It’s been a weird week for Oregon State basketball.
Earlier in the week, athletic director Scott Barnes informed head coach–and Ferris High School graduate–Wayne Tinkle that his tenure in Corvallis will end after the season, presenting Tinkle with the choice: either step aside immediately or coach his team through whatever remained of the year. Tinkle chose the latter, which meant Oregon State arrived in Las Vegas for the WCC Tournament Quarterfinals yesterday ready to play out not just the final games
of their season, but of the entire Tinkle Era.
Anyone hoping to walk away from Oregon State’s 78–77 win over the University of San Francisco Dons in Las Vegas with a tidy scouting report probably landed on one clear conclusion: OSU is playing a volatile brand of basketball right now, and everything flows from the three-point line.
But one other element showed up clearly in Vegas: this team is also playing with real emotion and intense motivation to do right by their coach. The players know Wayne Tinkle’s tenure in Corvallis ends with their next loss, and the energy on the floor suggested a group determined to extend the run for as long as possible.
OSU looked flat early and struggled to generate much offensively during the opening stretch. They were held scoreless by USF for the game’s opening six-and-a-half minutes, although the game slowly tilted once guard Dez White found his range. White went four-for-four on threes in the first half, allowing OSU to erase a double-digit deficit and head into halftime trailing by two.
The second half turned into exactly the kind of game Gonzaga fans have seen plenty of during March tournaments: a perimeter shootout where neither defense consistently closed space on shooters and a high volume of wildly improbable shots found their way to the bottom of the net. White kept firing for OSU while USF answered through guards Tyrone Riley and Legend Smiley. The two teams combined to hit 22 three-pointers on the night. The Beavs finished 11-for-24 from deep while the Dons went 11-for-28.
Although OSU built a nine-point lead with under two minutes left to play, they nearly watched it disappear in a frantic final 30 seconds to win by just one point.
The takeaways for Zag fans are minimal. We can say for sure that OSU is leaning heavily on perimeter shooting and riding the emotional surge of trying to extend its coach’s final run. When the threes fall, the Beavs can hang around with anyone, and that kind of momentum has a way of keeping underdogs alive in March.
Keys to the Game
1) Lock down the perimeter
Gonzaga enteres this matchup as the No. 1 seed for a handful of reasons, but perimeter defense is not the most consistent. Zags’ perimeter defense has swung wildly all season. When the rotations stay sharp, Emmanel Innocenti hounds ballhandlers at the point of attack, and our wings run shooters off the line, the defense tightens everywhere else. When the discipline slips, the mistakes show up fast; defenders bite on pump fakes, fouls are committed thirty-five feet from the basket, help defenders collapse too far inside, and opposing shooters drift free for open looks after offensive rebounds.
There have been encouraging signs recently, though. Tyon Grant-Foster has looked far more disciplined defensively over the past few games, and Davis Fogle has improved staying attached to shooters. The entire structure, however, changes when Jalen Warley is healthy, active, and switching on everything. His presence steadies Gonzaga’s perimeter coverage, and against an OSU team leaning heavily on outside shooting, that stability becomes essential.
No word as of yet on his availability after missing the last three matchups nursing a thigh contusion, but what is certain is that the Zags are a more cohesive and efficient defensive unit everywhere when he’s on the floor.
Turn it into a track meet
OSU leaned heavily on its guards to survive Monday night. Dez White and Josiah Lake combined for 36 of Oregon State’s 78 total points. Each chipped in 18 apiece while Lake added seven assists. They were stellar. That being said, both also logged 35 minutes in a tight seven-man rotation. With the Beavs already a little banged up and coming off a back-and-forth game less than 24 hours prior, the turnaround into this matchup favors Gonzaga’s depth and fresh legs.
That creates a clear path for the Zags: speed the game up and run the Beavs off the floor. Active defense that clogs passing lanes coupled with relentless defensive rebounding can spark transition before OSU’s defense sets in the half court. Warley (pending availability), Innocenti, Fogle, and Grant-Foster should be looking to run the floor in transition, and if the guards feel comfortable they should have the green light to fire from outside early in the shot clock. It could also be a good opportunity to lean into the Braeden Smith/Mario Saint Supery pairing that we’ve seen only in flashes this season. Smith’s dribble-drive table setting paired with Mario’s perimeter shooting could help push the pace and keep the Beavs chasing.
Let Ike cook
Graham Ike enters this one playing the best basketball of his career. The reigning WCC Player of the Year and now a top-15 Wooden Award candidate will enter this one rested, locked in, and fully comfortable carrying Gonzaga’s offense when the moment calls for it. He put up a career high 35 points on OSU in Gonzaga’s previous 81-61 win in Corvalis last month.
OSU brings real size in the frontcourt with Jorge Diaz Graham (6’11), Olavi Suutela (6’10), and Noah Amenhauser (7’2), but the numbers from Monday night tell a different story about their interior presence. The trio combined for only nine rebounds against the Dons. The length shows up on paper, although those bigs can be moved off their spots on box-outs and have a tendency to leave their feet around the rim (see below).
This is exactly why Ike was able to carve them up the last time they met. His patience on the block, footwork through contact, and ability to score from multiple angles should create problems for a front line that’s struggled to contain interior scorers at times this season. Gonzaga’s offense runs through him now. Ike earned that role across the season, and tournament basketball offers the stage to show exactly how dominant he can be when the stakes rise.
Respect the moment
The Zags must ensure above all that they maintain focus on this opponent and not simply treat this game as a pre-Saint Mary’s (or Pre-Santa Clara, perhaps) tuneup. This OSU group understands the clock attached to Wayne Tinkle’s tenure, and the effort against the Dons reflected a team determined to stretch that final chapter for as long as possible.
It happens every postseason, and it could very well happen again tonight. Impossible shots start falling. A role player suddenly catches fire. A ten-point deficit evaporates in thirty seconds. Momentum swings arrive in waves and underdogs ride them further than logic suggests they should be able to. The Beavs already showed that capacity against USF, recovering from a sluggish first half to bury the Dons under a barrage of threes and then a gritty final minute of action.
For Gonzaga, the task centers on composure. OSU’s got absolutely nothing to lose and everything to prove. The Zags have to stay organized on both ends of the floor, execute their offense, and avoid getting pulled into the emotional turbulence that often defines tournament games. When things tighten, discipline wins. Cooler heads usually carry the night.
Final Thoughts
As of this writing, there’s still no word on Jalen Warley’s availability. Gonzaga has won games without him before. In his absence, Tyon Grant-Foster brings relentless activity on the glass and constant foul pressure, while Davis Fogle gives the Zags a scoring punch that can stretch the floor off the bench. What neither fully replaces are the small defensive details Warley provides. His versatility, ability to switch, and knack for disrupting possessions have made him one of the most valuable defensive pieces in the conference, and against an OSU frontcourt with legitimate size, his presence would help immensely.
Still, the biggest warning sign has nothing to do with personnel. The Beavs just survived a chaotic, high-variance game built on hot perimeter shooting, and that is exactly the kind of formula that keeps underdogs alive in March. This is not a team Gonzaga can treat as a stepping stone to the WCC Championship rematch game that everyone in Spokane wants. The Beavs are playing loose, playing for their coach, and playing with the confidence that comes from a wild, gutsy win.
Although the Big Dance has yet to commence, March has a way of rewarding teams that hang around. Gonzaga’s job is to stay composed when those moments arrive, execute on both ends, and avoid getting pulled into the chaos. If the Zags stay disciplined, their talent and depth should carry the night. If the game turns into a shootout, OSU will gladly take that trade.
