The most significant change at the top of the final bracket projection of the regular season was a swap on the 3 and 4 lines, with idle Gonzaga, who next plays in the WCC semifinals on Monday night, swapping places with Texas Tech, who lost at home to TCU on Tuesday and next visits a BYU squad that’s dropped three in a row and is desperate to get back on track before the Big 12 Tournament begins.
At the bottom of the at-large pool, both Indiana and Auburn have returned to the field, following New
Mexico’s stunning home loss to Colorado State and San Diego State’s more predictable setback at Boise State—the Aztecs’ second loss in a row. Both the Hoosiers and Tigers might find themselves right back out on Monday, as they hit the road on Saturday.
More on what’s to come between Friday and Sunday after today’s full bracket and rundown.
NOTE: Changes since Tuesday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) Tennessee State (OVC)
▼(8) Kentucky
(9) Iowa
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Arkansas
(12) Yale (Ivy)
(4) Kansas
(13) Utah Valley (WAC)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Wisconsin
(11) South Florida (American)
(3) Iowa State
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Villanova
▼(10) Missouri
(2) Michigan State
(15) Central Arkansas (ASUN)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(1) UConn
(16) LIU (NEC)/UMBC (AE)
(8) Georgia
▲(9) UCLA
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) North Carolina
(12) High Point (Big South)
▼(4) Texas Tech
(13) UNCW (CAA)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
▲(6) Louisville
—/★(11) Santa Clara/Auburn
(3) Purdue
(14) Navy (Patriot)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▲(7) Miami (Fla.)
▼(10) UCF
(2) Florida (SEC)
(15) ETSU (SoCon)
(2) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
(16) Howard (MEAC)/Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)
(8) Clemson
▲(9) Texas A&M
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(5) St. John’s (Big East)
(12) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
(4) Alabama
(13) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) Tennessee
▼/★(11) SMU/Indiana
(3) Nebraska
(14) Troy (Sun Belt)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
▼(7) Saint Mary’s
(10) Ohio State
(2) Houston
(15) Wright State (Horizon)
(3) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
▼(16) Merrimack (MAAC)
(8) Utah State (MW)
(9) NC State
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Vanderbilt
(12) Belmont (MVC)
(4) Virginia
(13) Liberty (CUSA)
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
▼(11) Texas
▲(3) Gonzaga (WCC)
(14) UC Irvine (Big West)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
(7) Saint Louis (A 10)
▲(10) TCU
(2) Illinois
▲(15) Portland State (Big Sky)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: Ohio State, TCU, Missouri, Texas
Last Four IN: Santa Clara, SMU, Auburn, Indiana
First Four OUT: Virginia Tech, New Mexico, VCU, San Diego State
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Cincinnati, Cal, USC
On Deck: Oklahoma, West Virginia, Boise State, Tulsa
ARRIVALS (2): Auburn, Indiana
DEPARTURES: New Mexico, San Diego State
Conference Breakdown
SEC (11): Florida (auto bid), Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas, Auburn (First Four)
Big Ten (10): Michigan (auto bid), Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa, UCLA, Ohio State, Indiana (First Four)
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami (Fla.), Clemson, NC State, SMU (First Four)
Big 12 (8): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, BYU, UCF, TCU
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s (auto bid), Villanova
WCC (3): Gonzaga (auto bid), Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara (First Four)
26 one-bid conferences
Games to Watch
- All times are p.m. Eastern, unless noted.
- Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance with standout games in bold.
- Teams in the field are preceded by their seed number (1) to (16).
- Teams out of the bracket but still alive for an at-large are marked with an (OUT).
