A couple weeks ago, as the Yankees got decent injury news regarding their trio of injured sluggers, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton, I posed the question: what would Stanton in particular look like when returned? The idea was that among those recovering stars, Stanton was the player with the widest error bars. Anything, from a scorching hot late summer like the one he produced in 2025, to the tepid batting line he posted at the start of this season, to devastating re-injury, seemed
possible.
Well, we know how that turned out. Stanton indeed re-injured himself, and his season is likely over. Bellinger has returned, leaving Judge as the last, and most important, domino to fall. So, with rumors swirling about a possible Judge comeback in the next two weeks: what should we expect from the Captain?
As Judge (hopefully) approaches a healthy return, I think it’s worth remembering just how excellent the 34-year-old still looked prior to his injury. Judge first suffered a rib fracture against the Astros on April 26th, and told reporters later that he may have aggravated the fracture when he crashed into the right field wall on May 3rd against the Orioles. Judge had a robust .264/.403/.628 slash line that day, good for a 1.037 OPS. His OPS actually peaked a few days later, at 1.067 on May 6th.
That, to me, is the best-case scenario. Judge was, prior to his injury, by all accounts still among the very best in game, if not the best. Homing in on that May 6th peak, Judge had a 190 wRC+, a .442 wOBA, and a .457 expected wOBA. For context, Judge had a .463 wOBA and .459 expected wOBA for the entirety of his sensational 2025 campaign. All of this is to say, Judge at the start of the season was still Aaron Judge.
But the rib injury obviously impacted Judge as he attempted to play through pain. He had an .888 OPS in 31 games post-injury, great but entirely non Judge-like. He struggled much more as time went on and the injury presumably worsened, running a paltry .665 OPS in the three weeks before he finally withdrew from the lineup on May 31st. That latter figure feels like an almost inconceivable outcome for Judge as long as he’s not seriously injured. The former figure feels more plausible as the kind of production Judge could provide if he is still somewhat compromised or rusty when he returns.
For what it’s worth, public projection systems paint an optimistic picture. ZiPS pegs him for a 173 wRC+, and 1.2 fWAR in 101 plate appearances. While it’s unlikely Judge actually eclipses 100 PA’s in the remaining regular season games, that WAR figure is noteworthy. ZiPS essentially forecasts Judge at this very moment to be worth over 8 WAR per 700 plate appearances, which is another way of saying that ZiPS still projects Judge, even after this absence, as the best position player in the world on a rate basis.
How realistic is such a forecast? Obviously, it’s hard to say from the outside, with so little information about Judge’s health and how much time he’ll need to get back up to speed after a three-plus-month layoff. But we can gauge expectations using the clues available to us. Judge struggled mightily when compromised, but was still positively incredible when health earlier this year. Even accounting for his time on the sidelines, projections give us a rosy forecast. What do you think? Can Judge be a world-beater when he gets back?
Tonight, the series with the Astros continues in the Bronx, and on the site this morning, John profiles a Yankee legend (?) in Jayson Nix, who turns 44 today. Also, Andrew runs through what you may have missed on Tuesday night, Josh analyzes Mark Walter and The Dodgers Of It All, and Maximo discusses the challenges that come with a top-heavy lineup.
Today’s Matchup:
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Time: 7:05 p.m. EST
TV: Amazon Prime Video, Space City Home Network
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
