Well, that was not the Wild Card round we wanted. This Cubs team provided the highest of highs and the lowest of lows in 2026. We’ll think of this as the year of the walkoff, brought to you in no small part by a pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. Pete Crow-Armstrong notching the first 40-40 season in the history of the franchise is clearly the defining highlight of the season, and we’ll all celebrate his MVP award when it’s official. But at the end of the day this team hit one of their
down stretches towards the end of September and really just never turned it around. It’s disappointing, but baseball is gonna baseball.
Without the Cubs cheering interest in the Division Series this guide will return to its original vibe: a slightly snarky, but hopefully informative, look at all of the divisional action that kicks off tomorrow in Cleveland. Most of the former Cubs in the field were eliminated in the Wild Card round. So unless you’re really pulling for Cody Bellinger and the Yankees for some unfathomable reason, might I propose jumping on the bandwagon of the world’s most famous Chicagoan: Pope Leo XIV and cheering for the White Sox?
White Sox vs. Guardians: The choices of Master Samwise
To cheer for Chicago or to cheer against Chicago? That is a deep question many Cubs fans face today. As a Cubs fan who grew up far away and moved to Chicago in 2015, I’ve just really never had the animosity for the Sox that many native Chicagoans profess. Cheering for Cleveland, Tampa Bay or San Diego over the Sox really just feels ridiculous. There is no world where I’m taking Atlanta or Milwaukee over a team from Chicago and don’t make me laugh by suggesting I cheer for either coastal Death Star, have we met?
The Sox won their first playoff series since 2005 taking out the Astros in Houston. They’ll return to Chicago with a flawed, but scrappy team. Manager Will Venable will send Hagen Smith, the Game 1 opener from the Wild Card round, to the mound for Game 1 of the American League Divisional Series. Hey, if it’s not broke, don’t fix it [VIDEO].
To advance to the American League Championship Series, the Sox will need to thwart the Guardians. The Guardians have won the AL Central for the last three seasons, although they’ve only posted 90+ wins one time in that period. They’ll send Parker Messick, Gavin Williams and (likely) Foster Griffin to the mound.
On the position side Cleveland is still led by José Ramírez, although the future Hall of Famer had a down year this season only slashing .235/.320/.368 with 12 home runs with a wRC+ of 92 in 544 plate appearances. To put that in perspective, his 2025 slashline was .283/.360/.503 with 30 home runs and a wRC+ of 133 in 673 plate appearances. Savvy readers will note that 130 plate appearance difference, it seems pretty clear J-Ram was dealing with injuries this year. It’s worth keeping an eye on whether the drive all players destined for Cooperstown have will kick in in October transcending whatever issues hamstrung him in 2026. It’s worth noting he seemed to tap into that for his 1,000th RBI, which came on this solo home run in September [VIDEO].
The bullpens are closer in raw talent than you might think, with the Guardians rostering one of the best closers in the game in Cade Smith and the White Sox countering with Grant Taylor (who I discussed at length in the Wild Card Series guide). The Guardians relievers put up a 3.54 ERA off a 3.70 FIP with 46 saves in 63 opportunities this season. By fWAR their bullpen ranked second in the American League behind Boston. Meanwhile the White Sox relievers put up a 3.70 ERA off a 4.10 FIP with 41 saves in 71 opportunities. They ranked fifth by fWAR in the AL.
The regular season between these two teams was about as even as it gets with the White Sox holding a 7-6 edge over the course of the season.
Braves vs. Dodgers: Out of the frying pan into the fryer
The Phillies gave the Braves a real run for their money coming back to win Game 2 of the Wild Card round before ultimately succumbing in Game 3. The Braves won handily, and probably feel a bit of swagger heading to LA. They’ll need every ounce of that swagger to take on the defending World Series Champion Dodgers.
There are not probable pitchers announced for either team beyond the Dodgers Game 1 hurler, Tarik Skubal. FanGraphs Roster Resource currently projects Game 1 as a bullpen game for the Braves followed by Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow following Skubal for the Dodgers [VIDEO].
Starting pitching seems like a definitive edge to the Dodgers, if only because L.A. will line up three aces and Atlanta will counter with a future Hall of Fame ace, a solid guy and their bullpen. It’s a similar story on the offensive side of the equation where the Braves are led by first baseman Matt Olson who hit 41 home runs in 2026 plus catcher Drake Baldwin, former MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. and Cubs killer Ozzie Albies. But the Dodgers are sporting the second best offense in MLB behind the Chicago Cubs. It turns out even relatively down years from guys like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman is still utterly dominant relative to the rest of the league [VIDEO].