Friday
DAYTIME HOOPS
ASUN Quarterfinals: 12, 2:30*, 5*, and 7:30* (ESPN+ ($))
Big South Quarterfinals: 12, 2:30*, 6, and 8:30* (ESPN+ ($))
MVC Quarterfinals: 1, 3:30*, 7, and 9:30* (ESPN+ ($) and on MVC TV Partners)
CAA First Round: 2 (FloHoops ($))
Later Conference Tournament Action
SoCon First Round: 5 and 7:30* (ESPN+ ($) and on Nexstar-owned stations in the SoCon footprint)
MAAC Quarterfinals (Night 1): 6 and 8:30* (ESPN+ ($))
Sun Belt Fourth Round: 6 and 8:30* (ESPN+ ($))
Summit Quarterfinals (Night 2): 7 and 9:30* (Midco SN/Summit League Network ($))
OVC Semifinals: 8 and 10:30* (ESPNU)
WCC Second Round: 9 and 11:30* (ESPN+ ($))
(12) Miami (Ohio) at Ohio, 9 (ESPN2)
(5) St. John’s at (OUT) Seton Hall, 9 (FS1)
(10) UCF at (OUT) West Virginia, 8 (CBSSN)
UNLV at (OUT) San Diego State, 10 (CBSSN)
(OUT) VCU at (OUT) Dayton, 7 (ESPN2)
Northern Illinois at (OUT) Akron, 6 (CBSSN)
There’s plenty of elimination basketball on tap today, and not just in conference tournaments. Undefeated Miami closes its regular season out in Athens, where the RedHawks have struggled historically. Miami last won at Ohio U in 2011—and that squad, still coached by Charlie Coles, needed three OTs to do that. Lose this one, and the Travis Steele’s team will need the auto bid to dance.
Seton Hall has a huge opportunity to boost its hopes, while possibly depriving St. John’s of a share of the Big East regular-season title. West Virginia and San Diego State both need wins to stay in the at-large picture, while the VCU and Dayton winner will take the lead in the race for a second bid out of the Atlantic 10.
Saturday
(5) Arkansas at (10) Missouri, 12 (ESPN)
(2) Houston at (OUT) Oklahoma State, 12 (CBS)
Xavier at (7) Villanova, 12 (TNT/TruTV)
(OUT) Virginia Tech at (4) Virginia, 12 (CW)
Georgia Tech at (8) Clemson, 12 (ACCN)
(1) UConn at Marquette, 12:30 (Fox)
Big South Semifinals: 12 and 2:30* (ESPN+ ($))
NEC Semifinals: 12 and 2 (YES/NESN Nation/ESPN+ ($))
SoCon Quarterfinals: 12, 2:30*, 6, and 8:30* (ESPN+ ($) and on SC ETV affiliates)
CAA Second Round: 12, 2:30*, 6, and 8:30* (FloHoops ($))
America East Quarterfinals: 1 (2 games), 2, 4, (ESPN+ ($))
MVC Semifinals: 3:30 and 6* (CBSSN)
ASUN Semifinals: 5 and 7:30* (ESPN+ ($))
Summit League Semifinals: 8 and 10:30* (CBSSN)
MAAC Quarterfinals (Night 2): 6 and 8:30* (ESPN+ ($))
Sun Belt Quarterfinals: 6:30 and 9* (ESPN+ ($))
Big Sky First Round: 7:30 and 10* (Scripps Sports Montana/ESPN+ ($))
WCC Third Round: 9 and 11:30* (ESPN+ ($))
There’s lots more conference tournament action on tap Saturday afternoon. In regular-season action, Mizzou needs to split its season series with the Razorbacks after getting blown out by Oklahoma, who is back in the hunt, on Tuesday night.
(5) Vanderbilt at (6) Tennessee, 2 (ESPNU)
(6) Louisville at (7) Miami (Fla.), 2 (ESPN)
(OUT) Cincinnati at (10) TCU, 2 (TNT/TruTV)
(11) SMU at (OUT) Florida State, 2 (ACCN)
(OUT) Arizona State at (3) Iowa State, 2 (FS1)
(OUT) Stanford at (9) NC State, 2:15 (CW)
Kansas State at (4) Kansas, 2 (CBS)
Princeton at (12) Yale, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Sam Houston at (13) Liberty, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
While the ‘Dores and Vols are trying to stay in the hunt for a top 4 seed and the Cards and ‘Canes are looking to get up to seed line 5, teams like the Mustangs and Wolfpack need victories to hang on. While the Horned Frogs’ stock improved with their win in Lubbock, they need to take care of business against a Bearcats team that’s making a late charge.
Speaking of making a late charge, the Sun Devils’ have a glimmer of hope for an at-large after beating Kansas at home, but that might evaporate with a loss in Ames. Having lost three of four, the Cyclones need to stop their skid that has seen them drop from the final No. 1 seed to a 3.
