News broke on Saturday that the Cincinnati Bengals executed a pre-NFL Draft trade that is among the most profound in team history. Cincinnati agreed to send its No. 10 overall pick to the Giants for star defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence.
Aside from his sheer size and power to combat the rough-and-tumble AFC North divisional foes, Lawrence brings more to the table that goes beyond the more pronounced stat lines.
Warren Sharp, one of the preeminent NFL analytics minds, unveiled a number of reasons why
this move is such a good one for the Bengals.
Obviously, there is a lot to unpack here. Last year appeared to be a prime opportunity for the Bengals to re-seize the division, with the Ravens posting a losing record (8-9) and a very flawed Pittsburgh Steelers squad winning the North with 10 wins.
Aside from a trio of new coaches everywhere but Cincinnati and Trey Hendrickson heading to Baltimore, the in-division squads face many of the same doubts. Most notably, as Sharp points out, is former Ravens center Tyler Linderbaum signing with the Raiders this offseason. That’s an immediate mismatch in favor of Cincinnati.
Personally, I’ve looked at how teams do and should address the draft with a bit of divisional goggles on during the weekend. The splashes teams within the division make in free agency, as well as recent draft hits, can influence which positions are selected in an effort to remedy potential mismatches. After all, divisional games make up 35% of any given team’s annual schedule—not counting any potential playoff clashes.
For example, after Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and Ja’Marr Chase burst onto the scene, the Ravens’ 2022 NFL Draft class included five defensive picks in the first four rounds. Three of those players (Kyle Hamilton, Jalyn Armor-Davis, and Damarion Williams) were defensive backs, while the other two (David Ojabo and Travis Jones) were pass-rush selections.
Lawrence’s numbers weren’t the same last year compared to his past seasons, but when he was getting a spell, the Giants’ defensive performance plummeted. This was particularly evident with Sharp compiling data (yards per attempt, pass success rate, pressure rate, and EPA per pass) during a span in which Lawrence was nominated to two Pro Bowls and earned a Second-Team All-Pro designation.
Essentially, in that three-year span, the rest of the Giants’ defense without Lawrence on the field didn’t rank higher than No. 30 in those five aforementioned categories. By contrast, they were in the top half of the league when Lawrence was on the field, including three top-10 rankings (pass success rate, sack rate, and EPA per pass).
Sharp also notes that Lawrence was the most double-teamed player, not only making an impact himself but freeing up others to do so as well. The analytics guru shared additional eye-popping data around the time the trade rumors really gained steam, highlighting Lawrence’s productivity compared to other nose tackles in the league.
Lawrence’s impact is not only reflected in his personal statistics but also in his ability to free up surrounding players. This is good news for a myriad of Bengals defenders. While the Hendrickson departure stings, Lawrence’s arrival not only provides a more effective and potentially fresher defensive front overall but should also aid young linebackers Demetrius Knight Jr. and Barrett Carter in their critical second year.
Despite any subpar years from the most competitive divisions in football (like in 2025 with the AFC North), there’s no disputing each team’s physicality, preference to win at the line of scrimmage, and commitment to playing ultra-physical football. Lawrence gives the Bengals an immense opportunity to improve all of those facets of their defense.
