This is the first edition of Northwestern’s weekly volleyball column Set Point. It will analyze and react to every part of the ‘Cats’ season from exhibition games to the end-of-year conference tournament.
Year one under Tim Nollan didn’t go to plan. Northwestern went 5-23 and oftentimes looked like it wasn’t playing the same sport as the top dogs of the Big Ten.
Year two under Nollan was a different story. NU won 17 games, including seven conference victories, and picked itself up off the Big Ten doormat.
Year three under Nollan will define where the program is going. Can the Wildcats sustain a competitive level of play, or is their rightful place the darkness of the conference basement?
In many ways, 2026 is a make-or-break year for a program desperately trying to shatter the surface and stay above water. Following the departure of eight players from last season’s team, the ‘Cats have their work cut out for them to stay afloat.
But what does that mean?
The bare minimum for this season should be making the inaugural Big Ten Conference Tournament. The top 15 teams in the conference standings at the end of the year will qualify for the tournament, while the Big Ten’s bottom three will stay home in shame.
Last season, Northwestern would have been the second-to-last team to secure a postseason bid, finishing 14th with a conference record of 7-13. Iowa, which finished 15th and would have been the last to qualify in 2025, won 30% of its conference games with six victories. As the conference is shrinking from 20 to 17 Big Ten games this season, a floor of 30% to make the tournament means the ‘Cats must win at least five or six conference games this season.
6-11 seems like an incredibly achievable record, until you factor in the projected strength of the Big Ten this year. The 2026 AVCA preseason poll has eight Big Ten teams ranked in its top 25, including four in the top 10. To make things worse, NU travels to face six of the eight ranked teams on the road— all but No. 1 Nebraska and No. 20 USC. If the top-end talent of the conference proves to outclass the Wildcats mightily, they must go 6-3 in the other games to safely qualify for the Big Ten Tournament. That doesn’t seem as easy.
Furthermore, there are several offseason and preseason concerns that could lead to the doomsday scenario unfolding and NU failing to make the Big Ten Tournament.
First, the roster has zero collegiate-setting experience. As I broke down in Northwestern’sroster preview, NU lost an abundance of proven production when Lauren Carter and Sienna Noordermeer graduated from the program. Nollan’s solution to the gaping hole was signing two setters out of high school, Ellie Stiernagle and Kaitlyn Bodnar. Though both excelled throughout their high school careers and Stiernagle projects to be a capable day-one starter, first-year players always bring variance. If neither Stiernagle nor Bodnar adjust immediately to the Big Ten level of play, Northwestern will be in for a long year.
A second red flag that could lead to the Wildcat demise is blocking. NU averaged 1.93 blocks per set last season, ahead of only Ohio State in the Big Ten rankings, and didn’t add any major pieces that project to quell this problem. In fact, it may get worse. Nollan replaced last year’s second-leading blocker Bella Simkus with two first-year middle blockers. Returnees Kayla Kauffman and Gabrielle Gerry will likely see the majority of playing time at the middle position out of the gates, but both have areas to improve upon. Gerry has shown some major blocking deficiencies while Kauffman led the team in blocking last year but mightily struggled to hit efficiently. An increased role for the talented outside blocker Campbell Paris should help shore up the net defense a little bit, but the blocking depth will remain a major question throughout the season.
Now, let’s look on the bright side.
Let’s say the setting position is passable, the blocking improves to just below average and other possible concerns such as serving and mental errors don’t plague the ‘Cats. What could make Northwestern take the next step in 2026?
Well, the back-row defense should be elite. The ‘Cats have three liberos in Drew Wright, Gigi Navarrete and Lauren Dignan, who are all experienced and talented. All three were incredibly impactful last season and should only get better. Nollan has already proven his adaptability in playing multiple liberos at once, so at least two-thirds of the defensive trio should be on the court most of the time. This emphasis on defense should do wonders for the ‘Cats and could make up for some of the lackluster blocking, while also making the setter’s job a whole lot easier.
In addition, Northwestern has pure firepower at the outside hitting positions. Sophomore Bella Bullington had 291 kills last year despite starting only 12 matches in her first taste of college volleyball. The aforementioned Paris hit .287 while averaging over two kills per set. The Wildcats also brought in Mara Štiglic from Utah State, who started 31 matches for the Aggies last season and led the team with 431 kills. This triad has all of the potential in the world if they can avoid frequent errors and consistently receive quality assists. NU also signed talented first-years Clara Schramm and Simone Huarte, who could inject even more creativity and energy into the hitting rotation.
If the bads aren’t all that bad and the goods become greats, Northwestern is poised to take another step forward this season.
The Wildcat schedule supports improvement. The nonconference portion should serve as a warm-up for Big Ten play as all 11 of Northwestern’s nonconference games are winnable. Northwestern will build confidence early on in the year, and its young players will gain valuable experience as it prepares for the gauntlet of conference play.
Once Big Ten play begins, the real challenge is upon the Wildcats. They will play some of the best teams in the nation daily and will need to maintain belief and chemistry. The most important thing for NU will be beating the teams they are supposed to beat. It can’t drop a game to Rutgers or Maryland if it wants to make the Big Ten Tournament. Northwestern’s goal is to be the best of the middle class of the Big Ten, which means beating almost everyone except the premier ranked teams.
However, the one thing to take away heading into the season is that Northwestern has the talent and potential to take yet another step toward becoming a competitive team in the Big Ten. Although there are several question marks, some of which were apparent in the ‘Cats’ first exhibition game against Milwaukee, 2026 could be the year in which Northwestern truly emerges as a volleyball hotspot. The Wildcat campaign begins at George Mason in seven days.
