First let’s deal with the elephant in the room on this week’s rankings. The Green Bay Packers are basically flat, and actually slightly down, despite an impressive win in Pittsburgh that has the league discussing Tucker Kraft as the best tight end in the game and Jordan Love as an MVP candidate. So how does that happen?
This is partially because according to CALCULATOR, the Packers were already good. So although winning did boost many of their underlying metrics – DVOA, EPA, PFF grade, point differential
all improved – there’s not that much room for the Packers to move up. Plus, while all of their efficiency metrics improved, their odds of winning the Super Bowl actually went DOWN, from +700 to +750.
Now, why did that happen? Kansas City stayed flat as the odds-on favorite at +500, but Detroit shot past Green Bay from +800 to +700, even though they didn’t play! It’s not a big change and the Packers and Lions are still the two favorites in the NFC, but it was just enough to essentially cancel out the Packers’ other underlying gains.
It might seem bizarre that a team on a bye could surpass a team that put up a huge victory, and it honestly kind of is. It’s not like we gained any insight into future strength of schedule for either team. Cam Skattebo was seriously hurt, but both the Lions and Packers face the Giants. Both face the Vikings and Bears twice. Both face the Eagles. Perhaps you could ding the Packers a bit for their late season game against a rapidly improving Ravens team, but Detroit doesn’t exactly face a cakewalk, with games against the very good Rams and a Cowboys squad that’s terrible on defense, yes, but exceptional on offense. Let’s chalk this up to noise. As John Maynard Keynes once said, “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
As for your big movers and shakers, we all now firmly believe in Indianapolis as they move up seven points into the elite 100 tier with the Chiefs, Lions, Packers, and Rams. Yes, it was just a victory over the Titans, but the Colts aren’t just winning close; they are destroying weaker competition. Their offensive line is elite, Jonathan Taylor is having a career year with 850 yards on the ground and 12 touchdowns to date, and the only tight end who might be better than Tucker Kraft is Tyler Warren.
I was not able to include the Thursday Night Football game in week 9 yet, but keep an eye on Baltimore. The Ravens were beaten to heck, played a brutal schedule, and kept finding ways to lose close games, but nothing gets you healthy like consecutive games against the Bears and Dolphins. Now they are only 1.5 games back of Pittsburgh in the AFC North, they have the Vikings, Jets, Bengals (x2), and Browns down the stretch, and Lamar is healthy. They’re up seven points this week before incorporating Thursday’s win, which should push them into the top half.
Our big fallers include the Cowboys, who were stymied by an elite Denver defense but more importantly, couldn’t do anything to stop a pathetic Denver offense. They dropped almost eight points. And the Packers’ opponents next week, the Carolina Panthers, dropped six points down into the 40s as they were blown out and beaten up by the Buffalo Bills under injured backup quarterback Andy Dalton. They likely have Bryce Young back this week, but it is no sure thing.
But the biggest fallers were the schizophrenic Atlanta Falcons, who lost to the Dolphins(!) with Michael Penix injured and Kirk Cousins forced to play. Woof. They fell by more than eight points, and while you could and should blame most of that loss on the quarterback, I would like to point one thing out. Despite employing a terrifying running attack featuring Bijan Robinson, the Falcons have the lowest play action rate in the NFL, which is dumb.
And here are the rest of your CALCULATOR rankings:
