Holy cow. 42 years of watching baseball prepares you for so many things. So many days, you “feel” what is going to happen next. Obviously, I liked this matchup on paper for this game. Chase Petty has a pretty decent pedigree, but he hadn’t yet established himself at the major league level. I doubt any memoirs will be written about his first 2026 start, 5.2 innings and three runs allowed. But against a Cub offense that has been terrific, four hits and two walks in just shy of six innings is a good
outcome. Cub starter Edward Cabrera bested him by just one out. But he allowed the same three runs and two walks. But his outing came with nine hits. The Reds had constant traffic and save for one inning, Petty was real effective.
So it was that as this one got into the late innings and after Ben Brown yielded a run in the eighth, this one felt like it might be a loss. But then, that pesky Cub offense loaded the bases in the eighth. Maybe. Maybe they could at least tie it. But when they left the bases loaded, you could feel it deflate. And why not, really? The Reds had basically an 84 percent chance to win after the eighth inning.
I saw Ryan Rolison pitch for the first time. What an impressive performance it was. He faced three batters, struck them all out and then had some serious vibes going as he walked off the field. It will be so easy to do, but we shouldn’t overlook how important it is to go lock it down in that spot. It changes the whole energy of the inning if that is a two run (or more) deficit in the bottom of the ninth. Still, this Reds team is in contention through this point in the season, basically because they’ve won literally every close game that they have played. This was a tall task. Even after Rolison froze that lead at one, the Cubs still had only a 19.5 percent chance of winning heading to the bottom of the ninth.
The data I saw said that the ball Pete Crow-Armstrong hit to start the ninth inning would have been a homer in 17 parks. Credit for Pete for busting it out of the box and getting a relatively easy triple after the ball dropped against the wall. The biggest drama there was him holding on to the base after a full speed slide into third. Additional kudos for Pete coming through after two quick strikes on him. After his triple, the Cubs jumped all of the way up to 58.3 percent chance of winning. That was about as big of a WPA play as we’ve seen. At least for a few more batters.
Then Dansby Swanson struck out. That dropped the Cubs back down to a 40.9 percent chance of winning. Outs are SO valuable. So valuable, in fact, that when Nico Hoerner hit the decently deep fly ball that I’m sure most of us expected, the chance of winning only bounced up to 53.4 percent. A tie game with two outs in the ninth is largely a coin flip.
You had to expect Michael Conforto to get to bat for Matt Shaw in that spot. What I would never have guessed is that Michael Conforto, in what has been a pretty decent career, had never hit a walk-off homer. His 180th career homer isn’t an insane number to never have one. With a career that has seen him go from the Mets to the Giants to the Dodgers (and now the Cubs), it feels like he’s been around some good teams. In a season of amazing things, Michael’s first ever walk-off homer is also his first homer for the Cubs. He crushed it, too. There wasn’t a lot of drama in it getting out. I’m fully aware of the late career bench players the Cubs have had in recent years. I also know that at 32 years old, he wasn’t very valuable for the Dodgers and wasn’t playing by the time they reached the postseason (despite 122 games started for them).
From Cabrera’s quality start, to Seiya Suzuki’s monstrous three-run, game-tying homer, to Rolison’s dominant inning, to PCA’s triple, to Nico’s sacrifice fly to Conforto’s walk-off, this one was thrilling throughout. It feels like the term “playoff baseball” maybe gets thrown around too easily. But, this felt like a big game for May 4. Every one of those contributions I mentioned above and several others that helped set the stage contributed to an exciting and fulfilling game.
Six straight wins. 12 straight wins at home. 16 of 19 overall. This team is blazing hot. In the division that has been the best one in baseball so far, the Cubs are creating a little space in the standings. What a time to be alive!
Three Positives:
- It feels impossible to pick just three. Conforto has to get this top spot for the game winner. Great moment for him. Great moment for the team.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong started the rally with his triple and then scored. The OPS trickles up to .667.
- Seiya Suzuki for the giant three-run homer. He had a single and a walk as well. It isn’t often that a three-run, game-tying homer while down three gets upstaged by not one but two other high value plays.
The Cubs ended up with six hits and six walks. That’s a pretty good performance by the Reds pitching staff.
Game 35, May 4: Cubs 5, Reds 4 (23-12)
WPA Graph
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Michael Conforto (.466). 1-1, HR, RBI, R
- 3rd largest WPA score of the year. Conforto also has the 2nd highest (4/19 against the Mets)
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.29). 1-4, 3B, R
- Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.26). 2-3, HR, BB, 3 RBI, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.27). 0-4
- Goat: Ben Brown (-.20). IP, 5 BF, H, BB, ER, K
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.17). 0-3, BB
WPA Play of the Game: Michael Conforto’s walk-off, game-winning homer. (.466)
*Reds Play of the Game: Ke’Bryan Hayes hir a two-out, two-run home in the second gave the Reds a three-run lead. (.199)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 34 Winner: Michael Bush received 43% of the votes (94 votes)
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Conforto +10
- Nico Hoerner +9.5
- Shōta Imanaga +7
- Pete Crow-Armstrong/Caleb Thielbar/Phil Maton/Jacob Webb -6
- Matt Shaw -9
- Seiya Suzuki -11
Current Win Pace: 106.45
Up Next: Game two of the four-game set between these two teams. Jameson Taillon (2-1, 4.41, 34.2 IP) makes his seventh start of the season. Last time he allowed three runs over seven innings of work, allowing only three hits and one walk at San Diego. The Reds start 26-year-old Andrew Abbott (1-2, 5.97, 34.2 IP) who will be making his eighth start of the season. Abbott was the second round pick of the Reds in 2021 (53rd overall). The Cubs are only 5-5 when the other team starts a lefty but 18-7 when they start a righty.
Bringing back a discussion that ran through much of last season, the Cubs actually have a pretty considerable lead on best OPS versus lefties at .830. They have an .037 lead on the Dodgers. That same gap again would drop down to ninth. So the Cubs have separated from the pack that way. They are .056 behind the Braves against righties (.761). This same exact phenomenon existed all of last year. The Cubs hit lefties well, but don’t end up winning for whatever variety of reasons.
13 in a row at home would be an amazing feat. I don’t know about you, but I’m just fine if they want to keep on going.
Go Cubs!
