The Detroit Lions head to South Beach for a Week 9 interconference matchup against a young, rebuilding Miami Dolphins team.
We had the pleasure of connecting with Kevin Nogle, the Managing Editor of Phinsider to give us some insight into this Miami team ahead of Sunday’s kickoff. We learned about the local sentiment surrounding head coach Jeff Hafley’s foundational reset, how offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is tailoring the offense to quarterback Malik Willis, and how Ollie Gordon is handling the backfield
workload in De’Von Achane’s absence—plus what Miami needs to do to keep pace with Detroit’s offense.
1. Miami arguably made more changes to their organization than any other team in the NFL this offseason. New head coach, new quarterback, the changing out of long-tenured skill position players—it was a massive overhaul in South Beach.
Although the Dolphins are off to a 1-6 start, how much of that was expected from a team that underwent so many changes this offseason? It’s early, but do you get the sense that new head coach Jeff Hafley is the right guy for this rebuild?
This year is about setting up the franchise for the future, and while losses are never fun, the struggles were expected. This is the league’s youngest team, and they are facing a steep learning curve. Miami has 14 rookies on the roster, plus another seven first-year players. This is clearly a reset of the team’s foundation, and there will be growing pains.
The Dolphins’ schedule has also been brutal this year. They started the year against the Las Vegas Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Minnesota Vikings, not facing a team that had a loss until Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals, who were 2-2 coming into that game. Through Week 8, Miami has faced the league’s toughest schedule, with a combined opponent winning percentage of .589. The schedule is not an excuse, but with such a young team, it is another variable to consider.
Obviously, things can change, but Hafley has instilled confidence in the fanbase so far. The Mike McDaniel era had some fun moments, but it quickly fell apart and the team never adjusted (and McDaniel still does not seem to have made adjustments as the Los Angeles Chargers struggle this year). I think Hafley’s focus on making the Dolphins physical, allowing the younger players to gain experience, and the team’s ability to make adjustments, learn from mistakes, and continue to fight even in losing situations indicate he is the right guy for this role. Lions fans saw Dan Campbell build a culture out of tough losses back in 2021; that is exactly the phase Hafley and the Dolphins are in right now.
2. From the outside looking in, Malik Willis was dropped into a tough situation given the pieces around him in the offense—and it looks like, predictably, the passing game has struggled so far. The Dolphins rank 26th in passing DVOA and EPA/pass.
How has Bobby Slowik tried to tailor this offense to Willis’ strengths? What’s working, what’s not working, and how much of that is related to a new quarterback in a new system versus the lack of talent personnel-wise?
I think we are starting to see Willis find some comfort in the offensive system, and he is starting to play better. Despite being a third-round pick in 2022, Willis has played in only 29 career games, starting just 13. He is a league veteran but really has the starting experience of a rookie. At times, he still seems bothered by the speed of the game, but the experience he is getting this year is already making a difference in his play.
I think one of the biggest issues we have seen from Willis is a desire to be a pocket passer. He stays in the pocket longer than he should, trying to find the perfect pass rather than taking something shorter or throwing the ball away to avoid a sack. The offensive line is not doing him any favors, but he has taken multiple sacks by running out of bounds instead of throwing the ball away. He seemed to want to avoid using his legs, but has opened up that part of his game in the last couple of weeks.
Slowik, like McDaniel before him, has an offensive system built on quarterback accuracy and timing. He uses bootlegs, run-pass options, and play-action passes to get Willis out of the pocket and seeing open receivers. They also seem to be using some half-field concepts, keeping Willis looking in one area and working from deep to shallow rather than having him search the entire field for receivers.
The youth on the roster – especially with wide receivers Caleb Douglas, Chris Bell, and Kevin Coleman Jr. – do not always create separation, and drops have also been an issue. When the primary target is not open on time, a young quarterback hesitates, and behind an evolving offensive line, hesitation leads to sacks. That all relates back to the discussion of Miami’s reset this year. The potential for talent is on Miami’s roster, but they still need to grow individually and together. The coaching staff is clearly working on the balance between youth and system – relying on a more basic system as the players learn.
3. Losing De’Von Achane in the first month of the season felt especially cruel for this offense that was already so limited on difference makers. The Dolphins rank 9th in EPA/rush (-0.03) but rank near the bottom of the league in rush success rate (26th) and rush DVOA (26th), suggesting that their run game is a boom-or-bust attack.
Is that a fair assessment of Ollie Gordon’s performance this year? The Dolphins also rank 26th in stuffed rate (22.8%) which is the percentage of runs that earn zero or negative yards. Are those stuffed runs more of an indictment of the offensive line or the coaching/play calling?
That seems like a fair assessment. Gordon has been a lot of fun to watch as he breaks out this year, but he is a power-back who works extremely well as a change-of-pace option behind Achane. When he finds space, he is able to break it for a big gain, but it really is boom or bust on each run.
