I cannot tell you how much joy I have with that picture of Ian Happ. First and foremost, I’m happy to see him get the proverbial monkey off of his back. Second, supposedly one of the things people are off put with him for is his lack of emotion. But there he is looking one really happy guy. I couldn’t be happier for him. That guy has been a good soldier for this team from the very beginning. From demotions to moving all over the diamond. He was a guy drafted as a bat-first primary second baseman
and became a glove-first left fielder. He doesn’t have the flash of Pete Crow-Armstrong. But he has the dependability that you expect him to make all of the plays in left field. He also has a bat that has been above average every year of his career.
Thursday night had that feel all up and down the Cub roster. The brighter the lights get, the more you need multiple guys pitching in. I saw several outraged social media posts about Matthew Boyd starting last night. 4.2 innings of shutout ball. I saw calls for Willi Castro to start at third. Matt Shaw had two hits, a walk, an RBI, a stolen base and several nice plays at third. Happ should sit. A three-run, tone-setting homer and two other balls he just missed. Kyle Tucker should sit. Two hits, two walks and a homer.
I can never remember a Cub player quite like Tucker. When he’s on, he’s a destructive force. But we’ve had a lot of those. Sammy Sosa is the most prominent of those. I guess Ryne Sandberg was the last guy the Cubs had like Tucker. That is, a guy who fills up the box score even when he is slumping. Sammy Sosa would vanish. Kris Bryant or Anthony Rizzo were the same thing. The vanishing offense was what led to the demise of the championship core. I distinctly remember a point in time this summer where Tucker was a month into a funk after his injury. And across all of those games he was averaging reaching base more than once per game. He’s a pest when he’s bad, particularly because he would have been a 30-30 player had he stayed healthy. He’s a weapon of mass destruction when he’s good. I’d have so much trouble letting that guy walk. And I’m horribly risk-averse by nature. The injuries terrify me with him. But boy is he a guy I dream on.
Postseason wins are like children. It’s hard to have a favorite. But last night’s will be a favorite non-clinching, non-World Series variety for at least a little while. I hope the Cubs give me something on Saturday to knock this one off the hill. I thank this team and this BCB community for helping to pick me back up when I faltered a little down the stretch with this team. Regardless of what happens Saturday night and hopefully beyond, if you didn’t enjoy the 2025 Cubs, you ought to pick up a new hobby. This has been a terrific ride.
One side note. I alluded to this the other day: Tipping pitches has become a science in baseball. I’d seen someone make a post that said when we got down to the final eight, we basically had all of the best teams in baseball at picking up on any kind of tells. I saw something last night that I’ve never noticed the cameras pick up in a Cub game. After Kyle Tucker hit his homer, it caught Tucker and I think it was Happ talking and Shaw leaning in. Moments later, Carson Kelly hit a titanic blast to left that only wasn’t a two-run homer because he was so all over it. Happ drove one all of the way up against the wall. Michael Busch hit a lefty on lefty homer the next inning. The Cubs picked something up on Robert Gasser.
That was a wild decision by the Brewers. Gasser threw just 5.2 innings in the regular season. He was on their roster as a break glass in case of emergency guy. At 4-0, I wasn’t believing the Brewers were dead and buried. But there was Pat Murphy throwing him out there in the seventh inning. He saved bullets in a game that could have eliminated a worthy foe. I imagine there are some Brewer fans who are as salty as Phillies fans this morning. The Cubs have found some amazing ways to lose in the postseason in our collective lifetimes. That’s a rough way to see your season come to an end. I have a good friend who is a Philly fan. That’s a tough one.
One more game. Win or go home. I bet Los Angeles nights are beautiful this time of the year. Anyone else interested in Cubs/Dodgers NLCS round three?
Pitch Counts:
- Game 1: Cubs 166, Brewers 148 (+18)
- Game 2: Cubs 133, Brewers 152 (-19)
- Game 3: Cubs 153, Brewers 161 (-8)
- Game 4: Cubs 117, Brewers 178 (8 IP) – (-61)
Over the four-game series, the Brewers have now thrown 70 more pitches than the Cubs. What we’re seeing is a difference in plate approach. Without diving down rabbit holes, I wonder if we are seeing a philosophical issue play out for the Brewers in front of our eyes. Offensively, their approach involves being very aggressive early in the count. Never was that more obvious than game one when they had two runs something like four pitches into the game. They don’t strike out much and will take a walk when the other pitcher is struggling with control. But generally, they are aggressive early in the count. Conversely, their pitchers tend to try to get strike one and then work out of the zone.
