MLB Trade Rumors have posted their arbitration estimates for all 30 teams. While these are only “best guesses”, history has shown them to be pretty accurate previously. So it’s a good way to figure out potential team salaries for next year, and also factor in to whether certain players could potentially be candidates to be non-tendered.
Before we get to that, a quick reminder on how the arbitration process works. Basically (in the interests of keeping it simple) players with less than three years
service time get minimum wage. But between three and six years, each season they go through arbitration. If they and the team can’t agree on a salary, each side will submit their bid to an arbitration panel, and make their case. The panel will pick one or other bid – no splitting the difference. The MLBTR estimates are a prediction of what each arb-eligible player will get.
For the Diamondbacks this winter, there are a LOT of candidates. Eleven all told. However, as we have discussed before, the team will need to free up a slew of 40-man roster spots, to make room for the players currently on the 60-day injured list. That goes away at the end of the World Series. So the team may opt not to tender contracts to some of the eleven. This will save money and free up roster spots. The players concerned become unrestricted free agents and can sign with any team. Perhaps even the D-backs.
So, below you will find the players, their current service time (in years and days), and the estimated salary for 2026. They are listed in descending order of salary.
- Ryan Thompson (5.095): $3.9MM
- A.J. Puk (5.124): $3.3MM
- Ryne Nelson (3.020): $3.3MM
- Kevin Ginkel (5.033): $3MM
- Gabriel Moreno (3.061): $2.4MM
- Pavin Smith (4.015): $2.4MM
- Alek Thomas (3.103): $2.2MM
- Jake McCarthy (3.074): $1.9MM
- Ildemaro Vargas (5.129): $1.4MM
- John Curtiss (4.078): $1.2MM
- Kyle Nelson (3.081): $1MM
Some of these are absolutely no-brainers: Ryne Nelson and Moreno. There are also some which would be very surprising to see non-tendered: Thompson, Curtiss and Smith. The last-named is one of those currently on the 60-day IL, but should be fine by spring training. Also on the 60-day IL are Ginkel and Puk. The former had his season ended in August by a sprained shoulder, but had an ugly 7.36 ERA over 29 appearances. While Puk started the year as co-closer, he had elbow surgery on June 20, and so will certainly miss most of the 2026 season.
The Thomas and McCarthy pairing offer a similar dilemma as each other. Neither exactly covered themselves in glory this year: 0.1 bWAR and -0.6 bWAR respectively, with both having very similar quantities of service time. But with Lourdes Gurriel out for Opening Day, and the only other outfielders on the 40-man roster being Corbin Carroll and Jorge Barrosa… Can the team afford to lose them? Or will the Diamondbacks instead look at moving Blaze Alexander to the outfield? What happens with Alek and Jake might give us a clue.
Vargas is close to the definition of replacement level. Nine season in the majors, and he has produced a total value of 1.8 bWAR. [Unrelated, but the most replacement level player ever was probably Walter Holke, a first-baseman who appeared in over 1,200 games between 1914-25 and was worth 0.1 bWAR. He also hit into the first recorded unassisted triple play in NL history] And Kyle Nelson was terrible, both in the majors and in Triple-A. Both seem very likely to be non-tendered.
We’ll likely have more detailed articles on some of the less certain individuals over the next few weeks. There will be polls. But immediately, who do you think should be tendered or not?
