This weekend (Sat., Aug. 29, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will venture forth to SPD Bank Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai, China for UFC Shanghai. Unsurprisingly, the top two fights of the night feature a pair of China’s best combat athletes, Song Yadong and Yan Xiaonan. It’s unfortunate that Zhang Weili wasn’t able to make an appearance, but otherwise, this card represents most of the brightest talent the region has to offer.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of five main
card fights leading up to the main event:
Strawweight: Yan Xiaonan (-140) vs. Denise Gomes (+120)Best Win for Xiaonan? Mackenzie Dern For Gomes? Tecia Pennington
Current Streak: Xiaonan lost her last bout, whereas Gomes has won four straight
X-Factor: Xiaonan is 37 years old
How these two match up: This is going to be a scrap between two Strawweights who can crack.
Xiaonan is a kickboxer with precise distance management. She doesn’t invite lengthy exchanges but instead stabs at her opponent with long, linear blows in the hopes of lining up that perfect right hand counter. Gomes is more straightforward in her attack, a fireplug of a striker who throws body-head combinations. Between the two, Gomes is more likely to hunt for a takedown, though neither is active in hunting for submissions.
Aside from the 11-year age difference, the style clash here seems to favor Xiaonan. Give “Fury” a height and reach advantage, and she’s going to make every inch feel like a foot. Gomes has been compared to Jessica Andrade on more than one occasion, and Andrade’s forward pressure ran her directly into the sole KO win of Xiaonan’s UFC career.
Gomes is going to have trouble finding the target, and she’s going to get touched up in the process.
Prediction: Xiaonan via decision
Bantamweight: Aoriqileng (+310) vs. Kai Asakura (-400)Best Win for Aoriqileng? Cody Gibson For Asakura? Kyoji Horiguchi
Current Streak: Aoriqileng lost his last bout, whereas Asakura picked up his first UFC win
X-Factor: Both men have KO power
How these two match up: Somebody is taking a nap.
Aoriqileng has been consistently fun but not consistently victorious. Though he’s not particularly elite in any one facet of the game, “The Mongolian Murderer” is a sprawl-and-brawl fighter with crisp hands. Asakura is a striker as well, a lightning quick kickboxer who explodes into his offense. He has a remarkable knack for timing huge connections, and the former RIZIN champ is known for taking chances.
Aoriqileng has improved in recent years, but he’s outgunned here. Not only is Asakura faster and more powerful, but he has a more diverse arsenal of offense. There’s always a chance that Aoriqileng lands the big shot first, but we have seen his defenses overwhelmed in the past. The fact that he literally lost his last fight via knee to the body is especially concerning, as Asakura’s step and jump knees are lethal.
Asakura evens up his UFC record with a second first-round finish.
Prediction: Asakura via knockout
Flyweight: Alex Perez (+175) vs. Sumudaerji (-210)Best Win for Perez? Charles Johnson For Sumudaerji? Kevin Borjas
Current Streak: Both men enter off a “No Contest”
X-Factor: These two fought less than three months ago
How these two match up: Here we go again!
Perez, a former UFC title challenger, is a dangerous and well-rounded contender who has struggled with consistency. On paper, he’s a collegiate wrestler with slick submissions and genuine knockout power. Sometimes, that all comes together, and he looks great! Other times, he kind of falls apart (if he even makes it to the Octagon).
Sumudaerji, meanwhile, was on the fast track to contention before an unexpected trio of losses halted his momentum. The Chinese fighter took some time to improve his grappling, and has clearly improved upon his return, allowing the lanky kickboxer to start building momentum once more.
The odds here should indicate how the first fight was going. Sumudaerji was landing the better shots — including a knockdown — and stranding Perez at long range, forcing the wrestler to fall forward with his punches and takedown attempts. It wasn’t a shutout, but Sumudaerji was winning and building momentum prior to the low blow that sent Perez to the vomit bucket.
I expect him to pick up where he left off in a competitive but clear victory.
Prediction: Sumudaerji via decision
Light Heavyweight: Liu Ce (TBD) vs. Junior Tafa (TBD)Best Win for Ce? Igor Barabanov For Tafa? Parker Porter
Current Streak: Ce debuts having won his last bout, while Tafa lost his last fight
X-Factor: Ce is inexperienced in the cage
How these two match up: For once, Tafa might be the man shooting for takedowns.
Liu Ce is an accomplished professional kickboxer with a background in Sanda. Rangy at 6’5”, he’s a violent low kicker with power in his hands as well. That said, he’s only 3-1 in professional MMA, so some growing pains are still to be expected as he gets established in the Octagon. Fortunately, Tafa is a certified softball at 205 pounds. The Australian has crisp hands … and that’s it! His ground game is a consistent liability, and he lost his last appearance by low kick KO in about 90 seconds.
I don’t believe in overthinking MMA predictions. Tafa is mediocre and apparently can’t handle a hard low kick. Ce, age 29, seems to be a half-decent prospect in the longterm and definitely knows how to throw a ripping low kick. Unless Tafa has suddenly learned how to wrestle after decidedly not learning to wrestle in all his losses in recent years, he’s probably going to get taken apart by a bigger and better striker.
It should be fun for however long it lasts.
Prediction: Ce via knockout
Flyweight: Bilal Hasan (-600) vs. Nilson Rojas (+430)Best Win for Hasan? Mridul Saikia For Rojas? Gonzalo Hanampa
Current Streak: Both men debut at 9-0
X-Factor: Hasan fought on August 11!
How these two match up: Expect a thunderous display of Flyweight fireworks.
Hasan is widely regarded as one of the division’s top prospects. The former CFFC kingpin is only 25, and yet he’s already developed a reputation for nonstop action and vicious body-punching. It’s not every day a Flyweight walks into the cage with an 88% finishing rate!
Rojas, despite having the same record, does not have the same hype. Generally, he’s fought a lower level of competition, but we cannot fault his results. “El Rayo” has also finished a majority of his wins via knockout, and his style is very fan friendly. The Peruvian prospect swings for the fences, absolutely charging after his opposition intent on landing a home run.
Should Hasan be such a massive favorite in his UFC debut over a fellow young talent? Probably not. Even so, he’s definitely the sharper striker. Rojas might have the pure power edge, but Hasan is likely to find openings in his big swings. In addition, Hasan is more proven in gritty fights. His style builds well as blood begins to flow, whereas Rojas is likely to run out of steam if the early stoppage doesn’t materialize.
Could the short-notice nature of the booking or two weight cuts in three weeks backfire for Hasan? Certainly. Given his youth, however, he probably keeps the ball rolling without any visible issues.
