Marquette Golden Eagles (5-6, 0-0 Big East) vs Georgetown Hoyas (7-3, 0-0 Big East)
Date: Wednesday, December 17, 2025
Time: 7:30pm Central
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Marquette Stats Leaders
Points: Chase Ross, 18.6 ppg
Rebounds: Ben Gold, 7.0 rpg
Assists: Sean Jones, 4.6 apg
Georgetown Stats Leaders
Points: KJ Lewis,
15.6 ppg Rebounds: KJ Lewis & “Not That” Caleb Williams, 5.9 rpg Assists: Malik Mack, 4.5 apg
KenPom.com Rankings
Marquette: #98
Georgetown: #103
Game Projection: Marquette has a 65% chance of victory, with a predicted score of 77-73.
This Season So Far: Georgetown appeared to be on a positive trend as the campaign got going. They started out 5-0, beating Maryland on the road by 10, then beating Clemson at home by five. That was moving their KenPom.com rankings in a generally positive manner, right up until they went to Disney World for their Feast Week event. Down at the Wide World of Sports, the Hoyas lost in overtime to Dayton and then fell by 13 to Miami, neither of which is a bad loss, but it did take the wind out of their sails.
That doesn’t seem to be a metaphor, by the way. Their next game? A nine point home win over UMBC, which was generated by a 17-0 run early in the second half. The Hoyas were only up four when that run started and then got outscored 40-28 the rest of the way. After that, they went off to Chapel Hill and got pantsed by 20, giving up runs of 12-2 and 11-1 to North Carolina in the second half after only being down five at halftime. The Tar Heels held Georgetown scoreless for the final four minutes of the game, although it’s not like it was close at that point.
That brings us to this past Saturday, when Georgetown hosted Saint Peter’s, which came in ranked in the 300s in KenPom and took a 77-50 loss to Seton Hall in their season opener. The Hoyas were up 20-8 after less than nine minutes…. but only up seven, 31-24, at the half, and the Peacocks scored first after the break. Still, it was 55-44 as the clock went past the five minute mark…. but Hoyas by 8 with four to play…. by 7 with three to play…. by four with two to play….. okay, up six with one minute left, it’ll be fine, right?
Nope.
Turnovers and immediate fouls by KJ Lewis and Malik Mack sent SPU’s Bryce Eaton to the free throw line four times in the final 40 seconds to tie the game at 60, and then Saint Peter’s had a chance to win it with 20 seconds left after another turnover by Mack.
Georgetown scored the first seven points of the extra session and won by eight… but also they had a turnover by Isaiah Abraham with just over two minutes left while up five, so if the ensuing possession goes differently….. who knows what happens.
Tempo Free Fun: As simple as it sounds, this game is going to be determined by who can score buckets.
Marquette comes into Wednesday at #263 in the country in effective field goal percentage according to KenPom.com, while Georgetown is at #240. Sources close to a calculator tell Anonymous Eagle that those are both bottom half of the country rankings, and the Golden Eagles are actually in the bottom third of the country since that’s anywhere south of 243. Both teams are shooting under 31% from behind the three-point line, with Georgetown really clanking it at just 29%. Marquette is actually under 50% from inside the arc, just barely, at 49.8%, and when you consider the fact that the Shaka Smart/Nevada Smith offense is “dunks/layups & threes and nothing else,” that’s a real indictment of the Golden Eagles’ ability to finish at the rim this season.
Anyway, the point is: Whichever team suddenly realizes “oh, right, ball go up and over orange circle, then down thru open mesh” will have a notable advantage in this game. Marquette’s problem when it comes to gaining an edge in that department comes by way of the Hoyas’ eFG% defense being much better than theirs. Georgetown is just outside the top 100 on KenPom in effective field goal defense, and they’re pretty darn good at defending two-pointers. Part of that interior defense is the mere existence of 7-footer Julius Halaifonua, who is #250 in the country in block rate and he’s swatted at least one shot in each of Georgetown’s last five games. Perhaps Ben Gold has a scouting report on Halaifonua, as both men hail from New Zealand.
Marquette has an edge in overall defensive efficiency, but it might be hard for the Golden Eagles to gain that edge in this game. With everything else going sideways on MU this season, it’s nice to see that the Shaka Smart model of cause dysfunction is still working mostly right. The Golden Eagles are forcing a turnover on over 20% of possessions and rank #39 in the country in that regard. Nigel James, Chase Ross, and Adrien Stevens are all in the top 300 in the country in steal rate right now, and both Tre Norman and Sean Jones would be in there as well if they had the minutes to qualify. The catch is that Georgetown doesn’t turn the ball over. The Hoyas are #2 in the country in a lack of miscues this season, coughing it up just 12.5% of the time.
[ASIDE: That’s bad news for Marquette not just here, but down the road….. because Xavier is #1 at 12.4%. That’s a problem for next month.]
The good-adjacent news for MU is that the two guys with the highest usage rates on the roster — Malik Mack & KJ Lewis — have the highest turnover rates. They’re not bad, they’re just the ones most likely to cough it up. Yes, there’s a certain amount of “the turnovers are making their usage rates go up!” but if I saw a 14.6% or a 16.9% on Marquette’s KenPom page — and I do, hi, Chase Ross at 14.7% — then I wouldn’t exactly worry about that guy. Still, I can’t help but notice that the two guys are might be most prone to problems are the guys who nearly coughed away the Saint Peter’s game late with turnovers.
I also can’t help but notice Malik Mack’s six turnovers in Milwaukee last year, just like I can’t help but notice that the Dayton and Miami games are two of GU’s three worst turnover games of the season….. and the Saint Peter’s game is the worst.
One more thing to note: Shaka Smart has mentioned a couple of times this season that this team needs to do whatever it takes to manufacture points, which includes taking advantage of getting to the free throw line as much as they can. Evidence suggests that the Hoyas will be willing partners in this endeavor, as they are currently #303 in defensive free throw attempt rate. There’s not really a tangible connection between “Georgetown gives up lots of free throws” and “Georgetown loses” this season, so we can’t say that’s a runaway method to beat them…. but also it does get a little easier to beat a team when you can score with the clock stopped…. and if the Hoyas get into a touch of foul trouble, that could make things a touch easier to score at the rim, something where MU definitely needs all the help they can get.
Marquette Last 10 Games: 4-6, with losses in their last two and three of the last four.
Georgetown Last 10 Games: 7-3, with all three losses coming in the last five games.
All-Time Series: Marquette leads, 25-14
Current Streak: Last year’s season sweep gave Marquette eight straight victories against Georgetown. That extends out to 11 of the last 12 and 14 of the last 16.
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