(6) Wisconsin at (3) Purdue, 4 (CBS)
(2) Florida at (8) Kentucky, 4 (ESPN)
(OUT) New Mexico at (8) Utah State, 4 (MWN)
(8) Georgia at Mississippi State, 3:30 (SECN)
(7) Saint Louis at George Mason, 4 (USA)
(OUT) Boise State at (OUT) Colorado State, 4 (MWN)
(OUT) California at Wake Forest, 4 (ACCN)
Florida Atlantic at Wichita State, 4 (ESPNU)
The Boilermakers barely survived a trip to Evanston on Wednesday and will be on upset alert for the Badgers’ visit. In the SEC, the Wildcats will look to repeat last Saturday’s performance against Vandy against the outright league champs, who cannot afford the loss if they want to stay in the hunt for a No. 1 seed. In the Mountain West, the Lobos can get back on track for an at-large by winning in Logan.
(5) North Carolina at (1) Duke, 6:30 (ESPN)
(11) Indiana at (10) Ohio State, 5:30 (Fox)
(9) Texas A&M at LSU, 6 (SECN)
The stakes are simple in Durham, where the Blue Devils can almost lock down the No. 1 overall seed with a win over a Tar Heel team that’s on the cusp of cracking the 4 line. In Columbus, the Buckeyes have a great opportunity to put themselves well ahead of the Hoosiers in the Big Ten pecking order.
OVC Championship: 9 (ESPN2)
(11) Auburn at (4) Alabama, 8:30 (ESPN)
(OUT) Oklahoma at (11) Texas, 8:30 (SECN)
(9) UCLA at (OUT) USC, 9 (FS1)
(13) Utah Valley at Utah Tech, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
UC Davis at (14) UC Irvine, 8 (ESPNU)
Fresno State at (OUT) Grand Canyon, 8 (MWN)
Cal State Fullerton at CSUN, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
UC San Diego at UC Santa Barbara, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
While the first auto bid of the season will be handed out in Evansville, the Cut Line takes center stage in the SEC and Big Ten. The Tigers will be out again with a loss in Tuscaloosa, and the Tide are likely to drop out of the top 16 with a loss. The Longhorns have dropped to the final bye after dropping three of four, while the Sooners’ late three-game win streak has pushed them back into the conversation. In the Crosstown Showdown, the Trojans desperately need a win to shore up their credentials after dropping six straight. The Bruins, on the other hand, will look to build off their big win over Nebraska on Tuesday night.
(4) Texas Tech at (6) BYU, 10:30 (ESPN)
(1) Arizona at (OUT) Colorado, 11 (ESPN2)
Air Force at (OUT) Nevada, 10 (NSN/MWN)
Long Beach State at Hawai’i. 12 a.m. (Spectrum Sports Hawai’i/ESPN+ ($))
Both the Red Raiders and Cougars need a win for different reasons—Tech to get back on the 3 line and BYU to avoid dropping into a 7/10 or 8/9 game. The Cougars’ good early results won’t save them forever.
Sunday
MVC Championship: 12 (CBS)
Big South Championship: 12 (ESPN2)
ASUN Championship: 2 (ESPN2)
Summit League Championship: 9 (CBSSN)
Patriot League Semifinals: 12 and 2 (CBSSN)
CAA Quarterfinals: 12, 2:30*, 6, and 8:30* (FloHoops ($))
Horizon League Second Round: 3:30 (ESPN+ ($))
SoCon Semifinals: 4 and 6:30* (ESPNU)
MAAC Semifinals: 6 and 8:30* (ESPN+ ($))
Sun Belt Semifinals: 6 and 8:30* (ESPN+ ($))
Southland First Round: 6 and 8:30* (ESPN+ ($))
Big Sky Quarterfinals (Night 1): 7:30 and 10* (Scripps Sports Montana/ESPN+ ($))
WCC Quarterfinals: 8:30 and 11* (ESPN2)
Four more bids are up for grabs on Sunday. Note the earlier start time for the Arch Madness final.
(2) Michigan State at (1) Michigan, 4:30 (CBS)
(2) Illinois at Maryland, 3 (Fox)
Charlotte at (11) South Florida, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Temple at (OUT) Tulsa, 3 (ESPN+ ($))
Memphis at Tulane, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
UTSA at Rice, 3 (ESPN+ ($))
The regular season ends in Ann Arbor, where the Wolverines will look to remain in the hunt for the No. 1 overall seed, while the Spartans are a contender to be No. 4 overall (with losses by UConn, Florida, and Houston).
The American regular season ends with the field for the 10-team conference tournament yet to be settled. While UTSA has locked up 13th place and is out, 7-10 Memphis is only a game up on 6-11 Rice and East Carolina. One of those teams will make the field, and the others will miss out.
My next update will come on Monday, with daily updates to follow for the final week.
