball player does, be it defensively, at the plate, and on the basepaths. It even gives extra credit for players who are playing demanding positions. Bobby Witt Jr., meanwhile, is a shortstop who runs the bases like his hair is on fire, is a great hitter, and also just happens to be one of the best defensive players in the entire league.
As you might expect, Witt has accumulated a lot of WAR in his five
seasons in the big leagues. Per Fangraphs’ version of the stat, Witt has 33.2 WAR. That total ranks fourth overall since 2021, with Witt only behind future Hall of Famers Shohei Ohtani (51.2 WAR), 15.7 Aaron Judge (44.6), and Juan Soto (33.3). That total is also, obviously, first among all Royals players during that time.
In fact, even though he’s only played five years, Witt has been the most valuable Royal if you move the bar further in the past. Since 2016, he ranks first, with second place being Whit Merrifield’s 17.3 WAR. Since 2006, Witt still ranks first, eclipsing the entire Royals careers of Alex Gordon (31.5 WAR) and Lorenzo Cain (20.9). Witt’s five years in Kansas City have also been more productive than the entire Royals careers of Zack Greinke (26.8), Carlos Beltran (24.9), Mike Sweeney (20.2), David DeJesus (19.7), Danny Duffy (16.3), and more.
You have to go all the way back to 1983 to find a player who has accumulated more WAR in that time than Witt’s five seasons with the franchise. That player, predictably, is George Brett, who accumulated 33.9 WAR from 1983 until he retired in 1993.
Why am I saying this? I’m saying this because I recognize that Witt is great. Everybody does. And yet, when I look at his 2026 and, heck, his 2025 campaign, I’m…disappointed, somehow.
This year, especially, it seems that Witt has not been himself. Witt hit a minimum of six triples a year every single one of his first four seasons; this year, he has one. Witt has never hit fewer than 20 home runs; this year, he’s at 17, with the lowest isolated slugging percentage of his career. His batting average has dropped significantly in two consecutive seasons.
And yet, when you look at his career averages, he is right on the money:
- 2026: .283/.360/.451, 124 wRC+, 3.02 steals per 10 games, 1.35 home runs per 10 games
- Career: .289/.343/.495, 128 wRC+, 2.47 steals per 10 games, 1.62 home runs per 10 games
This year is a little bit of a different mix; for the first time, Witt is walking over 10% of the time. He’s stealing bases at the second-highest clip of his career. He’s not hitting for much power, but he’s getting on base more, and so his overall offensive production is essentially what he’s done, in aggregate, over his whole career.
I think Witt’s monster 2024 season has warped everyone’s perceptions of what he is and what he can be. He posted a 170 wRC+, and we all thought that he could be an offensive powerhouse moving forward. But two years later, that is looking more and more like an outlier. I’m not going to say it was a fluke, because he earned it.
However, Witt’s 2024 was indeed an outlier. Really, Witt is more Francisco Lindor than Mookie Betts or Mike Trout: a consistently very good hitter and excellent shortstop. What Witt is not is a game-changing offensive force. He simply doesn’t hit for enough power, and I don’t think he will ever adjust his game to hunt for home runs.
Witt could prove us all wrong and put together another monster season. That would be fun. And, again, Witt is an incredible baseball player and Royals fans should thank the stars every time they see him. It’s just that we will walk down the road of disappointment if we’re hoping that he’ll be that game-breaking offensive force again. He is great as he is, and we’ll have to accept that rather than hunger for more.
