It is that time of year again! The leaves are changing, the football team is trying to remind us of the inglorious days of the Ron Zook era, and basketball season is around the corner! Since the Illini cut down the nets in Houston before falling again to the Tantrum King, the offseason has shifted the focus from the court to the courtroom. The new five years to play five rule was applied haphazardly during the offseason, and then predictably met with a wave of lawsuits of graduated players not good
enough for the NBA wanting to come back for one last payday. Despite the season being mere weeks away, there still is a lack of clarity on if all, some or none of the fifth-year players will be eligible to play this year, which makes trying to predict the order of the Big Ten even more impossible than normal. Nevertheless, I will try to do just that, giving a peek at each team in the conference and what we might be able to expect from then. We will start off with the bottom three, the teams who sadly have little chance to go dancing even in the new, ridiculous 76-team bracket.
18. Penn State
Predicted Starting Lineup
Jay Rodgers, Sixth year, 11.0 ppg/2.2 rpg/6.9 apg at Central Connecticut
Rodgers is a point guard with decent size at 6-foot-3 making a big leap from the Northeastern Conference to the Big Ten. He has good vision and is your typical lefty, in that he only uses his right hand to set up getting back to his left. He shoots the three decently, but his bread and butter is getting into the midrange or to the basket out of the pick and roll. Between injury redshirts and a juco year he has been in college basketball forever and will be turning 25 during the season.
Roberts Blums, Junior, 12.4 ppg/3.4 rpg/1.1 apg at Davidson
Hailing from Latvia and adding a surprise S at the end of both of his names, Blums is a 6-foot-4 sniper, shooting almost 41% from three on high volume. He is mostly a spot up shooter but has some off the bounce ability, likes sidestep threes similar to his Latvian comrade Kasparas Jakucionas. Defense is questionable at best.
Brant Byers, Junior, 14.2 ppg/4.1 rpg/0.6 apg at Miami (Ohio)
Byers is a lanky 6-foot-8 shooter with deep range and a decent ability to attack overzealous close outs off the bounce. He was the second leading scorer on a Miami team that went undefeated until the MAC tournament. Milan Momcilovic was considered by many to be the top transfer in the transfer portal this year, and Byers feels like a Penn State budget version of him. I expect him to be their leading scorer.
Roko Prkacin, Full Grown Adult, Croatia, 6-foot-10 Power Forward
Bear with me while I get on my soap box for a moment. I think the regulations the NCAA and congress are trying to put into place are needed to create order in the sport, but I don’t agree with it all. Five years to play five makes sense and takes away the nonsense of waivers and petitions. Just one transfer allowed as an undergrad also is a great adjustment. However, some of their plans to limit players who have played professionally in Europe, or that foreign players can only make up 20% of a roster don’t make sense to me. College players are getting paid exorbitant salaries these days (as they should be), it makes no sense to disqualify someone because they made a significantly lower salary previously, and if a player is the right age, talent, and education level to enroll in a college he should not be restricted. All that said, Roko Prkacin has no business playing college basketball. Prkacin is turning 25 next month, declared for the 2021(!!!) NBA draft before withdrawing after the combine and has been playing professional basketball for 7 years now. The NCAA has apparently approved his eligibility (I cannot find any information on how many years he has), which completely breaks my brain.
As far as who he is as a player, fairly athletic post up big who can put it on the floor some, but never developed a perimeter game or rim protection which is why he has had a fairly underwhelming European career considering his high-profile prospect status as a teenager eons ago. This starting spot could also end up being Josh Reed, a potential returnee who is in limbo as the courts sort his eligibility out.
Ivan Juric, Sophomore, 10.2 ppg/5.3 rpg/0.8 apg
Another Croatian, Juric actually makes sense as a college player having just turned 20. He is seven feet tall, but does not have much athleticism to provide rim protection. He is a typical skilled Balkan big man who can shoot a little, dribble a little and post up a little. Last year he only shot 28% from three, if he can bump that into the mid 30’s he could be their best player alongside Byers. Defensively he lacks athleticism and does not provide much rim protection despite his size.
