My friend Trevor joined my firm in 2020, in the midst of the pandemic. When he was hired, the head of his department sent me a note saying “Hey Lee, I got you a basketball player!” It turns out that Trevor played
D-1 ball at Farleigh Dickinson, started most games as a sophomore and started every game in his junior and senior years. Second-team all conference and team captain. (All this information came from the team’s website, not from Trevor.) So yes, the head of Trevor’s department really “got me a basketball player.”
Trevor became the first D-1 hooper at the firm since Bob Bennett, who started at forward (opposite Billy Cunningham) on Dean Smith’s first North Carolina team. This is how long ago that was: Bob was drafted by the Knicks out of college but decided to instead go to law school because being a lawyer was more lucrative than playing in the NBA (in the 1960s). After a very successful career as a probate litigator and all around good guy, Bob is now retired. When he retired, Bob moved from L.A. to … just outside San Antonio. Go Spurs.
Back to Trevor. I immediately reached out to him when he joined the firm. We then met at an outdoor basketball court – the best we could do during the lockdown. Because he was hired over Zoom, as many were in 2020, I was the first person at the firm to meet Trevor in person. We competed in the various shooting contests I had invented during the pandemic, as recounted here. One of those contests I call “Most in a Row.” I knew I was in trouble when Trevor made 26 jumpers in a row from about 16 feet out in the right wing. Yes, 26 consecutive mid-range jumpers. (He won that contest.)
We later competed in other sports, including golf. When we were golfing last weekend, Trevor asked me when I would be doing my Western Conference over and under predictions – he said he always enjoyed them. Upon learning that at least one person enjoys these predictions, here they are.
A few preliminary thoughts. I have traditionally tried to have an even balance between the number of teams I predict to exceed their projections and those I predict won’t. However, that balance is only necessary in a closed system, which the Western Conference is not – the teams also get to play teams in the Eastern Conference. This season in particular, it is certainly possible that more Western Conference teams exceed expectations because they get to play a bunch of games against the East.
Also, I try not to focus on whether a particular team is “good” or “bad.” The question is whether that team will be “gooder” or “badder” than the Las Vegas consensus.
Finally, please do not take these predictions to run out and place bets with Fan Duel or any other betting platform you may use. While I cannot guarantee the accuracy of my predictions, I can guarantee that relying on them is a bad idea. Certainly don’t expect me to be right 26 times in a row like Trevor was from the right wing, 16 feet out.
With those disclaimers out of the way, these are my preseason predictions as to which Western Conference teams will and won’t exceed the win total the folks in Vegas have projected for them. I hope you enjoy this as much as Trevor has in the past.
Let’s start at the top, based on the 2024-2025 regular season.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last season’s wins: 68
Vegas over/under: 62.5
OKC’s 2024-25 regular season was one for the ages. The Thunder outscored opponents by 12.9 points per game, breaking the record set by the 1971-72 Lakers, who went 69-13 and won it all. Put another way, the Thunder’s win total last season might have been a bit low based on their point differential. And they have everyone back from last season. Their top eight players in minutes per game were all 26 or younger. Their third best player, Chet Holmgren, played in only 32 games. Nonetheless, Vegas has them winning 5.5 games less this season. Sorry, I just don’t see it. While the Thunder might not win 68 games again, they just might – and even if they don’t, the Thunder will probably come close. OVER
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Last season’s wins: 52
Vegas over/under: 55.5
The Rockets surprised a lot of people by finishing second in the West last season, but six teams finished within four wins of the Rockets’ 52 wins. Two of these teams wound up in the Play-In Tourney. Three of the top Rockets in minutes per game last year won’t play for this season’s team: Fred VanFleet just suffered a season-ending ACL injury, while Jaylen Green and Dillon Brooks were traded. Of course, the guy those two were traded for is why Vegas projects that the Rockets will win three more games this year: Kevin Durant. As a second “of course,” KD is 37 years old – or, as announcers like to say, 37 years of age. (Anyone else notice that?) KD has a million miles on his skinny legs (stats not official). While I expect KD to be excellent again, I don’t expect him to play 60 games. With KD likely to miss a bunch of games and VanFleet out for the season, the Rockets seem unlikely to have enough point-guard play and three-point shooting to win more games than the 52 they won last season, let alone the 56 wins needed to be an “over.” UNDER
Los Angeles Lakers
Last season’s wins: 50
Vegas over/under: 47.5
OK, let me get this straight. The Lakers replaced Jaxon Hayes with Deandre Ayton, they will have Luca Doncic for the entire season – and Luca lost 20 pounds of baby fat from the guy who averaged 28/8/8 while fat – and they still have Lebron James. The Lakers went 18-10 with Luca on the team. And Vegas has them 2.5 games worse. Even though the Lakers will not have a plus defender in their starting line-up, I still see them matching last year’s record. That makes the Lakers an OVER.
