Despite the speculation of a frenzied period to sign players before the expiry of the CBA at 11:59 pm on December 1st, it’s been all quiet on the free agent front around the league. Nary a peep has been heard from the Yankees front office as to players they are potentially pursuing, making for a rather lifeless offseason so far since being swept out of the ALDS. Mostly, news has centered on end-of-season awards, the most immediate roster decision mile markers being the November 17th deadline to protect
players from the Rule 5 Draft and the November 20th non-tender deadline.
Today, we will cover the players under consideration for Rule 5 protection. We’ll begin with the disclaimer that there is a strong likelihood that the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft will be cancelled this offseason, just as it was during the previous lockout during the 2021-2022 offseason, as it is scheduled to fall during the December 7-9 Winter Meetings that are largely expected to be cancelled with no CBA in place. The MLBPA proposed moving the Rule 5 Draft up to the end of the November so that it can take place before the expiry of the current CBA, but that was back on July 1st and we have not heard anything on the matter since.
That being said, this still might be a useful exercise to refamiliarize ourselves with the players who did enough in 2026 to merit consideration to be added to the 40-man roster. The Rule 5 Draft was created to prevent teams from suppressing players in the minors who might otherwise have a shot to make the major league roster of another team. Any player who joined an organization at age 18 or younger must be added to the 40-man roster within five seasons while players who joined aged 19 or older must be added within four season or else risk exposure to the Rule 5 Draft. Any team who selects a player from another organization in the draft must pay the original team $100,000, and the selected player must be added to the 26-man active roster for the subsequent season. If a team wishes to remove that player from the 26-man roster during the season, the player must be placed on outright waivers, and should he clear waivers, must be offered back to the original team for half the draft price ($50,000).
The Yankees have 49 players who are Rule 5 eligible by virtue of not currently inhabiting a 40-man roster spot and their minor league service time:
The vast majority of these players will not be added to the 40-man roster for protection. There is either high confidence that said player would not be selected in the Rule 5 Draft or that said player is not one the Yankees would mind losing to the Rule 5 Draft. However, with seven open spots on the 40-man roster, the Yankees have some wiggle room to protect a handful of players while still maintaining flexibility to add additional players via free agency or trade.
In my mind, there is only one surefire lock to be added to the 40-man roster in this prospective scenario, and that’s Carlos Lagrange. A consensus top-three organizational prospect, Lagrange was already on the major league radar for a potential late season call-up to the bullpen before a shoulder injury derailed the second half of his season. Evaluators are split as to whether the Yankees should continue his development as a starter or commit to moving him to the bullpen full time. However, he can certainly impact the big league bullpen as soon as next season with his triple-digits heater and at times plus secondaries of cutter, sweeper, and changeup, especially with David Bednar and Paul Blackburn hitting free agency and Fernando Cruz suffering a partially torn UCL at the end of August. Lagrange has always struggled with his command, but reined in his walk rate to a more palatable 11.6-percent while still striking out almost 30-percent of batters in 64.1 innings at Triple-A in 2026.
On the position player side, there’s not a lot that jumps off the page. Roderick Arias is the most recognizable name after signing for $4 million as the No. 1 ranked prospect of the 2022 international class. However, he has steadily fallen down the organization’s prospect rankings and has yet to reach Triple-A after five years in the organization. He split time between High-A and Double-A in 2026, posting a 107 wRC+ with 16 home runs, 84 RBIs, and 38 steals in 128 games, but struck out 30-percent of the time between the two levels.
Tyler Hardman has seemingly been in the organization for ages, but only just got his first taste of Triple-A in 2026. He went from a 157 wRC+ in Double-A to a mark of 80 in Triple-A, but did slug 28 home runs in 134 games across both levels. However, I’m not sure how much interest there would be from other teams or indeed major league breakout potential for a career minor leaguer about to enter his age-28 season. Infielders Josh Moylan and Coby Morales and outfielders Jace Avina, Cole Gabrielson, and Garrett Martin all put together decent campaigns at Double-A, but nothing extraordinary enough to merit 40-man consideration.
Things get a little more interesting on the pitching side of things. The Yankees boast a trio of intriguing high octane arms who could work their ways into the major league bullpen discussion in the not-too-distant future. Allen Facundo rocketed up the organizational ranking list last year after going 7-3 in 22 starts with a 4.01 ERA, 4.09 FIP, and 148 strikeouts in 114.1 innings between Low and High-A. Eric Reyzelman has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen in the minors, and has struck out an eye-popping 199 batters in just 144 career minor league innings. Hayden Merda posted gaudy strikeout totals in 2026 but saw his ERA spike upon making the jump from Double-A to Triple-A. All three have touched triple digits with their heaters along with the potential for 60-grade sliders. Precipitously high walk rates for the trio likely rule them out of long term rotation plans, but they all possess fastballs that are absolutely major league ready from a raw stuff standpoint.
Beyond that pair, I wouldn’t be that interested to protect any of their other Rule 5 eligible pitching prospects. Lefty starter Brock Selvidge posted a 4.68 ERA in 18 starts between Complex ball and Double-A in 2025 but missed the 2026 season after undergoing an internal brace procedure. Given the depth of Yankees starting pitching, lower level starters Cade Smith and Luis Serna are still miles away from major league consideration. Harrison Cohen, Carson Coleman, and Zach Messinger are all Triple-A relievers 27 years old or older, the former pair finding that level a step too far while Messinger simply does not possess major league stuff. Thomas Balboni Jr. is an interesting higher velo sidearm guy but only just made it to High-A after blowing out his elbow in 2025.