Why Illinois Beats Them
They get the Balkans and Baltics that we pass on. Defensively, Rhoades brought a havoc style defense from VCU, but the general lack of athleticism does not allow them to continue to play that way, Illinois should be able to hang triple digits on them.
Why They Beat Illinois
Devastating flu bug running through the Illini team? Byers and Blums could shoot the cover off the ball to keep up with the Illini, but there really is no reason to lose this game, it’s at home and the talent gap is the size of the grand canyon.
X-Factor
From the players they were last year, I think Blums has the most room for growth. If he can maintain efficiency against better defenses, while expanding his off the dribble game, that gives Penn State three legitimately dangerous offensive threats, as well as a pick and roll distributor in Rodgers. The defense is going to be in the bottom three or four teams in the conference regardless, but if Blums is good they might be able to shoot their way out of the basement.
Bottom Line
If they had somehow been able to put together the money and the pitch to convince Kayden Mingo to stick around, they filled out the roster with some interesting pieces. Unfortunately for Mike Rhoades he went to greener pastures at Baylor, and the Nittany Lions just cannot sign enough high major quality players to compete in the Big Ten night in and night out.
17. Northwestern
Predicted Starting Lineup
Jake West, Sophomore, 5.3 ppg/0.8 rpg/2.8 apg
West is a 6-foot-3 point guard who lacks strength and explosiveness but provides a little of everything else. He is an old school shoot/pass/dribble triple threat. He came on strong at the end of his freshman year, averaging 9.6 points and 3.6 assists over the last 10 games while shooting 39% from three.
Angelo Ciaravino, Junior, 6.3 ppg/3.9 rpg/1.2 apg
Ciaravino is a strong, versatile defender who can guard 1-4. Offensively, his game is mostly limited to smart cuts and putbacks. If Chris Collins wants a little more offensive punch in the starting lineup, he could turn to slashing Northeastern transfer LA Pratt.
Jack Karasinski, Super Senior, 21.7 ppg/4.7 rpg/1.2 apg at Bellarmine
Karasinski will be tasked with filling the very big shoes of Nick Martinelli. At a much lower level, he had a very similar game. He can shoot the three efficiently, and loves to work in the mid post, making up for a lack of elite size or athleticism with crafty hook and scoop shots. It will be hard to maintain his 56% from the field and 41.5% from three rates against much bigger, more athletic defenders, but he is a good bet to be Northwestern’s leading scorer.
Colin Smith, Super Senior, 11.9 ppg/4.2 rpg/1.5 apg at UC Santa Barbara
Having spent his first two seasons at Vanderbilt, Colin Smith already has experience at a superior scholarly institution as well as power conference basketball. At Vanderbilt he was an inefficient shooter from three, but he has improved his rates to over 40% each of his past two seasons in the Big West. At 6-foor-8 220 pounds, he will have to fight hard defensively against some of the bigger power forwards in the conference.
Luke McEldon, Senior, 11.7 ppg/6.2 rpg/1.3 apg at Mount Saint Mary’s
McEldon is a 6-foot-10 wide bodied post player from across the pond in London. He does not have much of a game outside the paint and will rely on Chris Collins’ post trapping defense to deal with some of the more athletic, skilled big men in the Big Ten. Their other primary option down low who could start is Okku Federiko, a Drake transfer who is the opposite of McEldon. He is long and lanky without the weight to bang down low, but is a decent shot blocker and has some perimeter ability.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Northwestern typically gets around a lack of size and athleticism by playing an in-sync post trapping defense. Illinois has good passers across the board (except Stojakovic) and should be able to pick that apart for good looks.
Why They Beat Illinois
They always give us a fight in their sleepy high school gym. It really shouldn’t happen this year, but their home game against us is in that early January period before school is back in session when weird things happen.
X Factor
Jake West is getting the buzz out of Evanston for being ready to take a big leap. In general, Northwestern has been a tough team to beat in recent years by having superstars like Boo Buie, Brooks Barnhizer, and Nick Martinelli who the rest of the team can just fill a role around. That is a big leap for West to reach those heights, but if he does it raises Northwestern’s ceiling significantly. So far, he is more known as a TikToker than a basketball player, and this ranking reflects that. I just can’t picture Will Byers from Stranger Things ending up on an All-Big Ten team.
