If you simply look at the win column, the Cincinnati Reds are rolling at the moment. Winners of 6 of their first 9 games of the year, they’re fresh off a road sweep of the Texas Rangers, and they now roll into Miami to face a Marlins club that’s also 6-3 to start this year.
The Marlins, though, at least can boast a +8 run differential. Cincinnati, on the other hand, sits with a -4 run differential, a fact that’s largely due to them having scored fewer runs than all but the San Francisco Giants among
MLB teams so far this season.
The offense, shall we say, has mostly stunk – at least on the actual production side. Their .288 team wOBA ranks 25th on the season, though their .316 xwOBA – their expected production – is a much more respectable 13th, tied with the New York Yankees so far. So, there’s at least some optimism that things will improve, even though the sure have been fruitless at the plate so far.
That’s put an outsized importance on the pitching so far, and just about every single member of the staff has held up their end of the bargain in the absence of both Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. The lone real exception to that has been Brandon Williamson, who was shelled in his first start of the year.
That start just so happened to be his first time on a mound in any affiliated game in a year and a half, though, as his recovery from Tommy John surgery cost him all of the 2025 season. The hope is that he’ll continue to work his way back into form as his velocity is actually better now than it had been, and on Monday in Miami he’ll get his second chance of the season to show that’s the case.
First pitch is set for 6:40 PM ET, and the Reds will line up like this:
