Every analyst has their favorite metrics and mine are usually the ones that can be used for pitchers and hitters. Some of the numbers point more to luck and some of them are underlying numbers that can help explain why someone is good or not. When we use those kinds of reciprocal numbers then what is good for hitters is bad for pitchers and vice versa.
So, we are looking at ten starting pitchers because it is likely we will see all of them in some capacity this season. The first five numbers are the exact
same as we have used with the hitters and have the same general averages. We will add a sixth category that is called left on base percentage (LOB%). It is another luck factor that can explain why pitchers overachieve and underachieve. Since some of you are reading for the first time I will include an explanation for all of our numbers below.
- Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.
- Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.
- BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.
- Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.
- HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.
- LOB%: It is pretty self-explanatory. It is the number of runners that get stranded on base. The league average tends to be around 70 percent. Of course, there is some debate as to whether pitchers control that or not.
Jason Alexander
Evaluating pitchers like Alexander (AKA George Costanza) is difficult because much of these numbers are minor league numbers. We notice things like BABIP and LOB% being worse in the minors likely because fielding is also worse. So, the aggregate might not be applicable here. What is applicable are those numbers like chase rate, hard hit rate, and contact rate. None of those numbers look good for Alexander.
Even with excellent command, Alexander will likely always be below average because he is not deceptive enough and he just doesn’t have electric stuff. There are some glimmers of hope in the home run rate. That will almost certainly go down if he spends a full season in Houston. However, he is likely due to see a rise in BABIP and dip in left on base percentage. The net result is likely a regression.
Spencer Arrighetti
Arrighetti is a little better at missing bats than Alexander, so the prognosis is somewhat better for him. The key will be which of the push and pull factors take over. He should give up less hard contact this year, but the BABIP will almost certainly go up. The key for Arrighetti will be getting gains in command and keeping the ball in the ballpark. We can certainly hope for both and if both happen he should be a viable end of the rotation starter.
A.J. Blubaugh
Blubaugh is almost exactly average across the board. This is nut crunching time for Dana Brown and Joe Espada. Do you put him in the 7th or 8th inning where his stuff could play up or do you send him down to Sugar Land to get a little more seasoning? He will not be as good as he was last September, but he could be a really good high leverage reliever now. He also could be a number three starter in the future. It will be interesting to see which direction they go with him.
Hunter Brown
2023 was a rough year for Brown, so it is fascinating to look at him from a longitudinal point of view. In other words, the underlying numbers show exactly how he has grown as a pitcher. He probably will regress some in his BABIP and left on base percentage, but he could potentially continue to ascend in the other categories. For him the command is the key because the stuff is just outrageously good.
Mike Burrows
Burrows only pitched three innings in 2023 due to Tommy John. I’m not basing anything on three innings. The key for Burrows will be the pitching lab. He has given up harder contact, but that might be mitigated by changing his pitching profile. He has been pretty adept at missing bats, so if the contact gets muted some he could become an above average starter.
Colton Gordon
2023 and 2024 came at the minor league level, so that can explain the jump in most of the categories. He got more guys to chase in the minors and they didn’t produce hard contact. Can that happen again? Based on the 2025 numbers, his numbers were more or less where they should have been. Based on that he should be a seventh starter. You could do a lot worse stashing a guy like that in AAA.
Cristian Javier
Before Tommy John, Javier’s super power is that no one could really square him up. It was more about late action on his fastball and not velocity. That has created a consistently low BABIP with low home run rates. We could see an improvement based on the left on base percentage, but he needs to get that rising fastball back or he will be just another average pitcher.
Tatsuya Imai
These are Japanese numbers, so I don’t know how seriously to treat them. Let’s assume that it is somewhere between AA and AAA. Every category would get you giddy if you saw it from one of your farmhands. Facing the best hitters in the world will undoubtedly produce worse results, but he has a chance to be a really good number two starter.
Lance McCullers
Is this glass half empty or half full? Or has the glass completely shattered? McCullers is the ultimate question of whether we give into narratives or admit what we are seeing. If you believe in narratives then you would say this is his first healthy offseason in half a decade, so you would hope for a return to aggregate. That would be an average pitcher. The alternative is that 2025 was who he is. He is not rosterable in those conditions. I think everyone is rooting for the former, but the latter is much more likely.
Ryan Weiss
If Japan is AAA and the KBO is more like AA. Still, Weiss never put these numbers up when he was in AA, so he definitely found something in Korea. In particular, he has done a great job of limiting hard contact in Korea. Still, the BABIP numbers will certainly go up and ML hitters will make harder contact and more contact. So, he has a chance to either below a four or five starter or a solid middle reliever depending on how the Astros want to use him.
It may seem like the Astros have a ton of end of the rotation starters and that is probably true. The good news is that most teams don’t have this many arms capable of being functional starters. The question will be what these pitching coaches get out of the newcomers. What do you think? Who on this list are you high on?