Bottom Line
You can expect a Chris Collins team to be tough and well-coached, but having a giant question mark at the center position is death in the Big Ten, and they are asking a lot of low major players to make a huge leap to the Big Ten. If Karasinski and West can carry the offensive load this might be too low, but color me skeptical that they are up for that.
16. Oregon
Predicted Starting Lineup
Fred Payne, Senior, 15.8 ppg/4.2 rpg/2.7 apg/1.1 spg at Boston College
Payne was a low efficiency combo guard for Boston College. Oregon will be looking for him to improve as a facilitator, as they lack other on-ball options who can make plays for other people. Payne is a lefty who can shoot some off the dribble, but prefers to attack the rim off the bounce and use crafty finishes amongst the trees.
Jasper Johnson, Sophomore, 4.9 ppg/1.1 rpg/1.6 apg at Kentucky
Johnson looks a lot like a bigger, less proven version of Payne as another lefty combo guard. Illini fans may be familiar with the name, as Orlando Antigua was recruiting him pretty hard before he committed to Kentucky. He was a top 20 recruit but was lightly used on a deep Kentucky squad.
Andrew Meadow, Senior, 12.1 ppg/3.6 rpg/1.0 apg at Boise State
With all their higher profile transfers, Meadow goes under the radar a bit. He feels a bit like their version of Jake Davis but has a bit more to his offensive game. He cuts well and uses his shooting gravity to attack close outs. Defensively, he makes up for a lack of athleticism with intensity and positioning.
Dwayne Aristode, Sophomore, 3.8 ppg/1.7 rpg/0.7 apg at Arizona
Aristode is the forward version of Jasper Johnson: top 30 recruit who did not play much on a talented team as a freshman. Of all their players, he probably has the most NBA upside as a potential three-and-D wing. Aristode is 6-foot-8, long and athletic, and in a small sample size shot 46% from three last year. There isn’t much off the bounce juice yet so he isn’t ready to become a primary scoring option, but he can be an impactful role player.
Sean Stewart, Senior, 6.5 ppg/5.2 rpg/1.2 apg
One of just two returnees on the roster along with backup point guard Wei Lin, Sean Stewart is a long, bouncy interior player. Once a big-time recruit for Duke, Stewart has had trouble expanding his offensive game beyond catch and shoot midrange jumpers and pogo stick offensive putbacks. Defensively, he has struggled with foul trouble and has been a below average rim protector despite looking the part with his length and athleticism.
Why Illinois Beats Them
Illinois is too big for Oregon to guard. Sean Stewart is just 6-foot-9 and Tomislav should be able to float hook shots over him all night, and the guards will have a hard time dealing with Stojakovic and Vaaks.
Why They Beat Illinois
There is the talent and athleticism here to be a tough team. Illinois has struggled in the past with quick scoring guards, and Oregon has two of them in Johnson and Payne.
X Factor
Tony Stubblefield. For the first time since 2009, someone besides Dana Altman will be in charge of the Ducks after Altman retired on the doorstep to the season. Stubblefield has some head coaching experience, having coached the hapless DePaul Demon Deacons for two and a half forgettable years. He never had the talent to work with at DePaul that he has here, but it is mostly unrealized and unfamiliar talent, which takes real coaching chops to put together. Altman possibly quit because he saw this season as a difficult task to manage, so all I can say is good luck to a much less accomplished coach than Altman.
Bottom Line
The talent on this team is much better than the 16th best team in the conference, but the combination of the late coaching change and the complete lack of continuity is a recipe for a tough season. Beyond the starters, the bench is deep with potential contributors in Wei Lin, top 50 freshman Tajh Ariza (son of Trevor), Tyrone Riley and Taylor Bol Bowen. The best version of them takes advantage of that depth and athleticism to play aggressive defense and get easy points in transition, but it is hard to trust them to do so cohesively with so much turnover, starting at the top with Stubblefield.
