A couple of weeks ago we introduced the stages of suck. Since we introduced the stages of suck, the Houston Texans are 2-0 and have outscored their opponents 70-10. We are continuing the stages for two very important reasons. First, some questions remain unanswered and probably will be unanswered through the end of the season. Secondly, as irrational as it may be, they started succeeding when we openly mentioned sucking. Maybe the stages of suck are serving as proper motivation.
There were two questions
surrounding C.J. Stroud. The first and easiest question to answer is whether he is the quarterback of the future for this team. That is a lower bar to clear. The second question is whether he is really is one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL like we thought he was after 2023. That one is a harder question to answer. So, in order to do that we need to look at the aggregate over five games. Every quarterback will have a dud along the way and every quarterback will have a Ryan Fitzpatrick five touchdown bonanza. The hope is that these duds and career days average each other out and we see what a guy really is.
We will look at several key statistics to evaluate performance. Some quarterbacks do damage with their legs, so I like to combine passing yards and rushing yards into total yards. Some teams have played only four games, so we will look on a per game basis. We will look at total passing and rushing touchdowns, yards per attempt, completion percentage, and rating.
- Yards Per Game: 238.4
- Touchdowns: 8
- Yards Per Attempt: 7.5
- PCT: 70.8
- Rating: 102.1
As many times as we have railed against the offense this season, we have to acknowledge that he is on pace to have the best season of his three year career. Stroud has shown significant improvement in his completion percentage and passer rating. He will eclipse 4000 total yards if he stays on this pace and remains healthy. A large chunk of that can be attributed to an improved use of his legs in key moments. So, it would be overly simplistic, but I think the first question is answered so far. THIS C.J. Stroud is definitely the quarterback you want moving forward.
The elite question is a different question entirely and is a lot like nailing Jell-O on a wall. How many quarterbacks are truly elite? Are we talking five? Ten? Half the league? Are there some other method that we can use to separate the wheat from the chaff? The good news is that if we use a 100 rating as the line of demarcation, Stroud already finds himself in the top half of the league so far this season. Prominent quarterbacks like Caleb Williams, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert are on the outside looking in, but a great performance or two could put them back in that group.
If we use the same numbers as above, we can divide these quarterbacks into two tiers. Obviously, some names have more cache than others. We are talking pure numbers after just five weeks of the season. Whether these names wind up there in the end is anyone’s best guess. However, we are talking pure performance and pure performance alone.
Obviously, some of these names stick out like a sore thumb. Few people think of Daniel Jones and Drake Maye as elite quarterbacks. Maybe people should start thinking of Maye that way after his Sunday night performance. Darnold is probably not thought of as elite, but he was elite last year and is elite so far this season. So, maybe there is something to that. The other five are names we are all very familiar with. Whether all of them are actually elite or if they are in a system that makes them look elite is one of those semantical debates we can have at another time.
What these numbers show is the science that goes behind how they come up with quarterback rating. We see that all of these quarterbacks have high yards per attempt and all but Stafford have high completion percentages. The path forward for C.J. Stroud is the same. He needs to continue to accept positive yards even it means checking it down. Doing so will up both of those totals and possibly get him into this group.
Stroud fits nicely in this group. Obviously, some players have created more yards per game. Virtually all of them have created more touchdowns so far on the season. Yet, he is second in completion percentage, first in yards per attempt, and third in quarterback rating. I’d say he fits pretty comfortably in this group. Obviously, different people will feel a certain way about some or all of these guys. That is part of the charm of putting them all in a group like this.
When we are categorizing players, there are two different ways in which we can do that statistically. Obviously, the eyeball test also exists, but eyewitness testimony is infamously unreliable and biased. In terms of the stats, we can simply look at his ranking in each of the categories. We can then look at a composite ranking or simply ballpark where those collective numbers would rank him in the group. The second method is something that Bill James called “similarity scores.” In other words, you looked at the players most similar to him across the board in various stats. Lets start with the first method.
- Yards per game: 13th
- TTD: Tied for 13th
- YPA: Tied for 9th
- Completion Percentage: 7th
- Rating: 11th
If we were to go with the composite for these numbers we would probably wind up somewhere around 10th or 11th among current starting quarterbacks. Obviously, some key names like Joe Burrow have been left out because they are injured. So, at least statistically we could comfortably put Stroud in the top dozen quarterbacks in the league. Is that elite? Obviously, that depends on your definition of elite. As for similarity scores, we will look at the three quarterbacks closest to him in each category. Let’s see which names are repeated the most often.
- Yards Per game: Jared Goff, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold
- TTD: Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones
- YPA: Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, Caleb Williams, Justin Fields
- Completion Percentage: Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, Dak Prescott
- Rating: Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott
Stroud fans are probably not going to like this answer. The name that popped up the most often was Aaron Rodgers. Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, and Daniel Jones also popped up multiple times. A part of the beauty of similarity scores is that they allow you to compare players that you may not be emotionally involved with. We are fans of Stroud. We are invested in his success. Those other quarterbacks may not be on our fan radar depending on who you love and hate.
The question then has to be asked. Are those quarterbacks elite in your mind? If the answer is no (and I am suspecting that is the case for most of them) then your quarterback is also likely not elite. Of course, no methodology is perfect. Every player plays in unique circumstances. So, if we go across multiple tests and multiple methods we hopefully arrive at the truth. As it stands today, Stroud is likely not an elite quarterback. He has time to change that perception though, so let’s see what happens the rest of the season.