Part of that is Gordon and his abilities. Part of that is the offensive line finding space to get him free. And part of that is opposing defenses planning to stop the run. Miami has had success this year, averaging 131 rushing yards per game, and they have topped 100 yards in five of seven games, including one game over 150 yards and another over 200 yards. They also have two games with 74 yards rushing each. Boom or bust.
The offensive line—especially last week with Kadyn Proctor out with a concussion—still has work to do to come together as a unit.
I think play calling is part of it, but not necessarily because the plays are wrong, but rather because the player is wrong. The rushing attack was built for Achane’s skill set, complemented by Gordon. Now, it is a Gordon-led unit and some of the designs are clearly meant for Achane’s speed over Gordon’s power. We have seen that evolve as Slowik has adjusted to Gordon, but there is an obvious difference between the two players and there will likely be a boom or bust aspect to the Dolphins’ ground game all season. The outside zone, stretch concepts were designed for Achane’s elite sideline-to-sideline track speed. Gordon is a one-cut, downhill runner. The Dolphins have pivoted to more gap and inside-zone looks to match Gordon’s style, but until defenses are forced to back out of the box, stops will linger.
4. Hafley brings his decades of experience coaching defense to Miami, and the numbers related to personnel deployment and coverage usage are pretty interesting through eight weeks. Miami lines up in base personnel 51.7% of snaps, second-most in the NFL, and they’re utilizing zone coverage 78.8% of the time (10th in the NFL).
How much of these numbers overlap with the talent available on the current roster? In other words, does it feel like Hafley’s trying to put his players in the best spots to succeed? Numbers suggest the run defense is bordering on being a top-10 unit, but the pass defense might be the worst in the league. Do those numbers tell the whole story?
Hafley definitely relies on base defense and he expects his front four to create pressure, rather than relying on the blitz—especially when compared to someone like Brian Flores, a former Dolphins head coach, and his blitz heavy defense. Hafley expects the pressure to come from the front four, allowing him to keep additional players back in coverage or focused on the run. It has been successful—at least as successful as can be expected with the younger players executing on the field.
The run defense has been strong for much of the year. There have been mistakes, especially when an edge rusher bites on a play action, chasing the quarterback and failing to set the edge or runs right past the ball carrier, but overall, they are doing well against the run. Of course, I say all of that knowing full well Jahmyr Gibbs is second in the league in rushing and is averaging nearly five-yards-per-carry, so the pressure is on the defense to continue to find success this week.
Does the contrast between the pass defense and the run defense tell the entire story? Not necessarily. The heavy zone scheme with the younger defensive backs is designed to prevent explosive, 60+ yard plays. That is allowing for short and intermediate routes to pick apart defenses (especially when Miami struggles to cover tight ends. Good thing the Lions are not bringing a top-tier tight end into this game, right?!?). Add in that Miami has been playing from behind for much of the year, and the short, possession passing game has been highly effective.
I do think Hafley is keeping his defensive calls a little more basic than maybe we will see from him in the next few years, allowing the foundation to be set before he starts building off of it. The Dolphins have stressed that they expect to build for the future through the draft and grow the team from within. If they stick to that plan, I think you will see both the offense and defense evolve as the players grow and Miami moves from a roster dominated by rookies to one with veterans hitting their prime supported by key rookies each year.
5. The Dolphins opened as 7-point home underdogs over at FanDuel Sportsbook heading into this Week 9 matchup against the Lions. What’s one thing you want to see, what’s one thing you need to see, and one thing you’re sure you’ll see happen in this matchup between the Lions and Dolphins on Sunday afternoon?
I want to see the offense be aggressive and take shots downfield. The Lions are allowing 276 yards per game through the air, and they are banged up. Let Willis test them early, get Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell into the game, and use the play-action to create opportunities. The Dolphins need to come into this game feeling like they have to win in a shoot-out. If they are aggressive on offense, maybe they can catch the Lions a little flat-footed at the start.
I need to see the Dolphins continue to make adjustments week-to-week, correct mistakes from the last game, and grow as a unit. That will be true throughout this season. Continued growth week to week is important and seeing the team not make the same mistakes over and over will continue to keep Dolphins fans confident the team is headed in the right direction.
I am sure I will see the Dolphins compete in this game and play hard through the fourth quarter. They may not be biting kneecaps (I love Dan Campbell and miss him in Miami), but they should be physical and give it everything they have on every down. I am also sure I will see Campbell continue to be aggressive on third- and fourth-down. The Dolphins have allowed over 50 percent conversion for opposing offenses on third down this year. They have to expect the Lions to attack on third down, and then attack again on fourth down.
The Lions are coming into this game as the better team. They should leave Miami having proven they are the better team. But, if Miami executes well, they can at least stand toe-to-toe with Detroit throughout the game, take the punches, and fight through the final bell. Really, the Dolphins have the ability to be the 2021 Lions – growing with a first-year head coach, taking a bad season and turning it into the foundation for a brighter future. If Miami can follow the same pathway as the Lions, this would be a successful rebuild.
