This is a purposeful piggyback on my colleague Joel Blank’s post from a couple of days ago. He asked the question, when it is time to pull the plug on Dana Brown and Joe Espada ? I usually don’t write entire essays in response to another article, but Joel asked a serious question and it deserves a serious answer. I can flush out my thoughts better in this format than in a simple reply to the article itself.
There comes a time when you just run out of runway. That time has come for Dana Brown. My normal
course on these little essays is to first admit my own culpability. I was a James Click fan, but I also believed in Jim Crane. Granted, I probably shouldn’t have had faith in the immediate aftermath of an off-season that saw him, Jeff Bagwell, and Reggie Jackson sign Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero. However, this is a guy that had hired Jeff Luhnow, A.J. Hinch, Dusty Baker, and Click.
All of them had been integral to the success of the club up to that point. I certainly had differences with all of them at certain points, but it is hard to argue with the results. So, when Brown was announced I was on board. Based on what we’d heard, he was good at the scouting end and he was going to bring in the philosophy of locking up our young core.
Right or wrong, the results don’t lie. Admittedly, he has been on the job since 2023, so you could argue that it isn’t enough to accurately to judge his efforts to rebuild the farm system. However, only one significant prospect has graduated to the big leagues in Brice Mathews and the results have been mixed at best. He has signed only one significant extension with Cristian Javier and that deal has turned out to be a disaster.
It’s at this point that Brown apologists will stand up and defend him. I’d agree that the efficacy of decisions should not be based on the results. They should be based on the evidence at the time of the decision. However, if every major decision ends up going against you then it becomes difficult to justify keeping you around. Perhaps, any long-term deal for a pitcher is a bad decision in this day and age. Perhaps we should have seen something beforehand. Perhaps there are other issues there we can touch on here.
The decision to move on from Brown sooner rather than later is based on the evidence available and some very real world ramifications. In terms of the evidence, it would be hard to argue that any significant offseason move worked out this year. Obviously, Jim Crane was already teetering towards not retaining him since he did not want to extend him. So, if this season is a referendum on his fitness for the job then it is hard to argue for him to stick around.
The chief problem has been the injuries. This is where the apologists want to defend him. I get it on a certain level. Injuries (on a surface level) seem like an arbitrary thing that can’t be controlled. We can almost imagine God or fate pointing his finger and zapping an Astro with a hamstring injury or an arm injury. Yet, when you stop and really examine that line of thinking, it collapses under careful scrutiny. The Astros have been among the most injured or THE most injured roster three years in a row.
I suppose there is always a chance that is just lightning striking the same team three times in a row. The more likely explanation is that there is something going wrong. It could be in the player evaluation process. Maybe the Astros select more injury prone players that are destined to break down. It could also be training and health procedures that are not preventing those injuries that could be prevented through proper training and health protocols. Both of those things fall on the general manager.
You also have the Tatsuya Imai problem that is beginning to look like a huge gaffe. We can certainly look at the whys and what fors. Maybe it was a massive talent misevaluation. Maybe they fumbled the ball at the goal line when it came to preparing him for the season. Maybe it is a problem with providing him with the proper day to day support in acclimating him to the rigors of MLB. It is likely a combination of all of those and it should be noted that the book has not been completely written. He could potentially return in May or June and become the pitcher they thought he would be. That would still mean six to eight weeks of zero production because the ball was fumbled somewhere along the way.
This brings us to the second consideration of real world ramifications. This club is in the same position it was in 2006. Their competitive window was closing with an aging Craig Biggio, Roger Clemens, and Andy Pettitte. Coming into 2007 they had a hard choice. They could continue to run the course with enough talent to compete, but not enough talent to win. They could have sold off enough minor pieces to rebuild the farm system and compete in 2008 or 2009. They could have also spent their way out of the problem. They chose option one and it set the Astros franchise back five seasons at least.
This Astros team is in the exact same position. Certainly, Crane COULD explode the budget to 300 million and load up the roster with enough talent to dominate the AL West. I think we know that is not happening. So, in the absence of that you can continue to limp down the road and hope to eat around the margins or you can start building the next great Astros team. The question comes down to who you want at the wheel for that decision?
The problem with keeping Brown through the season is that now is the time to strike. There might not be baseball next year with labor strife. This deadline is the time to get while the getting is good. You have the likes of Hunter Brown, Jeremy Pena, Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker, Jake Meyers, and Yordan Alvarez that are not likely to be a part of that next great Astros team. You could throw in Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader if they get back healthy and/or effective. I’m sure some of them can and will stick around. Which ones should they be and who gets to make that call?
Dana Brown is scrambling for his job. This isn’t an attack on him. I’d be of the same mindset in the exact same situation. His best chance of keeping his job is for the team to make a miraculous comeback and sneak into the playoffs. That’s not happening with a tear down. Yet, a tear down would put the Astros in the best position to win in 2028 and 2029. It only makes sense. Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa will be two years older then. They will be less likely to be productive players, so that production will have to come from others likely not yet on the roster.
In the last calendar year, not many things have gone right for Dana Brown. Even if he were looking ahead to 2028 or 2029, would you trust him to make the right trades to put this Astros team in better position? You are talking about potential moves that would shape this team for the next five to ten seasons. Obviously, the question of who you want making that call is a murky one and one that I have a hard time answering. I just know that I don’t want it to be Dana Brown.
