Mike Elias and the front office should enter this offseason motivated to make a true splash in free agency. The Orioles need to bolster the roster to have a real chance of competing in the AL East. Baltimore will look to sign players that can help the club return to the postseason, but what happens after they get there?
If the Orioles make the playoffs next season, who takes the ball in Game 1? Kyle Bradish established himself as one of the league’s best with a Top 5 finish in the Cy Young vote back
in 2023, but he missed a majority of the 2024 and 2025 seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Trevor Rogers received Cy Young votes after a dominant return this season. The lefty pitched to a 9-3 record, 1.81 ERA, 0.903 WHIP and 5.5 bWAR over 18 starts. That’s top of the rotation stuff if the 28-year-old can repeat it, but Rogers is likely due for at least some form of regression to the mean next season.
There’s still a world where former top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez emerges as one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the Orioles know they cannot count on a healthy Rodriguez to lead their rotation next year. Rodriguez pitching to his potential would provide a real boost, but the front office must acknowledge the health concerns that have plagued the 26-year-old.
The Orioles can solidify the rotation for 162 games and beyond by signing a player that allows each pitcher to slide one spot down. There are only a few available pitchers that fit the mold as a true number one starter this offseason, and Framber Valdez is one of them.
Valdez has posted incredibly consistent numbers over the last six seasons for Houston. The free agent posted a 3.57 ERA (125 ERA+) as a full time starter in 2020. He returned with a 3.14 ERA (137 ERA+) the following season, and posted a 2.82 ERA (135 ERA+) in 2022. Over the last three seasons, Valdez posted a 3.45 ERA (123 ERA+), 2.91 ERA (138 ERA+) and 3.66 ERA (114 ERA+).
Valdez delivered similar numbers to Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes while finishing two spots below him in Cy Young voting in 2024. Burnes provided incredible stability on the mound that season, and the Orioles clearly missed his presence last year.
Of course, the Orioles missed several starting pitchers as players struggled to stay healthy. Valdez—knock on wood—has managed to do just that throughout his career in Houston. The veteran led the league with 201.1 innings pitched in 2021. He followed with 198 innings in 2023, 176.1 innings in 2024, and 192 innings last season.
The groundball pitcher relies on a sinker, curveball and changeup while mixing in the occasional slider and four seamer. At 5-foot-11, he’s not particularly big, but his mechanics have yet to cause any significant injuries.
There’s no doubt that Valdez can pitch with the best of them right now, but his age will play a factor in any type of long term deal. The lefty will turn 32 years old later this week. Teams may feel more comfortable hitching their wagon to free agents like Ranger Suárez (30 years old) or Dylan Cease (29 years old).
MLB Trade Rumors projects a deal worth $150 million over five years for Valdez. Five years feels like the limit for a guy set to turn 32. That being said, MLB Trade Rumors projects a seven-year, $189 million deal for Cease. Either way, you’re likely keeping a guy beyond his prime.
The Birds will enter 2026 with some uncertainty in the bullpen. Félix Bautista will miss a majority of the season, and there are several holes that need plugged. With this level of uncertainty, a bullpen saver like Valdez becomes even more valuable. Valdez has at least one complete game in each of the last five seasons, and he’s posted multiple complete games in three of the last four years.
The Orioles have been hesitant to commit to free agent starters in the modern era. In some ways, it feels like it should take the perfect player to break the mold, but that guy just isn’t out there. Burnes came close to fitting the profile, but the veteran signed with Arizona before suffering a long term injury.
High priced starting pitchers always come with some risk, but it’s time for Elias to take some chances. Valdez’s age definitely falls into the “cons” category, but there’s also some character concerns after a highly publicized incident last season. Valdez may have intentionally crossed up catcher César Salazar after displaying some frustration on the mound. For what it’s worth, Valdez denied that the incident was intentional.
There’s no place for that in the game, and it’s a real turn off thinking about Valdez pulling a stunt with Adley Rutschman or Samuel Basallo. That being said, it’s one weird incident over a eight year career. People make mistakes. I won’t pretend to have anything close to a pulse on what type of teammate Framber Valdez is—that’s for the front office to determine before potentially inking the guy to a multi-year deal.
The Orioles might like Cease or Suárez better than Valdez, or he could be there top target. In the same vein, Valdez figures to have several suitors. One way or another, the Orioles need to strengthen the top of the starting rotation, and Valdez could make that happen over the next several seasons.