Denver Nuggets
Last season’s wins: 50
Vegas over/under: 53.5
My previous analysis of the Nuggets’ off-season still applies: “The Nuggets pulled off the equivalent of a three for one deal. They shipped the enigmatic (and overpaid) Michael Porter, Jr. for a guy who is probably as good as him and is certainly cheaper – Cam Johnson. So you don’t have to look it up, MPJ averaged 18-7-2 while shooting 40% from three. Johnson averaged 19-4-3 for the Nets, and shot 39% from three (without Joker dropping dimes to him). . . . The money the Nuggets saved from that trade allowed them to bring back Bruce Brown, a crucial component of the Nuggets’ championship team. They also traded the player who used to be Dario Saric for an actual back-up center in Jonas Valanciunas.” Not mentioned in that summary was the Nuggets’ pick-up of solid veteran Tim Hardaway, Jr. The Nuggets took OKC to seven games, even with all the warts on last season’s team – including Aaron Gordon straining a hamstring in Game Six. Another OVER.
Los Angeles Clippers
Last season’s wins: 50
Vegas over/under: 48.5
Like the Nuggets, the Clippers pulled off the equivalent of a three for one deal during the off-season, giving up Norman Powell, getting Bradley Beal, a Lopez brother, and John Collins. Previously I wrote: ”I don’t expect to see any drop-off for the Clippers this season, and they have a realistic shot at being better.”
But I wrote that before Kawhi-gate. While I don’t expect the NBA to void Kawhi’s contract, the league could certainly suspend him for significant time. The Clippers might not mind that result if Kawhi is fresher for the playoffs. But that possibility allows me to adjust my previous regular season prediction to UNDER. This also allows me to continue to root against the Clippers, a hallowed family tradition. I look forward to the emails from my friends who are Clippers fans calling me a hater. Bring it on! UNDER, UNDER, UNDER
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last season’s wins: 49
Vegas over/under: 50.5
The Vegas projection of an improved win total for the T’Wolves surprised me. The only significant change from last season was the loss of valuable rotation wing Nickeil Alexander-Walker. While Anthony Edwards may show some improvement (he is already great), Michael Conley and Rudy Gobert are likely to fade a bit. (Gobert will not repeat as Defensive Player of the Year because, well, you know.) I don’t see the T’Wolves improving on last season’s win total, which makes them an UNDER.
Golden State Warriors
Last season’s wins: 48
Vegas over/under: 45.5
While the Vegas projection for Minnesota surprised me for being high, I feel the opposite about the Warriors’ projection. The team went 30-11 after picking up Jimmy Butler in the middle of last season. If you do the math (and even if you don’t), that projects to a 60 win pace for an entire season. It also seems like the Jonathan Kuminga situation worked out OK for everyone with the compromise two-year deal for lots of money. If the mid-30’s threesome of Draymond, Steph, and Jimmy stay relatively healthy, the Warriors might actually be quite good. I have the W’s as a strong OVER.
Memphis Grizzlies
Last season’s wins: 48
Vegas over/under: 40.5
Another team that got worse over the summer. The Grizzlies traded key starter Desmond Bane for a bunch of future draft picks. If I understand how future draft picks work, the Grizzlies won’t be able to play any of them this season, which is presumably why Vegas projects a 7.5 win drop-off this season. But that is still essentially a .500 record, which is optimistic in the improved Western Conference. More importantly, are there any Grizzly Bears in Tennessee? Memphis should change the team name to the Blues. Unless they do, UNDER.
Sacramento Kings
Last season’s wins: 40
Vegas over/under: 35.5
As the big off-season move to make the Kings relevant again, they signed Dennis Schroeder to a large three-year contract. Uh, OK. Just for the fun of it, I asked AI about the Kings’ off-season, and was told this: “The Kings are considered a prime destination for free agent Russell Westbrook, but a logjam at guard and a need to resolve contracts for players like Malik Monk or Devin Carter may need to be addressed first.” I guess that is why they call it “artificial” intelligence. Yeah, UNDER.