As this series has worn on, the disparity has grown. The Cubs keep working five- and six- and seven-pitch plate appearances. Most of the Brewer pitching staff has been increasingly exposed. The three guys the Cubs have seen the least figure to be the key guys for their last stand. Jacob Misiorowski, Jose Quintana and Abner Uribe. I can’t, for the life of me, figure out where Uribe has been in this series. I know with Trevor Megill’s late-season injury why we’ve seen so little of him. But Uribe? Could there be something wrong with him?
At any rate, the Cubs made the Brewers throw more than 20 pitches per inning last night. When that happens, you are doing a pretty good job as a pitching staff to keep the damage out of double digits. You are generally cooked when you get up that high. On the Cubs side? 13 pitches per inning. Andrew Kittredge got the night off. They did use all of their highest leverage pitchers. None threw more than 15 pitches. With an off day Friday, the full bullpen will be available. You all know I like really small limbs. The Cubs will have 13 pitchers available for Saturday’s game. On one day of rest, Matthew Boyd will declare himself available for an inning after throwing 67 pitches in Game 4.
Game on.
Star Performances:
- Matthew Boyd – 4.2 scoreless
- Daniel Palencia – 1.1 scoreless
- Drew Pomeranz – 1 scoreless
- Brad Keller – 1 scoreless
- Caleb Thielbar – 1 scoreless
I give them their own section. Boyd allows two hits and three walks, strikes out six. Palencia allowed one hit. Pomeranz struck out two in a perfect inning. Keller walked one, but got a double play and faced the minimum.
- Michael Busch – homer, walk
- Nico Hoerner – three hits, run, steal
- Kyle Tucker – single, homer, 2 walks, 2 runs
- Ian Happ – three-run homer
- Matt Shaw – two hits, walk, RBI, steal
10 hits, six walks, three homers. Against that pitching? Tour de force.
NL Division Series Game 4: Cubs 6, Brewers 0 (2-2)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Ian Happ (.215). 1-5, HR, 3 RBI, R
- Hero: Matthew Boyd (.165). 4.2 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 0 ER, 6 K
- Sidekick: Daniel Palencia (.104). 1.1 IP, H (W 3-0)
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.078). 1-5
- Goat: Michael Busch (-.026). 1-4, HR, BB, RBI, R
- Kid: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.022). 0-2, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Ian Happ’s three-run homer in the first inning for the game’s first three runs. (.250)
*Brewers Play of the Game: Sal Frelick’s lead-off double in the fifth inning. (.058)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Brad Keller received 110 of 231 votes.
H&G Top/Bottom:
- Colin Rea +5
- Three players -3
25 players between +3 and -3. Small sample and all, but really highlights that this is a really team effort.
Up Next: Here is where I try to give you a snapshot of what to expect in the next game. I usually deep dive into the starters. Neither team has yet announced a starter. If I were betting, I’d bet Ashby starts for the Brewers seeing if they can get Busch out of the lineup to start the game. I spent all season telling you that other teams were going to be looking to find excuses to use lefties to deal with the Cubs. CDu spent all season in my comments telling you that it wasn’t a huge difference. Kyle Tucker’s reverse splits against lefties are such a unicorn and valuable weapon that it has largely neutralized any disadvantage. Oh, and Seiya Suzuki being one of the best hitters against lefties in baseball this year.
On the Cubs side, I suspect Shōta Imanaga gets the start. I think. Or maybe Drew Pomeranz. He’s been elite in this series and Imanaga’s first inning problems are so well documented. Like Game 2, if Misiorowski can throw strikes, I think he gets the largest share of Brewer innings. I think he and Quintana get the most rope. I think Imanaga and Rea probably get the most rope for the Cubs.
But what I’m really here to tell you is that this is an all hands on deck elimination game. Notwithstanding the rigors of a 162-game season plus the respective postseason work for the two teams, the bullpens are decently rested. Even with all of the pitches the Brewers threw Thursday night, only Ashby and Gasser threw more than 20 in relief. Freddy Peralta threw 84. It would probably have to be a very specific spot for Peralta or Boyd to pitch. But with 12 pitchers available to each manager, I would expect to see as many as seven throw for each side. Don’t lose sleep over who gets the ball first. As important as the first inning is, after three batters or across an inning break, there is a fair chance the next guy is coming. If someone is dominating, they’ll get some rope. If they aren’t, the next guy is gonna get in there.
Take a deep breath. I’ll be surprised if these teams don’t give us a close game. It’s likely to be tense. Don’t let the pressure of the moment exceed the pleasure of the experience. This is the good part. Never take it for granted.
