2025 stats: 1.50 ERA, 4.61 xERA, 268 ERA+, 1.467 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 6.0 BB/9 over 30 IP (36 G)
At 6’5’’ and 270 pounds, subtleties aren’t really a strong suit for Erik Miller.
His four-seam fastball averaged 97MPH in 2024 and he threw it half of the time he was on the mound. Against same-side bats over his rookie year, he stayed heavy on the gas and coupled it with a wipeout slider that boasted crazy glove-side run. Facing righties, he served up equal portions of the heater and change-up with a healthy
vertical drop. A classic two-pitch tango. And for a pitcher of Miller’s make, some things aren’t worth over-thinking. Be big, throw the ball hard. Oftentimes he was dominant; and other times he was a walking headache. If he took the mound, he was either going to strike a batter out, or spend his three-hitter minimum trying to locate the zone as fans and coaching staff alike covered their eyes and groaned.
So going into the 2025 season, there was plenty for Miller to work on. Adjustments needed to be made to stay relevant, to improve — but for a young, self-conscious pitcher, that can be a slippery slope. You don’t want to just turn knobs and press buttons just to look busy. A pitcher shouldn’t tinker for tinkerin’ sake. To my eyes, Miller’s problems were less about stuff, and more about mentality.
But oof, changing one’s mindset?? Much easier to learn a new type of fastball, which is exactly what Miller did, adding a sinker to his four-seam heavy mix. Surprisingly, it became a huge piece of his approach to hitters. He ended up using the sinker more against lefties than his four-seamer — and the shift was a lateral move at best. The sinker was fine, but there was a noticeable back-slide in his straight-shootin’ fastballs effectiveness. It had less rise, elicited less whiff, while its K-rate (31% to 9%) and Put-Away percentages (20% to 7%) plummeted. The increased balls in play helped opposing hitters’ expected batting average climb from .182 to .289, and the slugging percentage from .291 to .496.
There were other tinkerings too. Miller threw his change-up a couple of clicks quicker, and coupled with a lower arm slot, resulted in less drop and more run on the movement. The changes produced nothing significantly different in terms of run value. That was not the story of his slider — which proved to be the best pitch in his arsenal after it being his worst in 2024. He gassed that one up too, which helped hem in the glove-side run. Opponents’ slugging fell from .415 against the pitch to .143. The already solid Whiff-rate of 38% shot up to 63%.
In general, Miller improved by fetching more chase from hitters overall. He managed count advantage by vastly improving his first-pitch strike percentage from a coin flip to 66%. But significant strides forward in certain categories appear undermined, or even contrary, to others. His 268 ERA+ comes off more as a miscalculation. I’m not sure how to explain his 1.6 bWAR accrued over just 30 innings pitched, which is higher than Justin Verlander’s season mark and 0.1 bWAR shy of Tyler Rogers’ who pitched 20 more innings. His 1.50 ERA is obviously excellent as well and was much improved from last year’s 3.88, but that belies the expected-ERA’s rise from 3.14 to 4.61. While one would think if an xERA goes up, a pitcher’s quality of contact metrics like hard-hit and barrel rate would also — but Miller did a better job in 2025 of limiting damaging contact than before. What hurt him was the drastic drop in his strikeouts. His K-rate nearly halved from 31% to 17% over his 30 innings pitched.
While opponents put the ball in play more against Miller in 2025, and reached base more often, the results were less damaging. Of the 24 hits he allowed last year, only five of them — just five doubles — went for extra bases. Limiting power is always a positive for a pitcher, though I’m not sure Miller’s value for the Giants lies in effectively pitching to contact. If he’s to establish himself in high-leverage situations, Miller needs to regain some of his strikeout form in 2026 and really, really, cut-down on the walks.
A lot of these results from 2025 need to be taken with a large pinch of salt considering Miller managed only half of a season’s workload thanks to a UCL sprain suffered in his throwing elbow in early July.
He was placed on the 15-day IL on July 5th, hoping to return in August, but his body wouldn’t cooperate (alas, our mortal vessels). While rehabbing the arm, he experienced more discomfort, which eventually led him being shut down for the rest of the season. It’s entirely possible that some of the ineffectiveness he experienced with his four-seamer could be traced back to his injury.
His last pitch of 2025: a cheeky slider that sent Eugenio Suarez hacking and packing.
A bold pitch to throw to someone with a slightly open stance like that, especially if it’s a power bat like Suarez. By setting the location off the inside corner, it looks like Miller is aiming for Suarez’s front pocket. It’s like he’s handing it to him, and you can tell Suarez is expecting it. His eyes swallowed the ball before it got half-way to the plate before spitting it out half-way up the left-field bleachers. And therein lies the benefit of some of Miller’s tweaks. If this was 2024, out of hand, Suarez might’ve dismissed that pitch as way inside, and he probably would’ve been right. But with a more modest run, Suarez ultimately gets coaxed into flailing at the still impressive vertical drop. The ball just keeps falling, and it sends Suarez spinning.
The Major Leagues is a league of adjustments. Part of the challenge is finding the right balance of tweaks, of understanding what should stay and what needs to go. Clearly, Miller did a lot of things right in 2025. Playing with that slider was one of them…I’m not so sure about the sinker.