Even the bullpen, which had given the Dodgers some trouble down the stretch, shows a large edge for LA. While some of their relievers struggled at times this season, they righted the ship in the final two weeks of the season. Closer Tanner Scott had a 2.69 ERA off a 2.10 FIP with 26 saves in 63.2 innings. Braves closer Raisel Iglesias compares favorably to Scott head-to-head with a 2.55 ERA off a 3.17 FIP and 34 saves in 60 innings, however the remainder of Atlanta’s pen just isn’t in the same league as the Dodgers [VIDEO].
For what it’s worth, despite all of the statistical indicators pointing in the direction of the Dodgers, Atlanta won this series handily in 2026 taking five of six meetings between the two teams.
Yankees vs. Rays: The steward and the king
All due apologies to the Tampa Bay Rays with the title here, but until the sabermetrically inclined little front office who could can hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy they are going to have to live with looking like the underdog against the Yankees. Yes, that’s even true when the Rays won 98 games to their division rival’s 93. Yes, even when you’ve narrowly beaten the Yankees head-to-head in seven of 13 games.
Admittedly, the Rays will likely get a shot at the king playing without their best hitter. Aaron Judge was left off the Wild Card roster due to a calf strain that has kept him from fulling engaging in baseball activities. As of Friday afternoon, it seems probable he’ll be left off the Division Series roster as well. Ben Rice did an excellent job filling Judge’s size 17 shoes. The Yankees first baseman went five for ten with two home runs and six RBI in the Wild Card round. Meanwhile, the Rays best hitter is absolutely 23-year-old Junior Caminero who hit .276/.360/.524 with 42 home runs and a wRC+ of 142 in 702 plate appearances. Caminero is in the PCA tier of outstanding young MLB talent as evidenced by the fact that it was the second 40-home run campaign of his young career [VIDEO].
The Rays were actually ahead of the Yankees offensively this season, pacing the American League in position player fWAR with the Yankees 2.6 fWAR behind (admittedly, in one fewer game).
The Yankees hold the edge in pitching, however, and you don’t need to look further than Cam Schlittler’s performance against the Red Sox to see why. While both the Rays and the Yankees have excellent starting and relief pitching the Yankees just edge out the Rays in both categories. While the Rays will send Drew Rasmussen and his 2.67 ERA off a 2.82 FIP in 172 innings to the mound in Game 1 followed by Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez, the Yankees will counter with Gerrit Cole, followed by Wild Card hero Schlittler and (probably) Max Fried. You can marvel over what a weapon Schlittler can be reliving his 10 strikeouts against the Red Sox below [VIDEO].
Padres vs. Brewers: Fire and water
The day before the Cubs began their unceremonial march to being swept out of the Wild Card round by the Padres I wrote about my concerns regarding the way they were limping into the Postseason on the back of a difficult schedule. Part of my concern was also how hot the Padres were finishing the season with a 16-2 mark in their last 18 games. Well, now make that an 18-2 mark in their last 20 games as they head into Milwaukee to take on the team who posted the best record in baseball this season: The Brewers.
To be clear, the Brewers aren’t exactly limping into the playoffs. They won their last five games and went 15-5 in their last 20. This is truly two teams at their peak colliding. It should be an incredible series for baseball fans.
The Brewers will hand the baseball to likely NL Cy Young award winner Jacob Misiorowski while the Padres will counter with veteran Robbie Ray. Baseball is prone to the strangest outcomes, so it is entirely possible that Ray will outduel Misiorowski just because, however it’s hard to fathom they guy who’s thrown more than 1,000 pitches over 100 MPH as a starter flopping in early October [VIDEO]:
In game two, Logan Henderson will take on Michael King in a matchup that is sure to give Cubs fans flashbacks to unhittability, and while things are unannounced for Game 3, it certainly seems like a Brewers bullpen situation led by some combination of Dustin May, Shane Drohan and Robert Gasser going toe-to-toe with Nick Pivetta.
The Padres should hold the advantage offensively if they can figure out the Brewers elite pitching. Fair warning, Cubs fans may not like the next video, but I really don’t know a better way to show how much damage Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado can do early in the game with the bat than this [VIDEO].
The bullpens are probably comparable with maybe a slight edge to the Padres? The question mark is deliberate, it’s hard to know how it will play out in reality but the San Diego bullpen can basically shut a game down after the sixth inning with some combination of Mason Miller, Bradgley Rodriguez, Adrian Morejon, Yuki Matsui and Jason Adam. Frankly, that list is deep enough you can imagine it shutting down two games played on back-to-back nights with that crew [VIDEO].
That’s no shade to an excellent bullpen in Milwaukee. Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby are a fierce trio at the end of games, but you’d absolutely rather be the team wielding the five-headed monster than the three-headed monster to close out games in October.
It’s probably more important that both of these teams are the hottest versions of themselves than anything that came before. That said, it is worth noting that the Padres won the season series four games to two.
