In the movie “Moneyball”, one of the scouts told younger Billy Beane that all of us are told one day that we can no longer play a children’s game. Some of us are told when we are children and some of us are told much
later on, but we are all told. Father Time is undefeated. Sometimes he defeats us by zapping our ability to remain healthy. Sometimes he defeats us by diminishing our skills. Yet, he defeats all of us at some point.
Being an Astros fan is probably similar to being a fan of most teams. Commentators like us are fond of saying that this offseason is the most important offseason yet. Then, we will turn around and say the exact same thing next offseason. The Astros have a lot of important decisions between now and the end of the Spring Training. So, the one we are focusing on here is likely not the most consequential in terms of winning and losing, but it is likely the most challenging decision to handle in terms of relationships and public relations.
It is sad for me to say, but Lance McCullers is likely done as a productive big league pitcher. I don’t say that flippantly or sarcastically. Every Astros fan should have a ton of love for McCullers for what he has done for the organization. He threw nearly 30 consecutive curve balls to close out the Yankees in the 2017 ALCS. He was the de facto staff ace during the 2021 season and agreed to pitch on short rest in the playoffs. He came back in 2022 late in the season and pitched six shutout innings to help the Astros beat the Mariners in the ALDS.
These are all great memories and it would not be hyperbole to say that the Astros do not win either of their rings without Lance McCullers Jr. Maybe even more importantly, McCullers clearly bleeds orange. Even last season you could see him gutting out every pitch and every plate appearance. He gave it everything he had. Anyone that sent him or his family death threats is a scumbag. All he has done is give everything he had for this organization.
Yet, he is not one of the five best starting pitchers on this team. He does not want to pitch in the bullpen and that might not be a good role for him anyway based on his struggles to throw strikes. Unfortunately, he still has 17 million left on his contract for one last season. Thus, we get to the crux of the problem. How do you deal with a highly paid pitcher that is not one of the 13 best pitchers on the team?
This is not a unique problem. Teams face these kinds of decisions frequently. The last time this impacted the Astros was at the end of Craig Biggio’s career. He was not the best option at second base or anywhere else. Still, he was chasing 3000 hits and he had enjoyed a long and brilliant career. You want to allow guys like that the opportunity to finish out on their own terms. It builds good will with that player and the fanbase at large. Astros fans can feel better about how Biggio’s career ended than how guys like Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman went out.
So, we ask ourselves a series of questions. First, has Lance McCullers done enough to warrant the preferential treatment? That’s not an easy question to answer. He will not be a Hall of Famer like Biggio and was not an all-star. Yet, he was integral in two World Series titles. So, that one is a toss up depending on everyone’s personal perspective.
Secondly, playing Biggio did not prevent the Astros from winning anything. They were a bad baseball team and playing Chris Burke or anyone else might have won two or three more games, but two or three more games wasn’t going to make one bit of difference. On the flip side, the Astros were within one game of the playoffs last season and could be again this year. Would a replacement level arm have won them one extra game last season? Would any of the cast of AAAA type pitchers get them one or two more key wins this season? If he is as ineffective as he was last season the answer is probably yes.
Third, as much as we might wax poetic about what Chris Burke could have been, Burke was not going to be an all-star. It’s not like trading away Kenny Lofton, Curt Schilling, or Bobby Abreu. Burke was a mediocre baseball player. Would Lance McCullers block a would be all-star or up and coming all-star? Looking at the depth chart would indicate the answer is no.
So, the Astros are left with three unappealing options. The first option is for them to simply cut the chord and release McCullers from his contract. Yes, that means eating the 17 million, but there are scenarios where you can get less than zero. If a replacement level pitcher would be better than him then you are better off accepting your losses and releasing him. It also gives him the option of either retiring or trying to catch on somewhere else. The downside is that it creates a very Bagwell like situation for the end of a career. Bagwell was forced out because he could no longer do it. So, while he retired as an Astro, it was not completely his choice. The same would be true of McCullers in this scenario.
The second option is to roster him and simply find a role where he doesn’t kill you. That could mean putting him in the bullpen and allowing him to serve as a long reliever. Therefore, he could have a 6.00 ERA, but it would mostly be in blowouts where the issue wasn’t in doubt. If he miraculously finds something then you’d get the benefit of that and recoup some value. The downside is that he would be taking the spot of a better pitcher. Some of us want the best 26 guys to break camp and he would not be one of the best 26 guys.
The third and final option is the option to disable him on paper and allow him to “rehab” his way back to the majors. This has limited efficacy because MLB limits the amount of rehab time you have and McCullers would have to agree to it. It would involve a fairly benign label like “right shoulder discomfort” and the team could monitor him and activate him if they have an acute need or if he suddenly looks much better. The advantage is that you are leaving the door open for him to contribute without wasting a roster spot. The disadvantage is that there is no rule mechanism for this. You are pulling a fast one and you would need him to agree to that.
I personally think option number one is the most likely. It is also the saddest of the options. Big league players are big leaguers for a reason. Most of it is talent, but there is a considerable amount that is mental makeup. These guys just have more confidence and mental toughness than most of us. It allows them to succeed under pressure. It allows them to bounce back from slumps and return from career threatening injuries. Unfortunately, it also prevents most of them from knowing when they are done. It also keeps them from listening to people like me say that they are done. That can be a good thing in most instances. Sometimes it isn’t. The fan in me wants me to be wrong about Lance McCullers Jr. The analyst in me knows I probably right. The Astros have the tough decision of whether they listen to the cold and calculating side of their brains or the human side. I don’t envy them at all.