Of course, the Kings might just get rid of Monk and Carter in order to sign Westbrook. If that happens: WAY UNDER
Dallas Mavericks
Last season’s wins: 39
Vegas over/under: 39.5
The Mavs are the one team that last season’s wins don’t tell us much about what to expect from this season. Vegas then goes out and projects that the Mavs will have the same number of wins as they had last year. Last year, the Mavs had heavy Luca, traded him for Frequently Injured Anthony Davis, who immediately got injured. I heard from one of my basketball buddies that FI-AD then did the reverse Luca diet, putting on 20 pounds. ”All muscle?” I asked. Basketball buddy: ”Nope.” The Mavs also totally lucked into Cooper Flagg, and Kyrie Irving may return around the All-Star break to completely disrupt whatever offense the Mavs had been running before Kyrie’s return. Maybe Vegas just punted on this prediction and said “Hell, we don’t know. What did they win last year?” I will do the same. Because 39 is less than 39.5: UNDER
Phoenix Suns
Last season’s wins: 36
Vegas over/under: 31.5
With their dynamic trio of KD, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal, the 2024-25 Suns were a popular sleeper pick. The pundits (SAT word!) were partially correct. The Suns sleep-walked through the season, fired their coach for the fourth time in four years, traded away KD, and bought out Beal. In the KD trade, they picked up players who play the same position as Booker, their remaining star, who may be traded as part of this wacky rebuild. The Suns hope to be boring, because the alternative is being terrible. Being good is not one of the available options. UNDER
Portland Trail Blazers
Last season’s wins: 36
Vegas over/under: 34.5
The Blazers added two of my favorite players, bringing back franchise icon Damian Lillard and trading for great teammate Jrue Holiday. Unfortunately, Dame is out for the season, and Holiday is fading as a player (though not as a teammate). The Blazers also dumped lousy teammate Deandre Ayton, meaning that their locker room should be a better place. Unfortunately for the team from my birthplace, the locker room is not where the basketball games are played. So while the Blazers can hope that their young players continue to improve, the Western Conference is a tough place to learn on the job without enough talent to meaningfully improve. Although the Blazers could improve, I would not bet any money on it (or anything else). I will also not predict anything other than UNDER.
San Antonio Spurs
Last season’s wins: 34
Vegas over/under: 43.5
I had forgotten that last season’s Spurs beat out only two Western Conference teams – the Jazz and the Pelicans. Losing your best player in February has a tendency to hurt a team’s win total. Because that player is back, and very good, and for other reasons everyone reading this knows about, Vegas has projected the Spurs to improve more in 2025-26 than every other team except one (a team which we have not yet mentioned). Who am I to disagree? I am also contractually obligated to say OVER, and I know better than to breach my contract before “the powers that be” decide on my Christmas bonus. OVER, OVER, OVER
New Orleans Pelicans
Last season’s wins: 21
Vegas over/under: 30.5
Remember when the Pelicans’ organization was the envy of the NBA? Me neither. However, I do remember when many of us thought that this was a team on a clear upward path, led by Zion Williamson and a bunch of talented young players. Well, Zion “led” the Pelicans to 21 wins last year. Zion played only 30 games all season, while ex-Spur Dejounte Murray played in only one more game than Zion. The Pelicans had only two players who played in more than 56 games, and I bet you cannot name them. If you have even heard of them, good for you. Yves Missi (not related to Lionel Messi) played in 73 games, averaging 9.1 PPG. A guy named Jeremiah Robinson-Earl played in 66 games, averaging 6.3 ppg. And people say I don’t do any research before writing these. The Pelicans should be healthier this year, though that is a very low bar. Will improved health lead to an improvement by more than 9 wins? UNDER
Utah Jazz
Last season’s wins: 17
Vegas over/under: 18.5
Vegas has big hopes for Utah. BIG HOPES. How big? One or two more wins, even though it is difficult to only win 17 or 18 games with an 82 game schedule – 41 of which are home games. If the Jazz lose every road game, they only need to go 17- 24 at home to match last year’s win total. And some of those road games will be against Eastern Conference teams. The Jazz have to send their 2026 first-round pick to the Thunder if the pick lands outside the top eight. If it lands inside the top eight, Utah will keep that first-rounder and would no longer owe Oklahoma City any draft pick. I am not a draft lottery expert, but I am pretty sure that teams with a projected record like the Jazz cannot fall out of the top eight picks, no matter what happens with the ping-pong balls. If the Jazz start playing well, Danny Ainge will put the kibosh on that. The Jazz will get their pick, but I still think they will be OVER 18.5 wins. But barely.
I just counted my predictions. Six over, nine under. No way that will be right.
Trevor, I hope you enjoyed this!
