Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, November 22 at 3:45 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPNU
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field — Philadelphia, PA
- Spread: Tulane (-7.5)
- Over/under: 56.6
- All-time series: Series tied, 1-1
- Last meeting: Tulane 52, Temple 6 — November 9, 2024
- Current streak: Tulane, 2 (2020-24)
Setting the scene
Tulane’s chances at a College Football Playoff appearance belong in its own hands. The Green Wave earned a No. 24 ranking from the committee on Tuesday night. Ranked atop the American Conference and as
one of the five highest-conference leaders, Tulane essentially controls its own destiny to compete in and host the American Championship — a gateway game to the playoff.
Tulane’s remaining schedule consists of Temple and Charlotte. But Temple isn’t going to roll over and take one for the conference. The Owls are greedy for their own bowl eligibility prospects, after missing the postseason in each of the first five years of the 2020s. It’s jazz vs. soul as teams from New Orleans and Philadelphia collide at Lincoln Financial Field.
Tulane Green Wave outlook
Tulane controls its own College Football Playoff destiny, which is an extreme rarity for American Conference teams in November, or really at any point in the season prior to playoff expansion. The Green Wave just need to do what they do best to qualify, and that’s win conference games. Tulane is 27-3 in its last 30 American regular season contests, and only one of those losses transpired in a road environment.
The Green Wave are playing their best offensive football at the moment, registering their two highest scoring outputs of the season — 38 and 35 — within the last two weeks. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff — more renowned as a runner earlier in the season — is opening up the passing game by sprinkling verticality in the offense. He fired for 332 yards and three touchdowns at Memphis and followed it up with 241 and two against Florida Atlantic. Although his mobility has taken a back seat in recent weeks, it’s still an integral part of his game, and he has 11 rushing touchdowns on the season.
A year-long goal for Tulane is jump-starting the run game outside of Retzlaff. The Green Wave continue to shuffle through running backs, aiming to find a long-term solution at RB1. Last week, Jamauri McClure became the first 90-yard rusher for the Green Wave all season, and McClure (averaging 8.0 yards per carry) likely maintains his feature role alongside Javin Gordon.
Similar to the run game, the receiving corps takes a committee approach as well. Bryce Bohanon’s 101-yard outing vs. Memphis is the only time a Tulane receiver eclipsed the century mark this year, and the offense relies on an even distribution between Bohanon, Shazz Preston, Omari Hayes, and Anthony Brown-Stephens, who all possess between 24 and 31 receptions on the year.
Defensively, Tulane is solid against the run (57th in yards allowed), but the passing game presents some concerns (127th in the FBS). Getting shredded over the top was a major concern in the 22-point loss to UTSA, and the passing defense was the reason Tulane nearly squandered a 21-point lead to Memphis two weeks ago. That’s one area to shore up, but the Green Wave are incredibly physical at the line of scrimmage.
Defensive ends Harvey Dyson III and Santana Hopper combine for 16.5 tackles for loss, assisting the effort in limiting opposing ball-carriers to 3.7 yards per carry. Tulane’s safeties also thrive in the box against the run, as Jack Tchienchou and Bailey Despanie are two of the top hitters on the team. The defense could receive a nice boost this week with the potential return of inside linebacker Sam Howard — the heart and soul of this defense, powering through a broken leg.
The turnover game has been quite streaky for Tulane. The Green Wave started the season at a scalding pace but hadn’t recorded more than one takeaway in a game since September, until last week, when it forced four against Florida Atlantic. Defensive backs Javion White and Jahiem Johnson lead that effort with three interceptions apiece on the season.
Temple Owls outlook
Temple secured five wins for the first time in the 2020s and is on the doorstep of bowl eligibility. However, the Owls earned their fifth win as far back as Oct. 25, cycling through two-straight losses since to fall back to .500.
The Owls were decimated by East Carolina in their last matchup in Philadelphia, suffering a 45-14 blowout defeat to one of the league’s championship contenders. Temple came closer to that coveted sixth win on the road at Army, but an 18-play, 53-yard drive that consumed 9:53 of clock prevented the Owls from an attempt at a game-winning drive.
Temple executes one particular facet as well as anybody in the country, and that’s ball security. K.C. Keeler’s team is tied with UConn for first in the FBS in fewest turnovers with two — fumbling once against Navy and tossing one interception to East Carolina. One player that deserves tons of credit for Temple’s lack of miscues is quarterback Evan Simon. The senior quarterback greatly accelerated his game this year, boasting a stat-line of 22 touchdowns to one pick with two games remaining in the regular season. The Owls are 5-1 when he fires for at least 160 yards, and igniting the passing game is a priority for this offense.
Simon’s top targets include wide receivers Kajiya Hollawayne and JoJo Bermudez, as well as an explosive downfield tight end in Peter Clarke. The three are utilized to a similar extent, all lying within the yardage range of 434 to 445 on the season. Colin Chase has recently emerged as another viable option — entering this matchup fresh off his most productive 3-game stretch all season.
Temple is ranked relatively higher as a rushing offense (70th) than a passing offense (93rd) in terms of yards per game. The Owls attack with well-traveled veteran running back Jay Ducker, who previously faced Tulane two years ago as a Memphis Tiger. Ducker adjusted well to his fourth FBS stop, toting 729 rushing yards and six touchdowns, with a second 1,000-yard season in play.
The Owls’ defense fluctuates quite drastically on a weekly basis. Their last four matchups featured two games of allowing 37 points or greater and two games of allowing 14 points or fewer. There are factors to this volatility such as the caliber of opponent, but the week-to-week swings are still evident. Temple is one of the better passing defenses in the FBS, surrendering 180 yards (20th nationally) on a 59.4 completion rate. But the Owls are also exhibit one of the worst run defenses, giving up 195 yards (124th nationally) on a 5.0 average.
The main playmaker on defense is linebacker Damien Ordonez, who leads the team by a miles in tackles with 67, contributing 8.0 tackles for loss, three pass deflections, and a forced fumble on the side. Defensive end Cam’Ron Stewart also causes some havoc to the vaunted pass defense as the Owls’ premier pass rusher. And when it comes to the turnover battle, Avery Powell is in high demand with an interception and two fumble recoveries on the year.
Prediction
Tulane is a remarkably consistent team. Outside of an outlier game against a playoff-bound Ole Miss team, Tulane scored between 23 and 38 points on every opponent so far this year. Thus, the Green Wave’s offensive outputs are quite predictable based on past data. Tulane’s offense plays different style games, as we saw the run-oriented Jake Retzlaff take over Duke and the pass-oriented Jake Retzlaff take over Memphis, but the end result is often similar on the scoreboard.
Temple is more inconsistent, but the Owls can exploit one matchup against the American Conference frontrunner. The Evan Simon-led passing offense should see some success against Tulane’s secondary, especially when factoring in the lack of Owls’ turnovers. Tulane needed a +3 in the turnover battle to defeat Florida Atlantic by 11 last week, and the Green Wave defense relies on takeaways to a notable extent.
Temple keeps it close, but Tulane prevails late with one of its better rushing performances of the year, led by Retzlaff and the committee of running backs.
Prediction: Tulane 27, Temple 23
