We’ve been doing this for several years now. We reviewed some of the top free agents, as rated by Keith Law in The Athletic and Ben Clemens at FanGraphs, using the contracts FanGraphs suggests they will receive, and asked if we should sign them.
I’m skipping a few to get to Edwin Diaz, because, when I woke up this morning there was a notification on my phone saying the Jays were trying to convince Diaz to leave the Mets and join the Jays, linking to a Ken Rosenthal post.
In that post:
…speaking to reporters
Thursday night at the MLB Awards in Las Vegas, where he won the Trevor Hoffman Award for National League Reliever of the Year, Díaz said his chances of returning to the Mets were “50-50.”
Díaz, who turns 32 in March, wants the same kind of deal he signed with the Mets in November 2022, according to a person briefed on his wishes – five years, $102 million. He opted out of the final two years and $38 million in the deal, and is certain to turn down the Mets’ one-year, $22.025 million qualifying offer.
Keith Law had Diaz at #22 on his list of free agents. Ben Clemens #10.
Diaz is 31, will be 32 by the start of the 2026 season. This season Diaz had a 1.63 ERA, with 28 saves (with just two blown saves, both of which became wins for the Mets). Batters hit .164/.258/.244 against him (similar, but slightly better numbers than in 2024).
If the Jays signed Diaz, Jeff Hoffman would move into the 8th inning setup role.
Keith Law said:
Díaz will head to free agency after declining the two-year, $37 million player option in the huge contract the Mets gave him after the 2022 season. The 2025 season was his best since he signed the last deal and one of the best of his career, with a strikeout rate of 38 percent that was the second-best among MLB relievers last year, behind only Mason Miller. His velocity has been down since he missed the 2023 season, dropping from 99.1 mph in 2022 to 97.2 mph last year, with a similar drop on his slider, but both pitches remain plus with high whiff rates. The fastball gets tremendous run, and the slider is short but very deceptive, and even with a higher hard-hit rate last year (39.7 percent, his highest since 2019), he was still very effective because he missed more than enough bats. His only significant injury was as big a fluke as it gets, when he blew out his knee in a celebration during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and perhaps that year off from pitching had a silver lining in giving his shoulder and elbow a break. I am skeptical of any reliever going into their 30s, and if Díaz loses any more stuff, in any dimension, he’s going to be a lot less effective in a big hurry. He’ll get way too long a contract, as the market continues to do with all capital-C Closers, even with the dismal history of four- and five-year deals for relievers.
Ben Clemens said:
Díaz stands out from the crowd of relievers hitting the market this winter. He’s one of the best closers in the game, and he’s still at his peak; this season was the third time he’s eclipsed 60 innings with an ERA below 2.00. If you want to lock down your bullpen, Díaz is the best option for 2026 – and probably for 2027 and 2028, too, which is going to make him very attractive to every GM who thinks their team’s window is open for the next few years. He’s even been remarkably durable; the only extended absence of his career came courtesy of a fluke injury in the WBC that cost him the entire 2023 season.
Ben thinks Diaz will receive a 3-year contract worth $25 million per year, totaling $75 million. I’d take the over if I was betting, but let’s go with that for this exercise.
