Monday night begins the McNamERA for Syracuse Men’s Basketball. After five seasons of watching the Big Dance, can the Orange give us some March Madness in 2027?
Kevin: 19-13, 9-9 NCAA 1st Round
I am thinking the Orange do enough to sneak in the Field of 76 because I think this team will be able to make a final push in the last seven games of the ACC regular season. I’m basing this on the defensive potential of this group and the hope that the coaching staff will lean on more pressure in that final stretch
to get this team over the hump.
Concerns about the offense and rebounding have me hesitant to predict a 20-win season or more than a 1-4 record in the non-conference P5 games. I’m also going to go on record that I am terrified that McNamara is going to lean too much on Doty, Goodrick and Moesch because of their effort and his desire to build a culture. (If that happens, then I think this team falls short of a tournament bid).
Maybe I’m just being wishful here, but in the end, the team squeaks in and it’s enough for some fans to call it a good season while others can lament the fact that the Orange only made the NCAA Tournament because of the expanded field.
Sam: 19-13, 9-9, Sweating it out on Selection Sunday
Despite three poor showings in exhibition play, I maintain a level of optimism for Syracuse this season. I just think there is so much that this team can bring on the defensive side of the ball, that on most nights, they’ll only have to score in the 60s to grab a win.
This of course, requires Garwey Dual to settle into a rhythm at the point guard spot, playing smart basketball, so he can avoid the turnovers and fouls that would get him taken out of games. He needs to be the head of the snake defensively. Gavin Doty, Aiden Tobiason, Sadiq White, Amarri Monroe, all can be impactful, multi-positional defenders. If Francis Folefac comes along, there’s another one. That makes the job easier for Luke Wilson or whoever is playing the five spot.
The limiting mistakes factor goes for the rest of the team as well.
Margins will be thin, there will not be a ton of self-creation. This team will create its best offense from its defense – running the floor off of turnovers. We’ll probably see the team take a bunch of bad shots out of necessity. Get used to late clock tough shots from Doty or Tobiason in the mid-range. It’s not ideal, but it’s better than no shot at all. What won’t be okay is bad turnovers or lazy rebounding. Syracuse has to win the shot volume battle, because it won’t be shooting with lights out efficiency. I’m very curious as to how SU manages the minutes for Mark Morano, the team’s best shooter.
I have a baseline level of trust in Gerry McNamara and this coaching staff to get this team to play hard and disciplined, knowing what it needs to do to win games. The poor exhibitions alone won’t change that trust. There are wins out there on the ACC schedule. Outside of the top four, the league is pretty wide-open. But that means it’s not particularly easy to build up an NCAA Tournament resume unless you don’t drop games.
I racked my brain thinking of comps for this team. A no-true-PG, poor outside shooting, set of wing defensive monsters and hoping for some turnovers and isolation scoring to drop out of it. 2025-26 West Virginia came to mind. Although they had Honor Huff’s outside shooting and shot more threes in general than this Syracuse team probably will. But regardless, that team finished 55th in KenPom. If Syracuse does that, I think that’s a solid outcome for year one.
Szuba: 18-14 (9-9), no post-season
Listen, this might not be what fans want to hear but the talent on this roster just isn’t there to compete at a high level with the Power Five teams on this schedule. There are real limitations and results through the first three exhibition games lend more to concern than optimism. Shooting and rebounding could be weaknesses for this team and the overall defense – believed to be a strength coming into this season with size and length – was less than stellar. This team is already dealing with injuries and setbacks before the season begins.
The ACC figures to be top-heavy and might not provide the kind of opportunity to build an NCAA Tournament résumé. Syracuse really needs to win at least two and maybe three of those non-conference games against Power Five teams (Indiana, St. John’s, Oklahoma, Providence, Rutgers). I’m not sure where those wins will come from.
It’s not all bad. If Syracuse is able to crystalize into something more than the sum of its parts it will likely be due to McNamara’s coaching, which elevates the individuals into a cohesive collective. For what Syracuse lacks in high-end talent there is depth and versatility – players complement each other’s strengths and weaknesses.
Guys do seem to genuinely get along this year – an intentional roster building move by the staff. To get to where Syracuse is trying to go the defense would have to flourish with disruptive length and athleticism while the offense (and I do believe McNamara can coach modern offense) manages to be good enough to get over the hump and into the win column. In that regard, three guys strike as key to Syracuse hitting its ceiling: Dual, White and Abramane Siby.
This is a foundational year. I think McNamara can get this team to play hard, buy in, fight for the product and steer the program back in the right direction. There are a lot of headwinds at play for Syracuse and it’s just going to take time for that to materialize into an NCAA Tournament berth, even with an expanded field.
Dom: 17-15, 8-10 (no postseason)
The expanded field complicates this prediction somewhat and will also leave a sour taste for fans. So even with more spots to make the tournament, we can’t?!
I’m a big fan of GMac. In my opinion, a clear upgrade over Adrian Autry, who had great offensive talent and couldn’t get the most out of it. GMac can make more out of less, and while the sample size is small, he did some good work at Siena.
Moving to the roster, outside Tobiason and White, there isn’t really a clear all-ACC candidate unless someone just surprises out of nowhere or takes a massive jump. I like the defensive potential of this squad, and that was also a source of frustration in recent years. There is a lot of depth, which will be used more effectively.
But, the upside concerns me.
If White doesn’t take that leap, Syracuse suddenly becomes pretty thin at the four. The center rotation has optionality, but also potential concerns or a chance of not hitting on any of Goodrick, Wilson, or Siby. This team has some perimeter talent, but many of Syracuse’s opponents still have those great-to-elite centers and frontcourts.
The backcourt positions will be what most defines the season, and not just Tobiason being good. Dual needs to make a two-way impact, Doty and Monroe need to provide consistent offense against tougher competition, and Kiyan needs better production after an up-and-down first season. Can any one of them evolve into an efficient, reliable second or third scorer against ACC-level competition? The jury is still out.
The schedule is also a big worry.
That’s especially with quite a tough non-con schedule that features potentially winnable games against tournament-caliber teams, but no guaranteed victories (and all of them being neutral-site or on the road doesn’t help either). I think a slow start will actually doom the Orange heading into conference play. The ACC’s roster NIL spending (which isn’t everything, but definitely matters) features a mix of very high to very low. Syracuse is essentially in the middle, and if that translates on the court, the Orange can’t afford more than a few slip-ups in conference play. And while ‘Cuse will hopefully be more competitive against the ACC’s best, those are still long-shot wins.
Overall, there’s too much room for error. This team could very well prove me wrong (I hope they do), pull off a couple of impressive non-con wins, be consistent over the course of 2026-27, and get to 20 wins plus the tournament. Man, that would make me feel even better about GMac. But that’s a lot to expect, as James noted quite well, when there’s plenty of obstacles and factors that leave little room for error for Syracuse.
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Now it’s your turn
