Oddsmakers have given Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers the utmost respect this season. Through seven games, the only games the Niners weren’t favored to win came against the Los Angeles Rams on a short
week without Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings, and a road trip in a tough spot against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Of course, these lines aren’t always spot on. The 49ers didn’t just cover the spread that ballooned to +8.5 before the game against the Rams; they won outright. Conversely, four turnovers against the Jacksonville Jaguars cost the Niners a win and cover against a Jags team that wasn’t nearly as good as their record indicated, and that’s played out since that game.
The 49ers won convincingly over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7. The Houston Texans are 2-4 and looked lost offensively against the Seahawks in a 27-19 loss in Week 7. Yet, DeMeco Ryans’ squad is favored to beat Kyle Shanahan and company by 1.5 points, with a total of 41.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook. That is comfortably the lowest total of the season for the Niners.
Houston completely redid their offensive line this offseason. The Texans’ talent up front leaves plenty to be desired. The Texans are 23rd in the NFL in passing yards per game and 31st in rushing success rate. That might be the reason why the total in this game is so low.
So why are they favored? Statistically, this will be the second-best defense the Niners have faced. Houston sits at third in the NFL in schedule-adjusted efficiency on defense. For what it’s worth, the Falcons were first. Like Atlanta, Houston is much better against the pass than they are against the run. So, maybe it’s another game where San Francisco runs the ball at will?
Houston has played four opponents that the Niners have. They lost to the Rams on the road 14-9. They lost to the Bucs at home 20-19. They only scored 10 points in a 17-10 loss to Jacksonville on the road. Then on Monday night, 27-19 to Seattle.
Houston has star power in Will Anderson, Derek Stingley, and Nico Collins. But they can’t seem to figure out how to consistently get Collins the ball. He’s had two games with under 30 yards receiving.
Anderson will be difficult for San Francisco to slow down. He’s fourth in the NFL in quick pressures with 15. Anderson also has one of the fastest get-off times in the league and the highest pressure rates. Danielle Hunter, on the other side, is no slouch, either. In the secondary, Stingley and Jalen Pitre can match up against anybody.
But then you see Jaxon Smith-Njigba go off for 123 yards. In Week 1, Puka Nacua had 130 yards against the Texans. It’d be nice for the 49ers if they got Ricky Pearsall back. It’d be even nicer if they featured George Kittle in the passing game a week after Kittle didn’t record a reception.
Should the Texans be favored over the 49ers?
