Just three weeks ago, the Giants hosted the Philadelphia Phillies in a series I figured was over before it started. As you’ll recall, the Giants sent the Phillies away from Oracle Park in grand style: back to back shutouts. It didn’t exactly send Philadelphia into a tailspin, but after entering the series in San Francisco 6-4, they’ve gone 3-15. The two teams have effectively swapped positions.
Are these 9-19 Phillies firmly in “also ran” territory with five months of the season remaining? Well, they
fired their manager, Rob Thomson, this morning. He was the guy who took over after Gabe Kapler. Replacing Thomson is… haha — wait, seriously? Don Mattingly!
I had forgotten he managed the Marlins for seven seasons (2016-2022) and only in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season did he have a winning record (2020).
Anyway, a manager is usually only as good as their roster, and in this Phillies roster ol’ Donnie Two Times might have found himself firmly between those Marlins teams and his Dodgers teams. There are certainly good players on this roster, but as we saw in San Francisco and as we can see by their record, the bloom is off the rose for this particular group.
You know, unless Don Mattingly energizes them for this series.
But the 10-game losing streak they’ve already suffered this season is their longest since 1999. They’ve also lost 11 of 12 heading into this series. Their 9-19 start is their worst since 2002. The vibes are nonexistent at this point.
On the other hand, there’s a chance the Giants might have actually lost some of their momentum with the travel day. Going 4-2 on a homestand that included the Dodgers was such a good time and their comeback from a 3-0 deficit in the finale against the Marlins so heartening that getting on a plane and heading east seems like it could’ve cooled off a team that was warming up.
Can the confusion and consternation of the Phillies situation make it easier for the bats to stay in a groove? We’ll find out, I suppose. The Giants faced two of the pitchers in this series back in San Francisco and got 11 hits and 4 runs against the Phillies’ ace Cristopher Sanchez. In three starts since, he’s given up 26 hits in 17.12 IP while striking out 20. He has a 4.11 FIP in that span as well.
You’ll recall that the Giants shutout the Phillies in the final two games of the series and since then, Philadelphia has mustered just 3.75 runs per game (60 runs in 16 games) and a team line of .218/.284/.370 with a 7.2 BB% and 21.7 K%. It was actually lower on the 9-game homestand they had following the Giants series (3.66).
That Phillies series really does feel like the first key turning point of this Giants season and having a rematch so soon could be tricky. The Phillies have enough dangerous talent that the Giants are better off seeing them in a state of transition than at full strength and you just hope they can get through this series before they coalesce around their new manager.
Who is Don Mattingly.
A famously not great manager.
Still, it’s Baseball, so, you never know. Maybe this is the situation that works for manager and team. But, you know, they should put it together after the Giants leave town.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (13-15) at Philadelphia Phillies (9-19)
Where: Citizens Bank Park | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
When: Tuesday & Wednesday at 3:40pm PT, Thursday at 10:05am PT
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Wednesday)
Projected starters
Tuesday: Tyler Mahle (RHP 1-3, 5.26 ERA) vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP 1-3, 6.91 ERA)
Wednesday: Logan Webb (RHP 2-3, 4.86 ERA) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP 2-2, 2.94 ERA)
Thursday: Adrian Houser (RHP 0-3, 7.36 ERA) vs. Andrew Painter (RHP 1-2, 5.25 ERA)
Players to watch
Phillies
Kyle Schwarber: Again, always keep an eye on this guy. He’s been the second-best hitter on the Phillies in the 16 games since the Giants series (135 wRC+) but with 6 homers and an 11% walk rate. On the negative side, just a .197 average and 29.6 K%.
Bryce Harper: He has been the best hitter on the Phillies over the same span (150 wRC+) and has mixed in 4 homers, 2 doubles, a triple, and a home run to go with a 10.4 BB% and 20.9 K%.
Jesus Luzardo: It’s going to be tough to get to Cristopher Sanchez twice in a month, I’d think, so the series might come down to how they handle the other Phillies lefty. He’s had just one great start this season (11 strikeouts and 1 run in 6.2 innings at Coors Field), but his only other decent start was last week against the Cubs in Chicago where he allowed just 1 run in 4.2 IP to go with 4 walks and only 3 strikeouts. He’s made 6 career starts against the Giants and sports a 5.37 ERA in 31 IP. Last year, though he was 1-0 in 2 starts with a 2.19 ERA.
Giants
Adrian Houser: It’s probably not going to go well for the Giants’ well-paid pitching machine, but he’s pitched okay at Citizens Bank Park for his career. In 4 games and 2 career starts, he’s 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA and — gasp — just 1 home run allowed. Now, that count could go up right away, but on the other hand, the Giants might need him to spin a gem for them to pull out a series win.
Heliot Ramos: He appears to be sneaking back to his lefty-mashing ways (career .849 OPS vs. LHP) with a triple slash of .292/.346/.500 (.846 OPS) in 26 PA against them this season. He’s been on a roll of late, with a .932 OPS over his past 15 games (55 PA).
Matt Gage/Ryan Borucki: It’s going to come down to getting some key outs against lefties and, well, these are the non-Erik Millers available to the Giants.
Tony Vitello watch
You know what? It could be worse for Giants fans, right? The Giants could’ve dropped $10 million on the manager’s position and be in a Phillies or Mets situation right now and we’d all have to sit there and let things play out while the front office hoped like hell that things would turn around. Vitello looks less deer in the headlights just a month into the job and, well, that’s a very good thing. But if Don Mattingly is able to exact some revenge against the Giants by catching Tony Vitello doing something “first time manager”-ish, I’m gonna lose it.
The Giants were lucky that Don Mattingly was the Dodgers’ manager for all those years. Sorry, Phillies fans.
Prediction time
The Giants will figure out a way to win a game in this series… right? Don Mattingly isn’t going to turn this whole Phillies mess around in a single series… right??
