We have been doing this for a few years now: looking at the top free agents, using the contract Ben Clemens suggests he’ll get, and asking whether you would like the Jays to give him that contract. This year, the lockout makes it a little more complicated. Keith Law’s list is here. Ben Clemens’is here.
Number 5 on Ben Clemens list and number 2 on Keith Law’s is Teruaki Sato.
The Jays are said to be talking to him, thinking that he could play outfield.
He is a 27-year-old (28 in early March), left-handed
hitter. Last year, for the Hanshin Tigers, he hit .306/.383/.609 with 39 home runs, 68 walks, and 164 strikeouts. He’s had six seasons in the NPB, playing 803 games, with a .273/.338/.516, with 167 home runs.
Law said:
Sato is the best player coming over from NPB this winter and might be the best position-player free agent on the market, period. Playing in a pitcher-friendly stadium in Koshien, Sato hit 79 homers the past two seasons and heads to the posting system off a .306/.383/.609 season, where he also hit 40 doubles and walked more than 10 percent of the time, finishing third in the Central League with 68 walks. It’s easily plus power, earning comparisons to that of Munetaka Murakami, who offered a little more power but less of a hit tool than Sato has. Sato does strike out quite a bit, with a 26.7 percent rate last year, and he had the highest swinging-strike rate of any qualifying NPB hitter. Scouts I’ve asked say his approach is better than the raw data would indicate, that he’s swinging harder and more often to try to do damage, since that’s the expectation given where he’s hit in the lineup and since his home park is unfriendly to power. At the very least, he’d benefit from simply swinging less, in or out of zone.
Clemens said:
Defensively, Sato is below average, both at third base and in right field. Some teams likely see him as a first baseman, but he might also be more of a rotating corner guy whose defense you accept in exchange for some homers. Between that and the contact question, I wouldn’t be comfortable relying on Sato as a difference-maker for a likely playoff team; there are just too many fail cases. But there are a lot of boom cases as well. If he’s acceptable at third and the power plays, “perennial All-Star” is well within the realm of possibility. That makes me think an ascendant team looking to bank a little bit of spending and gamble a bit on a good outcome will sign Sato, much like the White Sox did with Murakami last year. Sato has the tools to be an impact player, and he’s so young that if he’s good next year, he’ll likely be good for a while. That seems like a good deal to me overall, even if every team won’t be interested.
Clemens figures he will get a 5-year contract at $22 million a year for a total of $110 million. I think he’s a fair bit low on the yearly amount.
