If you’re new to this series, we’re reviewing how the Green Bay Packers offense performed in 2025 by down & distance. We’re doing that by building out a call sheet. I ran it all down in my initial post. This is the 6th article in the series, where we’re looking at 3rd & Long (where “Long” is defined as needing 7+ yards for a 1st down). We’ll reference Success Rate & Explosive Rate in this series, so here are the definitions. On 3rd down, a play is considered a success if it gains 100% of the yards needed
for a 1st down. A play is considered explosive if a pass gains 16+ yards or a run gains 12+ yards.
It’s obvious to say, but I’ll say it anyway: you don’t want to find yourself facing 3rd & Long if you can help it. It’s not a fun situation. The defense knows what approach you’ll be taking (offenses had a 91.8% pass rate on 3rd & Long in 2025), so they’re free to tell their edge rushers to just pin their ears back and try to hit the QB, while also focusing on throwing off the timing/passing lanes of the passing game on the back end. On the season, offenses averaged a Success Rate of 25.7% in this down and distance. No, finding yourself in 3rd & Long is no fun.
However, if you were to find yourself in a 3rd & Long situation in 2025, you’d probably want to be the Green Bay Packers. For the season, the Packers were 1st in Success Rate (38.8%), Yards Per Play (10.0) and Explosive Play Rate (28.4%). All hail the Green Bay Packers, your kings of 3rd & Long.
They averaged 4.6 non-Red Zone 3rd & Long plays per game, so we’re going to run through 5 plays today. It shouldn’t surprise you to learn that we’re rolling with 5 pass plays, as the Packers had a 94% pass rate on 3rd & Long
Verts (9.3 YPA, 33.3% Success)
This was the concept that the Packers utilized most often on 3rd & Long. It can be best described as “go that way really fast. If something gets in your way, turn.” (Shout-out Coach De Mar.)
Admittedly, I cast a wide net over this concept, so “Verts” can take on many different looks. I typically tag something as Verts if it has at least 3 routes that are pushing hard vertically. You can have different break-points depending on leverage, but it’s basically just dudes running down the field and bending to space.
Under my fairly broad description, the Packers ran Verts on 29.2% of their 3rd & Long plays this past year. The 33.3% Success Rate isn’t eye-popping, but it’s more than fine in this down & distance. To put that in context, if the Packers only ran Verts on 3rd & Long and converted at that 33.3% clip, they would have had the 4th best 3rd & Long offense in the league (ahead of the Rams at 32.7%).
Divide (7.0 YPA, 50.0% Success)
Depending on the alignment, you’ll often see the underneath receiver in this concept running directly behind the receiver in front of him. Both receivers running in a straight line, then breaking in different directions 12-15 yards down the field. Sometimes they’ll be at an angle (a Post paired with a Corner, for example), but the Packers had good luck with the out-breaker on the outside breaking straight to the sideline.
Mills (28.0 YPA, 100% Success)
If you can buy enough time in the pocket, this concept can work well in this situation. The safety on the opposite side of the field needs to be threatened enough by the inside route to take a step up, which can open a nice path for the outside receiver over the top.
I excluded Portland from this, but you could easily slot it in place of Mills if you wanted to. The concept works off the same general principles, but there is a hard in-cutter from the opposite side of the field from the post. The Packers had a 50% success rate on that one for 26.0 YPA.
Swirl Pump (30.0 YPA, 100% Success)
This is a concept that looks similar to the famed Drift Stalk concept we’ve seen out of the 49ers.
The vertical push from Jayden Reed is different enough that it’s probably closer to Swirl Pump. (This is something that no one truly cares about.)
The addition of Josh Whyle running the underneath out-cutting route creates a nice little bit of confusion here. We’ve got a vertical run-off route from the outside to clear the safety along with Reed pushing vertically from the slot. The route from Whyle gets the eyes from the defenders back towards the line, which allows Reed to get lost in the shuffle. I love this combination of routes.
Wolf (9.5 YPA, 50.0% Success)
This basically plays out like a deep Smash. We have a deep out route from the outside and a deep corner from the inside. Put that boundary defender in conflict and attack where he isn’t. On the play above, the defender flips his hips on the vertical push from Dontayvion Wicks, allowing free access to the sideline.
This was a particularly tough down & distance to find plays for in terms of specific concepts, because a lot of the Packers success was due to guys being dudes. I had Stops being a concept with a good Success Rate, but that was due to extended-play magic like the big completion to Savion Williams against the Giants.
Or Love making a check at the line against the lunatic Vikings front and lofting a ball over a dropping LB to Dontayvion Wicks.
I can’t necessarily say “this type of play worked,” because the concept itself isn’t what drove its success. You can draw up what you believe should work, but a lot of the Packers success on 3rd & Long this year can be tied to Love and the receivers making some nice plays under pressure.
Here’s how this section looks on our callsheet:
Here is where you can find the other parts of this series:
An Introduction
1st & 10
2nd & Long
2nd & Medium
2nd & Short
Albums listened to: Fiona Apple – Tidal; Maria Taylor – Story’s End; Elizabeth and The Catapult – Responsible Friend; Tigers Jaw – Lost on You; Radiohead – Pablo Honey; Girl Scout – Brink
